Grist | Topics | 133 Results

RESULTS		Results 101 – 125 of 133
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Headline	Author	Published	Section
'They predicted global cooling in the 1970s' There was a bit of speculation, but nothing even remotely resembling today's consensus	Coby Beck	24 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: The alarmists were predicting the onset of an ice age in the '70s. Now it's too much warming! Why should we believe them this time? Answer: It is true that there were some predictions of an "imminent ice age" in the 1970s, but a cursory comparison of those warnings and today's reveals a huge difference.Today, you have a widespread scientific consensus, supported by national academies a ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?' Understanding what is happening right under our noses does not require paleoclimate perfection	Coby Beck	23 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Climate science can't even fully explain why the climate did what it did in the past. How can they claim to know what is going on today? Answer: There are two requirements for understanding what happened at a particular point of climate change in geological history. One is an internally consistent theory based on physical principles; the other is sufficient data to determine the physical p ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Chaotic systems are not predictable' Sure, but who says climate is chaotic?	Coby Beck	22 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Climate is an inherently chaotic system, and as such its behavior can not be predicted. Answer: Firstly, let's make sure we define climate: an average of weather patterns over some meaningful time period. We may thus discount the chaotic annual fluctuations of global mean temperature. That's weather, and one or two anomalous years does not represent a climate shift. Quite a few people beli ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'We can't even predict the weather next week' But weather is not climate -- that's why we have two distinct words	Coby Beck	21 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Scientists can't even predict the weather next week, so why should we believe what some climate model tells us about 100 years from now? Answer: Climate and weather are very different things, and the level of predictability is comparably different. Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time -- generally around 30 years. This averaging smooths out the random and unpredic ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Aerosols should mean more warming in the south' Greater Northern Hemisphere warming is well-understood	Coby Beck	20 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Scientists claim that global warming from greenhouse gases is being countered somewhat by global dimming from aerosol pollution. They even claim that aerosol pollution caused the cooling in the mid-century. But GHGs are evenly mixed around the globe, while aerosols are disproportionately concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. It follows that warming should be greater in the Southern Hemisp ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Climate models are unproven' Actually, GCM's have many confirmed successes under their belts	Coby Beck	19 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Why should we trust a bunch of contrived computer models that have never had a prediction confirmed? Talk to me in 100 years. Answer: Given the absence of a few duplicate planets and some large time machines, we can't test a 100-year temperature projection. Does that mean the models can't be validated without waiting 100 years? No. The climate is an extremely complex system. Our observations of ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Models don't take clouds into account' Clouds are complex and uncertain, but are not likely to save us from warming	Coby Beck	18 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Clouds are a large negative feedback that will stop any drastic warming. The climate models don't even take cloud effects into account. Answer: All of the atmospheric global climate models used for the kind of climate projections synthesized by the IPCC take the effects of clouds into account. You can read a discussion about cloud processes and feedbacks in the IPCC TAR. It is true, however, th ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Peiser refuted Oreskes' In a poor piece of work that has been retracted by its author	Coby Beck	17 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Sure, Oreskes found no one bucking the consensus, but her paper was refuted by Benny Peiser, who did the exact same survey and found very different results. Answer: True, Benny Peiser did attempt a similar study and submitted it as a letter to Science responding to the Oreskes study. But for very good reasons, it was not published. Peiser claimed to find 34 articles in his 'reject or doubt t ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Consensus is collusion' Is climate science maturing, or should we reach for our tinfoil hats?	Coby Beck	16 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: More and more, climate models share all the same assumptions -- so of course they all agree! And every year, fewer scientists dare speak out against the findings of the IPCC, thanks to the pressure to conform. Answer: The growing confluence of model results and the increasingly similar physical representations of the climate system from model to model may well look like sharing code or tweaking ' ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

Is today's warming man-made? Here's why the scientific community thinks so	Andrew Dessler	15 Nov 2006	Gristmill
This is a 'greatest hit' from my previous blog. It's a topic that comes up all the time, so I think it's worth a reprise. ----- As George Bush said at a recent press conference: 'the globe is warming. The fundamental debate: Is it manmade or natural?' Why does the scientific community think humans are significantly contributing to today's warming? To understand why, first recognize that whenever the climate shifts, there's a reason for it. It does not wande ...
Topics: climate, climate change adaptation, climate change skepticism, climate science (all these topics)

'Position statements hide debate' True enough, but that is not the whole picture	Coby Beck	15 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: All those institutional position statements are fine, but by their very nature they paper over debate and obscure the variety of individual positions. The real debate is in the scientific journals. Answer: This is a fair point. Group position statements are designed to present a united front. The best indicator of what individual scientists think is in the current scientific literature, where n ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'There is no consensus' If this is not consensus, what would consensus look like?	Coby Beck	14 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Climate is complicated and there are lots of competing theories and unsolved mysteries. Until this is all worked out, one can't claim there is consensus on global warming theory. Until there is, we should not take any action. This is similar to the "global warming is a hoax" article, but at least here we can narrow down just what the consensus is about. Answer: Sure there are plenty o ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Global warming is a hoax' I wish James Inhofe were just a hoax ...	Coby Beck	13 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Global warming is a hoax perpetrated by environmental extremists and liberals who want an excuse for more big government (and/or world government via the U.N.). This is a common line, regardless of how ridiculous it is, so it should not go unanswered. Answer: Here is a list of organizations that accept anthropogenic global warming as real and scientifically well-supported: NASA's Goddard Ins ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Some sites show cooling' But you can't draw global conclusions from individual sites.	Coby Beck	12 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Some stations, in the U.S. for example, show cooling trends. If there were really global warming, it would be warming everywhere. Answer: Global warming is the long-term increase in globally and seasonally averaged surface temperatures. It is not the case, nor is it expected, that all regions on the planet, let alone all weather stations, will show the same changes in temperature or rainfall patte ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high' Actually, thermal inertia of the oceans means the jury is still out on that one	Coby Beck	11 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Taking into account the logarithmic effect of CO2 on temperature, the 35 percent increase we have already seen in CO2 concentrations represents about three-quarters of the total forcing to be expected from a CO2 doubling. Since we have warmed about 0.7 degrees Celsius so far, we should only expect about 0.3 degrees more for a doubling from pre-industrial levels, so about 1 degree total, not 3 degrees ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Sea level in the Arctic is falling' Sea level is a surprisingly complicated thing	Coby Beck	10 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: According to the latest state-of-the-art satellite measurements from over the Arctic, sea levels are falling! Guess all that ice isn't melting after all. Answer: Yes, a new study using Europe's Space Agency's ERS-2 satellite has determined that over the last 10 years, sea level in the Arctic Ocean has been falling at an average rate of about 2 mm/year. This is very new and very interesting news, t ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Antarctic sea ice is increasing' Yes, but ...	Coby Beck	09 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Sure, sea ice is shrinking in the Arctic, but it is growing in the Antarctic. Sounds like natural fluctuations that balance out in the end. Answer: Overall, it is true that sea ice in the Antarctic is increasing. Around the peninsula, where there is a lot of warming [PDF], the ice is retreating. This is the area of the recent and dramatic Larsen B and Ross ice shelf breakups. But the rest of ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'But the glaciers are not melting' Except ... they are!	Coby Beck	08 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Sure, some glaciers are melting. But if you look at the studies, most of those for which we have data are growing. Answer: This is simply not true, rumors on "the internets" aside. The National Snow and Ice Data Centre and their State of the Cryosphere division, on their Glacial Balance page, report an overall accelerating rate of glacial mass loss. The World Glacier Monitoring Servi ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Global warming stopped in 1998' Only if you flagrantly cherry pick	Coby Beck	07 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Global temperatures have been trending down since 1998. Global warming is over. Answer: At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analyses. In fact, it blew away the previous record by .2 degrees C. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!) According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'Antarctic ice is growing' Well, probably not, but even if it were, we are not off the hook	Coby Beck	06 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: The Antarctic ice sheets are actually growing, which wouldn't be happening if global warming were real. Answer: There are two distinct problems with this argument. First, any argument that tries to use a regional phenomenon to disprove a global trend is dead in the water. Anthropogenic global warming theory does not predict uniform warming throughout the globe. We need to assess the balance of ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'What about mid-century cooling?' No one said CO2 is the only climate influence	Coby Beck	05 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: There was global cooling in the '40s, '50s, and '60s, even while human greenhouse-gas emissions were rising. Clearly, temperature is not being driven by CO2. Answer: None of the advocates of the theory of anthropogenic global warming claim that CO2 is the only factor controlling temperature in the ocean-atmosphere climate system. It is a large and complex system, responsive on many different tim ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'The satellites show cooling' No, they don't	Coby Beck	04 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Satellite readings, which are much more accurate, show that the earth is in fact cooling. I wonder how long before this one stops coming up? Answer: There are a few advantages to the satellite readings,mainly the more uniform global coverage and the fact that readings can be taken at different altitudes. However, it is an extremely complicated process which uses microwaves emitted by the oxygen i ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'It's cold today in Wagga Wagga' Weather and climate are different	Coby Beck	03 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: It was way colder than normal today in Wagga Wagga, proof that there is no global warming. Does this even deserve an answer? If we must ... Answer: The chaotic nature of weather means that no conclusion about climate can ever be drawn from a single data point, hot or cold. The temperature of one place at one time is just weather, and says nothing about climate, much less climate change, much less ...
Topics: climate science, climate change skepticism, climate, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

'The temperature record is simply unreliable' Perhaps, but temperature trends are clear and widely corroborated	Coby Beck	02 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: The surface temperature record is full of assumptions, corrections, differing equipment and station settings, changing technology, varying altitudes, and more. It is not possible to claim we know what the "global average temperature" is, much less determine any trend. The IPCC graphs only say what the scientists want them to say. Answer: There is actually some truth to the part about ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic, IPCC (all these topics)

'Glaciers have always grown and receded' A few glaciers melting does not mean global warming	Coby Beck	01 Nov 2006	Gristmill
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: A few glaciers receding today is not proof of global warming. Glaciers have grown and receded differently in many times and places. Answer: Firstly, it is more than "a few glaciers" that are receding; it is a pervasive, sustained, and accelerating global trend. The National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) maintains a chart of global glacier mass balance, and for as far back as ...
Topics: climate, climate change skepticism, climate science, How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (all these topics)

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