This post is important in many ways, one of which is to counter what I am seeing more and more, from the center through the left, that somehow the rise in prices is some vague conspiracy by the oil companies and countries.

Certainly, they will do their part to make everybody's lives as miserable as possible, but so far, even on the left, there seems to be little admission that the basic problem is an ecological one -- no resource in any ecosystem is infinite, including oil and coal.

In fact, it may be that in coming decades the real sin of the oil companies and countries will seen to be, not be that they fleeced the world with high prices, but that they lied about how much oil (and coal) was available.

This is also the first time I've seen Hansen talk about green jobs; and I don't know that I've seen him advocate zero emissions, although maybe I wasn't paying attention.  Zero emissions is an important concept because it means that people need to focus on how a society would work with no fossil fuels, and no deforestation.  Great post!

  I would submit (and Hansen indeed mentioned some of the pressures on OPEC) that some of the pressure to overstate reserves is not due to the desire to foil the message of impending scarcity, but other market factors, such as allowed production quotas, and the effect of reserve estimates on the stock price.

   But the results are the same regardless of motivation. Most of the public, and indeed most policy makers are unaware of the severity of resource depletion we face. I think we are entering a crucial time period, where energy scarcity is going to start to bite hard. Angry people could respond by demanding that any possible FF source be used damn the consequences -or we could get down to the business of solving the problem via conservation and renewables. The next several years should be important for setting our future trajectory.

in the 1980s by intentionally bringing down oil prices after the shocks of the 1970s, because they saw what happened -- car efficiency went up, oil use went down, and they were scared that it might become a trend (remember Jimmy Carter's White House solar panels?).  So, even though they would have profited short-term by keeping prices high (include OPEC here), the collapse of oil prices (to about $20/barrel, remember when?) effectively kept real efforts at bay -- and led to the rise of the SUV.

Now there's nothing they can do, so they'll just suck up as much of the world's capital as possible, and the more intelligent (say, some of the gulf states), will try to build non-petroleum-based societies with the proceeds.  But I think they are pretty aware of what they're doing.

It's well worth taking a look at the research paper -- everyone should get something out of it. The science seems impeccable. And the fact that we can still avert disaster if we mobilize ought to arouse our strongest passions.

It's also good to see Dr. Hansen outline the political terrain so cogently. I suspect he keeps his lips closed in public about the tactics of the White House. But this is about the oil and coal industry maintaining their share prices and profits (and to be fair, that is what corporate charters are all about). But we know what extraordinary measures they have taken to invent the denial industry. No doubt they are working hard behind the scenes on new tactics to keep the carbon addiction going.

I also appreciate that Dr. Hansen has followed in the footsteps of the peak oilers in questioning the reserve figures of the EIA and co. Peak oil indeed provides the extra motivation to do all we can to build the carbon-free future.

I do think phasing out (unsequestered) coal by 2030 is an appropriate goal for the climate movement. But, as a quibble, I'm disappointed to see Dr. Hansen use a biofuel wedge. That implies he thinks we have no option but to keep the car-paradigm going, (even believing for a moment that biofuels could actually reduce carbon emmissions). But if can promote mass transit over private automobiles we can create a new wedge that reduces our material footprint as well as our carbon footprint, in addition reducing the chance of a catastrophic breakdown of the economy.

But that not ought to make loose sight of the fact that Coal is the (Most Immediate) Enemy of the Human Race!

This is more than a bit distasteful, as it discriminates against the lower middle class. Nevertheless, it should be a great stadium and as long as the owner is footing the bill without public subsidies for the stadium itself, we may have little grounds for complaint.

My understanding is, this stadium required a vicious public subsidy, namely the expropriation and destruction of a large public park the local (lower class) neighborhood had always cherished as its only outdoor space.

Oh well, I guess they can get exercise and fresh air in the alleys, and their children can play in the sewers. Just as long as Yankee fans are happy.

...but the amounts that come out and are refined cannot be much overstated.  

So sooner or later...and by sonner, I mean like right now, the drop in reserves becomes apparent.  They can say a reserve still has X amount, but if only Y amount comes out the pipelines, and is dropping, then it's pretty apparent that X amount isn't really there.

And then prices rise anyway, 'cause only Y amount is produced and fallin'.  The higher prices cause concern, and hopefully conservation increases.