The Climate Post is a weekly roundup of climate news, produced by the The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University.

First Things First: When we last left our Senate, Barbara Boxer suggested a bill, similar to the one that the House passed in June, would be ready for the Environment and Public Works committee on its first day back. That was Tuesday. Political reality, the complexity of legislation, and Sen. John Kerry’s  recent hip surgery have together postponed the Senate climate debate. Everyone, even on the many “islands” of the climate archipelago, is talking about health care after the president’s major address last night, and that legislation may take up most of the Senate’s calendar this fall. Boxer has indicated the climate bill will come by the end of the month. Proponents and opponents are unlikely to similarly delay their intensifying debate about economic costs; a New York University center just weighed in with a new “informal analysis” [pdf]. Whatever the course of the bill, other parts of the Capitol are going ahead with their own green reforms.

The Senate delay clouds up skies above Copenhagen, where international climate negotiators will assemble in less than three months to hash out a potential global agreement. Without passage of a Senate bill, the U.S. team is expected to have less clout to pull together the fractured international debate. The United Nations-guided process is riven by disagreements between rich and poor nations. The two most significant from each group, the U.S. and China, will continue their high-level engagements this fall, when President Barack Obama travels to Beijing. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) told reporters in the Chinese capital this week, “I’d place higher odds on the ability of the United States and China to reach an agreement than I would on us passing legislation or on having Copenhagen agreed.”

Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, has called for an aggressive national 2020 target of greenhouse gas emission cuts 25 percent below 1990 levels. Echoing statements made by U.S. officials, Hatoyama acknowledged that Japan’s own actions won’t solve the problem, but may speed along international talks. Japan’s largest business group has opposed targets more aggressive than 6 percent reductions. The new goal comes with a sizable caveat, that all other major economies ratify similarly stringent programs.

Oxford Economist Dieter Helm pinpoints a–perhaps the–central problem in international climate policy: Very little in humans’ history of acting as individuals or individual nations (and eschewing outside help), prepares us for a species-wide concern, such as global warming. In a brief excerpt posted by Roger Pielke Jr., Helm questions the utility of the EU reducing its emissions when the looming problem is coal-burning in China and India. One might just as well ask, Why buy solar panels for the roof when the world might see lower net atmospheric carbon levels, and it might be cheaper, if you just bought more efficient refrigerators for carbon-intensive neighbors on either side? (Novelty story of the week: This question would have a different answer if these hair-based solar panels, designed by a Nepalese 18-year-old, worked at scale and solved all energy woes.)

Assembling Armadas: Groups opposed to climate policy earned headlines in August for holding rallies or threatening spectacular legal challenges. The days before Congress’ return were marked by further consternation in the environmental community, when the president’s highly visible “green jobs” tsar, Van Jones, resigned amid controversy over recent comments and past positions. This week environmentalists tried to establish their own momentum, with the launch of Clean Energy Works, a coalition of climate hawks that boasts organizers in 28 states and plenty of voices in Washington. Discussion about how to talk about climate change continues, as Joe Romm at Climate Progress contributes this behind-party-lines look at messaging, highlighting this challenging puzzle: “Tell me in one sentence what team Obama says happens if we fail to pass the climate and clean energy bill.” (The link is rated PG for mild profanity in the headline.)

This announcement overshadowed the latest offering from a growing cadre of national security hawks. For the last several years figures such as former CIA director James Woolsey, former Secretary of State George Schultz, and former National Security Advisor Robert McFarlane, have brought attention to the potential defense and geopolitical implications of climate change. They now belong to the Partnership for a Secure America, a bipartisan “who’s who” of former senators, Cabinet secretaries, and White House officials, who have unveiled a letter linking climate change to national security issues and imploring the sitting government to act decisively and promptly.

Uncertain national affairs are weighing down carbon prices in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the carbon market that 10 states participate in from Maine to Maryland. The price for a credit to emit a ton of carbon dioxide has fallen below $2.60, because of the Senate delay, a drop in national gas prices, and general emission levels below original expectations because of the recession.

I was the Walrus: Thousands of Pacific walruses are herding in shallow waters and on land along Alaska’s northwest coast, apparently for reasons less felicitous than to try out the brand new Beatles “Rock Band” game and digitally re-mastered song catalog. This summer looks to be the third most extensive Arctic sea-ice melt on record, behind 2007 and 2005. As the ice vanishes so too does the walruses’ habitat. Clamoring for food and safety on land may bring environmental stresses and crowding that ultimately make shorelines increasingly difficult places for such large congregations.

Geoff Brumfiel at Nature’s “The Great Beyond” picks a head-scratching phase-space graph out of a prominent Royal Society scientific report on geoengineering, and traces how headline-writers struggled with it. The contrasts among the articles in the Register, Financial Times, USA Today, and elsewhere are quite striking (amusing), and reinforce why it’s so nice to have multiple news sources: The differences among them are the best indication of either what’s going on or how difficult it is to ascertain what’s going on.

How to Sound Fancy but Engage in Crass Rhetoric: If you, like Climate Post, are one of the few Americans whose primary association with the word “socialism” is Soviet terror-as-governance and the arbitrary murder of countless millions, then these are confusing times to read about health care and climate debates, in which that moniker seems to apply widely. In a setting as slapdash as this one, the only rebuttal that time permits to Jim Manzi’s recent essay at “The Daily Dish” is a poke at the headline, “The Socialism Implicit in the Social Cost of Carbon.” Just sayin’.

Eric Roston is Senior Associate at the Nicholas Institute and author of The Carbon Age: How Life’s Core Element Has Become Civilization’s Greatest Threat. Prologue available at Grist

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A new coalition of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans is hoping to counter the oil industry–backed "Energy Citizens" rallies with its own call to pass a climate bill and end dependence on fossil fuels.

Under the name of Operation Free, the group aims to rally other vets to the cause. "We're a coalition of leading veterans and national security organizations who recognize that climate change is a major threat, and support fast, bold action," reads its website. "It is time for Americans to rise to the challenge, and we're taking on the fight."

In a call with reporters on Thursday, Operation Free members argued that dependence on foreign energy sources and threats posed by climate change put American military personnel and national security at risk.

"As a former U.S. Army captain and a veteran of Iraq, I understand firsthand how our dependence on foreign oil is a threat to national security," said Jon Powers, chief operating officer at the Truman National Security Project, a sponsor of Operation Free. "We're looking to Washington to take this threat seriously and come up with policy that reduces the threat to national security."

Maine State Rep. Alex Cornell du Houx, an Iraq War veteran and Operation Free's campaign coordinator, said that his time in Iraq made him realize the hazards of being dependent on other nations and on a single major energy source like oil. He criticized the American Petroleum Institute, which is organizing the "Energy Citizens" rallies: "It is really disheartening how a front group is watering down any meaningful debate," he said. "The Energy Citizens is making America less secure."

Operation Free's first major event will be in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 9 and 10, when 100 veterans will come to the capital to lobby for a Senate climate and energy bill. The group is also spreading its message through the internet and in-person outreach, as well as through partnerships with national security organizations and other nonprofits.

The Operation Free website uses military terminology to try to engage support. "Mission: Secure America with Renewable Energy," declares the site, asking volunteers to “enlist” in the cause and “deploy in support of Operation Free.” Each page prominently features a photo of a hand holding a gun with an oil fire burning in the distance.

Kevin Jones, an Iraq veteran, student at the University of Missouri, and vice president of the Mizzou Student Veterans Association, said he would see oil and fuel trucks in Iraq "lined up, one right after another." "It's disheartening to know that we're so dependent on a source like that," said Jones. "There are brand new, renewable sources available right here."

Operation Free is supported by the the National Security Initiative, VoteVets.org, VetPAC, and the Truman National Security Project.

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The changing global climate will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, military and intelligence analysts say.

Such climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions, say the analysts, experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies who for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change.

So begins the excellent lead story by John Broder in Saturday's NY Times. This won't surprise regular readers -- indeed, last September I wrote about an unusually savvy new intelligence forecast on global risks "previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst," which

... envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming decades, as the world is reshaped by globalization, battered by climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.

The report ... also concludes that one key area of continued U.S. superiority -- military power -- will "be the least significant" asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because "nobody is going to attack us with massive conventional force."

Thank you George Bush and Dick Cheney and your fellow deniers for delaying action so long as to make such an outcome all but inevitable!

The photo in the article is from Darfur.  The NYT notes, "The conflict in southern Sudan, which has killed and displaced tens of thousands of people, is partly a result of drought in Darfur."  A 2007 Atlantic Monthly piece, "The Real Roots of Darfur," went further, asserting, "The violence in Darfur is usually attributed to ethnic hatred. But global warming may be primarily to blame."

And we haven't even warmed 1°C yet!  We're facing more than five times as much warming this century as the last century on our current emissions path.  How much conflict and misery will be caused when we have turned one third of the Earth's inhabited land mass into a Dust Bowl, when sea levels are more than a meter higher, and the oceans are an increasingly hot, acidified dead zone (which is what the second half of the century holds in store when we blow past 550 ppm on route to 850 to 1000 ppm or more)?

The NYT offers this grim scenario:

Recent war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next 20 to 30 years, vulnerable regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change that could demand an American humanitarian relief or military response.

One military exercise "explored the potential impact of a destructive flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into neighboring India, touching off religious conflict, the spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to infrastructure."

The UK government's chief scientist, Professor John Beddington, laid out a similar scenario in a March speech to the government's Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster. He warned that by 2030, "A ‘perfect storm' of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected regions," as the UK's Guardian put it.  The NYT continues:

If the United States does not lead the world in reducing fossil-fuel consumption and thus emissions of global warming gases, proponents of this view say, a series of global environmental, social, political and possibly military crises loom that the nation will urgently have to address.

This argument could prove a fulcrum for debate in the Senate next month when it takes up climate and energy legislation passed in June by the House.

Lawmakers leading the debate before Congress are only now beginning to make the national security argument for approving the legislation.

Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and a leading advocate for the climate legislation, said he hoped to sway Senate skeptics by pressing that issue to pass a meaningful bill.

Mr. Kerry said he did not know whether he would succeed but had spoken with 30 undecided senators on the matter.

I do think this is an important argument to make to Senators, many of whom see themselves as historical figures playing on the world stage.  Indeed, this is part of the even bigger message that Senators who vote to block the national action -- and hence vote to kill any chance of a global deal -- will be remembered for condemning the next 50 generations to unimaginable misery and strife.

But as serious as this argument is, it's equally important not to leave people with the impression that one is arguing global warming is mainly going to impact other countries, and not us.  The United States will be directly devastated by climate change if we don't rapidly reverse emissions trends (see "Intro to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water" and Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year - and that isn't the worst case, it's business as usual!).

"We will pay for this one way or another," Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, a retired Marine and the former head of the Central Command, wrote recently in a report he prepared as a member of a military advisory board on energy and climate at CNA, a private group that does research for the Navy. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind.

"Or we will pay the price later in military terms," he warned. "And that will involve human lives."

For more discussion of the kind of wars we might be seeing, albeit for the year 2046, here is a three-part radio series on Climate Wars.

The time to act is yesterday.

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Former Sen. John WarnerMore senators and citizens might support a climate bill if it emphasized the national security challenges presented by climate change, former Virginia Sen. John Warner (R) argued on Tuesday.

At a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Warner joined former high-ranking military personnel and military analysts to stress that climate change poses national security threats, including the possibility of increased conflicts over scarce resources. The witnesses echoed previous reports from U.S. intelligence officials that have warned climate change could make the world a more dangerous place.

Warner, a veteran who served as secretary of the Navy from 1972 to 1974, cosponsored the Climate Security Act last year with Sen. Joe Lieberman; the bill failed to pass the Senate.

At Tuesday's hearing, Warner said it was crucial to work with other nations on climate policy. "If the American public perceives that we're going alone, and other nations aren't bearing part of the burden or costs, the American public could pull the plug on this legislation," he said.

But Warner stressed that Congress can't delay. "This is the time Congress has to forcibly lead," he said. "We can't follow the public. We've got to lead the public."

Retired Navy Vice Admiral Lee F. Gunn, president of the American Security Project, also urged swift action. "It's not simply about saving polar bears and preserving the beauty of glaciers," said Gunn. "It's about national security."

Gunn emphasized that even if there is some uncertainty about the impacts of climate change, there is a need to act. "Threats and risks never present themselves with 100 percent certainty," he said. "By the time they present themselves with that kind of certainty, something bad will have already happened on the battlefield."

Gunn and two other hearing witnesses -- retired Navy Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn of the Center for Naval Analyses Advisory Board and Sharon Burke, vice president of the Center for a New American Security -- said climate change could put a strain on the U.S. armed forces, pushing them into more military interventions and humanitarian missions.

Climate change could act as a "threat multiplier" in already unstable countries, they said. Depletion of resources like water could lead to more conflict and more failed states, and failed states could become havens for extremists, potentially increasing the risk of terrorism (see: Somalia).

Burke warned that reliance on foreign energy supplies is also a threat to national security. Even if dependence on foreign oil decreases, the U.S. could become reliant on lithium for lithium-ion batteries in electric cars if proper planning isn't done, she cautioned. And since the Department of Defense is among the largest consumers of energy in the country, the issue should be of particular importance.

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters after the hearing that he is "confident" there will be a national security component to the climate bill that is taking shape in the Senate, though he couldn't yet say what the component would look like. He said he is working closely with Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) to author an overall climate package, and will be a cosponsor of the legislation.

Kerry said he believed he could get bipartisan support for including national security more explicitly in the climate bill. Yet only two of his Republican colleagues -- Dick Lugar (Ind.) and Bob Corker (Tenn.) -- were present at the hearing. Both Lugar and Corker have expressed a desire to address climate change, but have raised concerns about Democratic proposals and are considered swing votes on a climate bill this year.

During the hearing, Kerry spoke forcibly about national security threats posed by climate change. "Just as 9/11 taught us the painful lesson that oceans could not protect us from terror, today we are deluding ourselves if we believe that climate change will stop at our borders," he said.

"The future has a way of humbling those who try to predict it too precisely," he continued. "But we do know, from scientists and security experts, that the threat is very real. If we fail to connect the dots -- if we fail to take action -- the simple, indisputable reality is that we will find ourselves living not only in a ravaged environment, but also in a more dangerous world."

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Photo illustration by Tom Twigg / Grist

Old soldiers, as they say, never die -- and at 97 the legendary Vietnamese Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap seems intent on proving the point.

But he does not seem to be that interested in fading away, either. For the man who drove out first France and then the United States is enthusiastically embracing a new battle -- as an eco-warrior.

For a European child of the 1960s like me -- for whom the Vietnam War was a youthful defining event -- this is truly riveting news. It is like someone of my father's generation discovering Germany's Field Marshal Rommel campaigning to save the whale in the 1970s, or people of my son's age coming across, say, Saddam Hussein running an animal sanctuary in forty years time.

Giap was just as feared in his day -- and many readers could be forgiven for assuming him to have passed away years ago.

Be that as it may, the general's emergence provides a dramatic personalization of one of the more surprising trends of the last few years -- the greening of the military. Britain and the United States are in the vanguard of what we may one day come to call the "military-ecological complex."

But before we get to that, spare a thought for the Chinese firm, Chinalco, that now finds itself in the sights of the man who routed the French Army in the decisive battle of Dien Bien Phu (55 years ago last week) and then led North Vietnamese forces against far superior American military between 1965 and 1974. The national Vietnamese communist government, which Giap did so much to make possible, calls Chinalco's bauxite mining in the country's beautiful Central Highlands "a major policy of the party and of the state."

But the general will have none of it. He cites a report that concluded that the mining would cause "devastating, long-term ecological damage" and says: "We should not exploit the bauxite. The exploitation will cause serious consequences on the environment, society and national defense."

It is, of course, defense considerations that have awakened military leaders in the West to the importance of green issues. Gen. Giap may be concerned about inviting investment from Vietnam's old enemy, China. But top brass in Britain, the United States and many other countries are most worried about the potential for future conflict caused by resource scarcity, environmental refugees and -- above all -- global warming.

"Just a few years ago," former British defense official Derek Twigg told a conference last September, "it would have been fanciful, to say the least, for a defense minister to be speaking about climate change, let alone stating categorically that it will have a crucial effect on the defense operations of Britain and its allies.

"Climate change will serve to amplify instability. Because of it, our troops will be asked to complete more challenging tasks, in more places, more often." He added: "It is a long term danger that must be tackled head on."

U.S. military leaders were even sooner to see the threat. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, or we will pay the price in military terms later on," said General Anthony Zinni, a former commander of American forces in the Middle East, at the launch two years ago of a report that concluded that global warming was a "threat multiplier", creating breeding grounds for terrorism.

Another of the report's authors, Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, former commander-in-chief of U.S. Naval Forces in Europe, added that the "rising ocean water levels, droughts, violent weather and ruined national economies" that would result from global warming "can provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror."

Even more interestingly, the two countries' armed forces are setting out to tackle their own gas-guzzling consumption of fossil fuels. Britain's Ministry of Defence, responsible for 70 percent of all the Her Majesty's Government's carbon dioxide emissions, has so far cut them by ten percent this decade and has certified its planes to fly entirely on biofuels, probably made from algae, when they are available.

The Pentagon, which gave humanity the 68-ton, less-than-one-mile-to-the-gallon M1 Abrams tank -- now aims to get a quarter of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. It is saving fuel by removing floor mats and redundant tools from its planes, and has saved 100,000 gallons of oil a day by insulating tents in Iraq and Afghanistan with a layer of hard foam.

General Giap, notoriously profligate with his men's lives, might not have appreciated the Pentagon's combat-zone energy-efficiency efforts, but the U.S. military reckons these steps prevent casualties, as every one per cent of fuel excuses 6,444 soldiers from traveling in fuel convoys, favored targets of insurgent forces.

And, the newly green military chiefs add, their multi-billion-dollar acquisition budgets may boost the development of green technologies, just as military spending once led to the development of jet engines, microchips, the Internet and the global positioning system.

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Homeland Security officials can continue to waive environmental laws to speed construction of a fence on the U.S.-Mexico border, after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by Defenders of Wildlife and the Sierra Club. The groups had argued that the eco-law-waiving power given to Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff in 2005 was unconstitutional. The fence section named specifically in the lawsuit has already been built; it runs through Arizona's San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area, which is home to more than 250 species of migratory birds.

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