As Copenhagen prepares for December, a strange combination of Christmas lights, clean energy expos, evergreen wreaths, and security barriers have begun to crop up around the city. It's an exciting time to be in Copenhagen reflecting on a year of intense pressure, activity, and engagement around the world.

Over the past several months (and years), a growing movement has coalesced around the conference here next month and it's hard to believe it's finally almost here. In June, the sleepy German town of Bonn saw hundreds of activists descend in the rain upon the normally quiet Subsidiary Bodies negotiations at the UNFCCC's home. Thousands around the world participated in the September 21 Global Wakeup Call. Then in Bangkok in October thousands marched outside the UNESCAP building calling for climate action. October 24th saw the most widespread day of environmental action in the planet's history, spearheaded by 350.org, with over 5,000 events in 181 countries around the world.

And now, rumors of tens of thousands are looming on Copenhagen, including, by my count so far, at least 15 Heads of State who have committed to attending the talks (although Yvo de Boer said in Barcelona that he expects at least 40). [UPDATE: The AP is reporting a Danish official has suggested 65 Heads of State are planning on attending as of Sunday the 22nd of November.]

The last time I wrote, it was a dark and gloomy day in Copenhagen. But today was beautiful -- the sun was out, the weather warm, and the bustle on the street was electric.

The last time I wrote, I was convincing myself, and others, that all was not lost for December. Now, on this bright and sunny day, I'm as convinced as ever that world leaders can achieve an ambitious outcome in Copenhagen if they try.

Even in the past week, we've seen movement around the world. The Alliance of Small Island states continue to raise its collective voice of conscience against a weak outcome in Copenhagen. We've heard that the Chinese would be willing to bring a number to the table in Copenhagen. We've seen South Korea confirm a voluntary emissions reduction target of 30 percent below business as usual by 2020. The European Union has said that it would like a binding agreement in Copenhagen. France and Brazil came out with a "climate bible" -- an agreement between two nations to work together on climate change. This follows Brazil's previous announcement of voluntary emissions cuts of 36-39% by 2020 below business as usual in a "political gesture" some weeks ago.

Even the Danish government, which had caused so many hearts to sink with its proposal of a "politically binding" outcome in Copenhagen, seemed to change its tune ... if only just a bit. The Danish Minister for Climate and Energy, Connie Hedegaard (who will chair the negotiations in December), spoke in a press briefing at the close of the preparatory meeting last week, assuring the world that her aim is a legally binding outcome from the negotiations.

Finally, eyes continue to focus on the U.S. In the joint announcement between the U.S. and China, President Obama indicated his team could bring further commitments to the table in Copenhagen. As Copenhagen creeps towards December, the question remains, will Obama come to Copenhagen? And if so, will he come bearing gifts ... or a lump of coal?

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For over a year now, South Korea has been undertaking an extensive dialogue to establish a target to cut their global warming pollution (see my discussion here and this ClimateWire story --sub req.-- from last year). And now the South Korean government has outlined the possible targets that they will commit to later this year (as reported by Reuters.)

The South Korean government has just announced that later this year they’ll commit to one of three absolute target levels for their emissions in 2020:

South Korea’s emissions experienced significant growth during the 90’s -- doubling between 1990 and 2005 -- as they developed their economy, industrialized, and pulled large numbers of their population out of poverty (remember they were one of the “Asian Tigers”). Their emissions growth has slowed during this decade, but it has still increased since 2000.

So the three proposed targets would still amount to a significant increase from where they were in 1990, but each target would represent a serious cut from where they would be if the government took no action (see figure*) -- representing cuts of 20-28% below their projected levels without action. Given the past and projected trajectory of emissions, this is a significant reversal.

And they somewhat reflect South Korea’s share of responsibility to address global warming.

In the discussions about how much action each country should undertake there are different measures of “equity” ( as outlined in this report ) that form the basis of much of the negotiation (often indirectly influencing country’s positions). The target options proposed by South Korea are within the range of efforts that South Korea would be expected to undertake in these measures of equity (see figure**) -- although just outside the effort they would be expected under some important measures of equity.

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The captain and first mate of an oil tanker that caused South Korea's largest oil spill last year have been convicted of criminal negligence for failing to avoid a collision with a barge. Members of the barge crew were also jailed for their role in the collision, which dumped some 2.7 million gallons of crude oil into the Yellow Sea.

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South Korea has announced that it will outlaw single-hulled oil tankers in its waters by January 2011, four years earlier than its original goal, due to the country's largest oil spill in December. The December spill dumped about 2.7 million gallons of oil some five miles off the country's coast when a barge struck a massive single-hulled tanker, puncturing it in three places. As of this month, South Korea estimated that some 43 percent of its imported crude oil is brought via single-hulled tanker.

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The city of San Francisco has sued the owners of the container ship that hit the iconic Bay Bridge last month and blackened the bay with 58,000 gallons of oil. The "wholly avoidable" accident caused "more injury to the San Francisco Bay Area than we can yet begin to fathom," says the suit, which seeks damages for costs ranging from overtime pay of employees to lost tourism revenue to the deaths of at least 2,200 birds. Crab fisherfolk are also negotiating a payout from the ship's owners, as the spill caused a two-week shutdown of commercial crab season. In other oil-spill updates, cleanup is ongoing over the spill that resulted from the collision of a tanker and a barge in the Yellow Sea off of South Korea on Friday. As of yesterday, less than 10 percent of the oil had been recovered, and some 6,325 acres of seafood farms had been destroyed or severely damaged.

sources:

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A barge collided with a massive oil tanker this morning about five miles off the coast of South Korea, damaging the tanker's single hull in three places and resulting in an oil spill estimated at about 2.7 million gallons. The over four-mile-long oil slick is slowly making its way toward what were once probably some very nice beaches and a national maritime park. An official at the country's fisheries ministry said, "This is the country's worst oil spill. We worry about an ecological disaster." South Korea's previous largest offshore spill occurred in July 1995 when a tanker struck a rock. However, officials hope the more wintry conditions this time around will help slow the spread of the spilled oil.

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South Korea ships oil to North Korea in nuke-shutdown deal

South Korea will ship oil to North Korea next week as part of a six-nation agreement reached in February that trades energy aid for a shutdown of the North's main nuclear facility. Funny story, though: North Korea hasn't shut down the reactor. But it totally will! It promises! In talks on Tuesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il said that "all the parties should implement the initial actions" of the agreement. But then he asked for 5,500 to 11,000 tons of the promised 55,000 tons of oil in advance. "Good faith is going to be met in turn by good faith," said Sean McCormack of the U.S. State Department. Japan, on the other hand? Not feeling the faith. "While North Korea demands to be given aid beforehand, the proper way is to carry [the pledges] out simultaneously," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki. "We cannot allow one to come before the other unless it is clear that the activities at the Yongbyon facility have been suspended and sealed for certain." What, they don't trust Kim?

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South Korean Supreme Court rules in favor of eco-damaging seawall

In a bitter defeat for a worldwide coalition of environmentalists, the South Korean Supreme Court has ruled that construction can continue on what will become, if finished as planned, the world's longest seawall. Begun in 1991 and about 90 percent complete, the 20-mile-long wall will convert over 99,000 acres of wetlands into filled land and a reservoir. Conservationists point out that the wall will affect migratory birds from Mongolia to New Zealand by disrupting a crucial feeding area. The filled land was initially going to be used for rice paddies, but as South Korea is currently producing a rice surplus, plans have been floated for a tourism site with the world's largest ... wait for it ... golf course. The government says it will encourage eco-friendly development, use the land for raising livestock, and establish marshes and a bird sanctuary. Don't you feel better?

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The first meeting of the Asia-Pacific climate partnership will kick off this Wednesday in Australia. The six participating nations -- Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. -- will emphasize the transfer of clean technologies to developing countries, instead of Kyoto-style emissions caps. But eco-advocates -- who are being excluded from the confab -- say the meet's a smokescreen for some of the globe's biggest polluters. "It's about how big business and bureaucrats can best ensure that the climate-change agenda and the politics of confronting ... global warming doesn't derail their profit taking," says Greenpeacer Danny Kennedy. Australian Environment Minister Ian Campbell counters that public-private collaboration is crucial to curbing climate change. But now that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has opted to remain in Washington (to monitor developments in the Middle East) instead of jetting to Sydney, some think the meeting may already be a bust.

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An automobile company lobbying for stricter emissions standards? It might sound like an unlikely tale, but not when the bottom line is at stake. General Motors is pressuring the South Korean government to impose tougher standards for diesel emissions than it is currently considering. Here's why: The automaker is trying to increase the competitiveness of its Korean affiliate, GM Daewoo. GM Daewoo won't have any diesel cars ready by 2005, when Seoul plans to impose moderate emissions standards, but by 2006, it will be ready to sell cars that meet far stricter standards. If the company can convince the government to impose the stricter standards earlier, it will prevent its competitors -- notably Hyundai -- from gaining a significant lead in the market before GM Daewoo can even offer a competing product. So far, though, Seoul has stuck to its original timetable, a move GM Daewoo says illegally favors Hyundai. For its part, Hyundai says changing the timetable would favor GM Daewoo. Nonsense, says GM Daewoo: It would simply favor cleaner air for everyone.

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For the third year in a row, massive dust storms from China have blown into South Korea, closing schools, canceling flights, and creating a run on facemasks and respiratory medication. The storms are the result of severe desertification in China, where the Gobi Desert grew by 20,000 square miles from 1994 to 1999; the desertification stems from overfarming, overgrazing, and deforestation, among other causes. In Seoul, 750 miles away, dust levels usually measure 70 micrograms per cubic meter of air; during last week's dust storm, the reading was 2,070 micrograms, over twice the level deemed hazardous. And folks in South Korea aren't inhaling mere dirt or sand: Dust from the expanding desert in China binds with airborne pollutants from the rapidly industrializing country, increasing the health hazards. Chinese dust has also traveled on the jet stream to San Francisco and Portland, Ore., heightening the beauty of sunsets but having little impact on health so far.

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