<![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for One big corpration dominates the soon-to-be-prized potash market]]> Grist Comment Feed en Comment #1 by ndunne http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Thu, 15 May 2008 20:19:17 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/1 sustainable ag

I agree, Tom.

But there are sustainability issues when it comes to organic farming too (whether small-scale or industrial). Many of the fertilizers/amendments approved for use on the organic farm (though unprocessed) are mined, non-renewable resources, including limestone, elemental sulfur, rock phosphate, greensand, granite meal, langbeinite, and gypsum.

Then you have a host of organic byproducts -- such as bone meal, blood meal, fish meal -- from industries with questionable sustainability credentials (i.e. moo cowing and fishing).

I know the (true) organic farmer's credo is zero-input agriculture -- creating a closed-loop, self-sustaining agro-ecosystem. But how many farmers are actually doing this successfully?

NJD

]]> sustainable ag

I agree, Tom.

But there are sustainability issues when it comes to organic farming too (whether small-scale or industrial). Many of the fertilizers/amendments approved for use on the organic farm (though unprocessed) are mined, non-renewable resources, including limestone, elemental sulfur, rock phosphate, greensand, granite meal, langbeinite, and gypsum.

Then you have a host of organic byproducts -- such as bone meal, blood meal, fish meal -- from industries with questionable sustainability credentials (i.e. moo cowing and fishing).

I know the (true) organic farmer's credo is zero-input agriculture -- creating a closed-loop, self-sustaining agro-ecosystem. But how many farmers are actually doing this successfully?

NJD

]]> Comment #2 by amazingdrx http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Fri, 16 May 2008 00:18:22 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/2 Market forces

Is it real acarcity that is driving this or merely human psychology?  The fear of scarcity?  

Fear is becoming the main force in the market, for everything.  Even greed gives way to fear.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Market forces

Is it real acarcity that is driving this or merely human psychology?  The fear of scarcity?  

Fear is becoming the main force in the market, for everything.  Even greed gives way to fear.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Comment #3 by Jonas http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Fri, 16 May 2008 03:32:32 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/3 No scarcity

Saskatchewan alone can supply enough potash for several hundred years.

Potash reserves are large enough to feed the 9 billion people at which level we max out in 2075, and to grow biomass to replace all fossil fuels for the centuries to come.

There's really no potash scarcity whatsoever.

There is however a serious lack of investment in new production capacity. 85% of the world's capacity is more than 25 years old.

According to the USGS the oligopoly of producers has succeeded in driving prices higher by producing less (1.1 million tonnes less) - they can fool around like OPEC.

However, the potash boom is creating new entrants, from exotic places. Two new large projects (1.2 million tons) are coming online in the Republic of Congo and Thailand.

In any case, there's no scarcity, the reserves are plentiful.

There's a lack of capacity. That's all.

]]> No scarcity

Saskatchewan alone can supply enough potash for several hundred years.

Potash reserves are large enough to feed the 9 billion people at which level we max out in 2075, and to grow biomass to replace all fossil fuels for the centuries to come.

There's really no potash scarcity whatsoever.

There is however a serious lack of investment in new production capacity. 85% of the world's capacity is more than 25 years old.

According to the USGS the oligopoly of producers has succeeded in driving prices higher by producing less (1.1 million tonnes less) - they can fool around like OPEC.

However, the potash boom is creating new entrants, from exotic places. Two new large projects (1.2 million tons) are coming online in the Republic of Congo and Thailand.

In any case, there's no scarcity, the reserves are plentiful.

There's a lack of capacity. That's all.

]]> Comment #4 by amazingdrx http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Fri, 16 May 2008 14:31:21 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/4 Oil is similar

It is more the fear of scarcity driving markets.  "Hedging" as the name applied to hedge funds implies.

If oil consumption in the US dropped to one tenth of present lvels over the next decade, would peak oil still be a big deal?  Plugin hybrid drivetrains could do that.

And biogas/natural gas powered trucks and electric trains and mass transit.

The GHG peak must be reached very soon and concentrations ramped down the other side of the mountain.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Oil is similar

It is more the fear of scarcity driving markets.  "Hedging" as the name applied to hedge funds implies.

If oil consumption in the US dropped to one tenth of present lvels over the next decade, would peak oil still be a big deal?  Plugin hybrid drivetrains could do that.

And biogas/natural gas powered trucks and electric trains and mass transit.

The GHG peak must be reached very soon and concentrations ramped down the other side of the mountain.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Comment #5 by Bart Anderson http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Fri, 16 May 2008 17:51:57 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/5 Fertilizers - hot topic

Thanks for keeping up with the fertilizer story, Tom. I think it's a sleeper -- ignored and critically important.

I think the factors behind the prices rises are rising demand (e.g. from biofuel crops) and the rising cost of energy and natural gas. Supplies and production capacity may also be factors.

I'm not sure about potash. Jonas says there's no scarcity, and that may be true. I wonder, though, if there may be an issue with the energy required to mine, process and ship it.  And what is the quality of the reserves? Easy or difficult to access?

About nitrogen, I know there is a close correlation with energy prices since the process is very energy-intensive and relies on natural gas as a feedstock.

Phosphorus is the one I'm really concerned about. Supplies are limited and there is no substitute. I've seen a number of estimates about reserves, but the question deserves a lot more attention.  (Recent post / Readings / Peak Phosphorus).

Bart
Energy Bulletin

]]> Fertilizers - hot topic

Thanks for keeping up with the fertilizer story, Tom. I think it's a sleeper -- ignored and critically important.

I think the factors behind the prices rises are rising demand (e.g. from biofuel crops) and the rising cost of energy and natural gas. Supplies and production capacity may also be factors.

I'm not sure about potash. Jonas says there's no scarcity, and that may be true. I wonder, though, if there may be an issue with the energy required to mine, process and ship it.  And what is the quality of the reserves? Easy or difficult to access?

About nitrogen, I know there is a close correlation with energy prices since the process is very energy-intensive and relies on natural gas as a feedstock.

Phosphorus is the one I'm really concerned about. Supplies are limited and there is no substitute. I've seen a number of estimates about reserves, but the question deserves a lot more attention.  (Recent post / Readings / Peak Phosphorus).

Bart
Energy Bulletin

]]> Comment #6 by amazingdrx http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Sat, 17 May 2008 01:24:13 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/6 Once again

It is peak GHG that is more important here, not peak fertilizer or peak oil.  The problem is that short term bottomline considerations line up with peak fertilizer and peak oil, and not peak GHG.

A big new revelation about nitrous oxide (296 x the GHG effect of CO2) emission due to ammonmia fertilizer makes this very clear.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/5/17/ ...

How much will fertilizer need to cost before organic fertilizer competes on price?  I think it is here already but ag policy ignores this fact.

Wind is cheaper than coal as a grid power source, finally coal plants are being canceled in favor of wind.  When will organic fertilizer from biodigestion replace ammonia fertilizer?

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Once again

It is peak GHG that is more important here, not peak fertilizer or peak oil.  The problem is that short term bottomline considerations line up with peak fertilizer and peak oil, and not peak GHG.

A big new revelation about nitrous oxide (296 x the GHG effect of CO2) emission due to ammonmia fertilizer makes this very clear.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/5/17/ ...

How much will fertilizer need to cost before organic fertilizer competes on price?  I think it is here already but ag policy ignores this fact.

Wind is cheaper than coal as a grid power source, finally coal plants are being canceled in favor of wind.  When will organic fertilizer from biodigestion replace ammonia fertilizer?

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Comment #7 by Bart Anderson http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/ Sat, 17 May 2008 04:01:04 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-saudi-arabia-of-fertilizer/7 Everything is hitched to everything else

>> It is peak GHG that is more important here, not peak fertilizer or peak oil.

Problem is, amazingdrx, several interconnected trends are going on at once. To say that peak GHG is more important is to say that the Law of Gravity is more important than the Laws of Motion.

It's critical to see how the different trends affect one another.

For example, the rising price of oil pushes people into increased use of coal.

Or, food riots and competition for oil may prompt resource conflicts which would distract from efforts to control GHG.

Bart
Energy Bulletin

]]> Everything is hitched to everything else

>> It is peak GHG that is more important here, not peak fertilizer or peak oil.

Problem is, amazingdrx, several interconnected trends are going on at once. To say that peak GHG is more important is to say that the Law of Gravity is more important than the Laws of Motion.

It's critical to see how the different trends affect one another.

For example, the rising price of oil pushes people into increased use of coal.

Or, food riots and competition for oil may prompt resource conflicts which would distract from efforts to control GHG.

Bart
Energy Bulletin

]]>