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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for How much should we aim to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions?]]></title>
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	<description>Grist Comment Feed</description>
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            <title>Comment #1 by GRLCowan</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:30:09 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/1</guid>
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				<p><strong>Zero net emissions<p>But is it practical? Can it be done? Obviously that's unknowable to some degree. Me, I believe it's possible.<p>
Yes, yes, no, I also believe so.<p>
But by zero emissions do you mean zero net, or actually emitting no carbon? It's easy enough to snatch back more than is put -- will someone repost the link or links I've posted on this before -- but not putting any is very hard and, I think, not as good as negative net emissions.<p>
--- G. R. L. Cowan, former hydrogen fan<br>
<a href="http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html" rel="nofollow">How shall motoring gain nuclear cachet?</a></br></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Zero net emissions<p>But is it practical? Can it be done? Obviously that's unknowable to some degree. Me, I believe it's possible.<p>
Yes, yes, no, I also believe so.<p>
But by zero emissions do you mean zero net, or actually emitting no carbon? It's easy enough to snatch back more than is put -- will someone repost the link or links I've posted on this before -- but not putting any is very hard and, I think, not as good as negative net emissions.<p>
--- G. R. L. Cowan, former hydrogen fan<br>
<a href="http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html" rel="nofollow">How shall motoring gain nuclear cachet?</a></br></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #2 by sunflower</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:39:41 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/2</guid>
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				<p><strong>Money is never more important than children</strong></p><p></p>
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				<p><strong>Money is never more important than children</strong></p><p></p>
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            <title>Comment #3 by Jon Rynn</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:40:00 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/3</guid>
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				<p><strong>what about  &quot;no fossil fuels&quot;?</strong></p><p>Wouldn't it be a little clearer if we said, </p><p>
"Children born today should live to see a U.S. that uses no fossil fuels."</p><p>
That makes it very clear what we have to do, whereas "no emissions" is a little vague. &nbsp;But I don't want to get sectarian about this, just a suggestion. &nbsp;And while I'm at it, how about no fuels, not just no fossil fuels?</p>
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				<p><strong>what about  &quot;no fossil fuels&quot;?</strong></p><p>Wouldn't it be a little clearer if we said, </p><p>
"Children born today should live to see a U.S. that uses no fossil fuels."</p><p>
That makes it very clear what we have to do, whereas "no emissions" is a little vague. &nbsp;But I don't want to get sectarian about this, just a suggestion. &nbsp;And while I'm at it, how about no fuels, not just no fossil fuels?</p>
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            <title>Comment #4 by sunflower</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 02:47:27 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/4</guid>
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				<p><strong>No coal exports, no coal power, no liquid coal</strong></p><p>Just say no to coal.</p>
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				<p><strong>No coal exports, no coal power, no liquid coal</strong></p><p>Just say no to coal.</p>
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            <title>Comment #5 by JMG</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 04:53:23 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/5</guid>
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				<p><strong>Too slow, too non-specific</strong></p><p>I want to speak well of this proposal but problems emerge immediately:</p><p>


It's too slow by far -- children born in the US today are, for analysis purposes, expected to live about 80 years. &nbsp;That's about 40 years too long for the bulk of the reductions we need.</p><p>
The model of climate change politics you paint -- as if it was like moving a heavy dresser or couch (once you finally get it moving, it's got a lot of momentum) -- is attractive because it's hopeful. &nbsp;The problem is that it ignores the basic physics and the law of diminishing returns.</p><p>


The sad fact is that it's perfectly possible to have the brutal battles early to change the direction of the supertanker, and THEN have even more brutal battles later as the sheer size of the population makes further reductions exponentially harder to attain.</p><p>
3) You appear to equate the use of numbers (other than zero) with wonkery -- but significant research on human performance says that SMART goals (specific, measurable, appropriate, realistic, and timed) simply work better than end-point-only goals. &nbsp;(Although you've actually used a disguised endpoint an time-limit by linking the end state to the lifetime of a child born today.)</p><p>
Basically, your reframe appears to be "Eat an elephant during your lifetime," &nbsp;You actually get more elephants eaten by saying "Eat 1 lb of elephant a day" (or whatever the appropriate amount is).</p><p>
Naturally, I have an alternative to propose. &nbsp;I suggest that Grist adopt it and work to have it adopted as the overarching goal you're seeking. It is this:<br>


<p>Save the world:  Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 5% annually.</p></br></p>
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				<p><strong>Too slow, too non-specific</strong></p><p>I want to speak well of this proposal but problems emerge immediately:</p><p>


It's too slow by far -- children born in the US today are, for analysis purposes, expected to live about 80 years. &nbsp;That's about 40 years too long for the bulk of the reductions we need.</p><p>
The model of climate change politics you paint -- as if it was like moving a heavy dresser or couch (once you finally get it moving, it's got a lot of momentum) -- is attractive because it's hopeful. &nbsp;The problem is that it ignores the basic physics and the law of diminishing returns.</p><p>


The sad fact is that it's perfectly possible to have the brutal battles early to change the direction of the supertanker, and THEN have even more brutal battles later as the sheer size of the population makes further reductions exponentially harder to attain.</p><p>
3) You appear to equate the use of numbers (other than zero) with wonkery -- but significant research on human performance says that SMART goals (specific, measurable, appropriate, realistic, and timed) simply work better than end-point-only goals. &nbsp;(Although you've actually used a disguised endpoint an time-limit by linking the end state to the lifetime of a child born today.)</p><p>
Basically, your reframe appears to be "Eat an elephant during your lifetime," &nbsp;You actually get more elephants eaten by saying "Eat 1 lb of elephant a day" (or whatever the appropriate amount is).</p><p>
Naturally, I have an alternative to propose. &nbsp;I suggest that Grist adopt it and work to have it adopted as the overarching goal you're seeking. It is this:<br>


<p>Save the world:  Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 5% annually.</p></br></p>
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            <title>Comment #6 by Adam Stein</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 09:37:13 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/6</guid>
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				<p><strong>Cost curve for carbon<p>It feels churlish to argue with such a hopeful sentiment, but it really isn't very likely that the first 20% will be harder than the last 20%. I know you're making a contrast between political difficulty and economic difficulty, but the cost curve on carbon slopes in the direction that you'd expect it to slope, and I don't see the political battles melting away as we hit the steeper portion of the curve. <p>
Also, there very likely could be a countervailing political effect -- if we really get to an 80% reduction, what urgency will be driving the last 20%? Even someone who cares about this issue a lot -- say, me -- may find other things to care about when we get to an 80% reduction.<p>
Finally, isn't the 80% figure driven more by scientific logic than economic logic? I've never really dug into the source of the number, but I always just sort of assumed that it's roughly where we need to be in order to stabilize at ~450 ppm CO2.

<p><a href="http://www.terrapass.com/blog" rel="nofollow">www.terrapass.com/blog</a></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Cost curve for carbon<p>It feels churlish to argue with such a hopeful sentiment, but it really isn't very likely that the first 20% will be harder than the last 20%. I know you're making a contrast between political difficulty and economic difficulty, but the cost curve on carbon slopes in the direction that you'd expect it to slope, and I don't see the political battles melting away as we hit the steeper portion of the curve. <p>
Also, there very likely could be a countervailing political effect -- if we really get to an 80% reduction, what urgency will be driving the last 20%? Even someone who cares about this issue a lot -- say, me -- may find other things to care about when we get to an 80% reduction.<p>
Finally, isn't the 80% figure driven more by scientific logic than economic logic? I've never really dug into the source of the number, but I always just sort of assumed that it's roughly where we need to be in order to stabilize at ~450 ppm CO2.

<p><a href="http://www.terrapass.com/blog" rel="nofollow">www.terrapass.com/blog</a></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #7 by caniscandida</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2007 17:42:10 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/7</guid>
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				<p><strong>the kid in the photo</strong></p><p>Is he one of yours, DR? &nbsp;It is not impossible, you know, he sort of resembles you around the eyes.</p><p>
But he also sort of resembles a godson of mine, back when he was that age, so he could be lots of cute kids. &nbsp;No matter, you make your point well enough about how the lives and health and well-being of our children can be used as markers of global health.

<p>Chickens are our cousins!
So are other sensitive animals!
Enough is enough!
No more factory farms!</p></p>
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				<p><strong>the kid in the photo</strong></p><p>Is he one of yours, DR? &nbsp;It is not impossible, you know, he sort of resembles you around the eyes.</p><p>
But he also sort of resembles a godson of mine, back when he was that age, so he could be lots of cute kids. &nbsp;No matter, you make your point well enough about how the lives and health and well-being of our children can be used as markers of global health.

<p>Chickens are our cousins!
So are other sensitive animals!
Enough is enough!
No more factory farms!</p></p>
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            <title>Comment #8 by racc</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2007 04:27:54 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/8</guid>
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				<p><strong>Its a Cop Out</strong></p><p>It is a total cop out. Here we are producing all the GHG emissions we want, using up all the fossil fuels living way beyond our means and then declaring our children should be carbon neutral. That's quite rich.</p><p>
Lets do everything we can to reduce OUR emissions, set the groundwork needed to allow our children to be carbon neutral but let them make the decision.</p><p>
Instead of stating it in percentage reductions, which are really confusing because the actual reductions, which is what is really important, are very unclear. It all depends on what year the reduction is from. </p><p>
Instead, a better target would be say a target of one tonne of emissions per person per year by 2020 (or whatever) for everyone in the world. It is certainly a lot fairer, acknowledging that some people cause a lot more emissions than others. People in developing countries would have more room to improve their standard of living.</p><p>
People living in the future could also enjoy some of the benefits of fossil fuel use that we are lucky enough to enjoy today.</p><p>
As well, stating it as an amount that is allowed instead of a reduction, makes it seem more like a right that people gain rather than a reduction, which seems like people are giving up something.</p>
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				<p><strong>Its a Cop Out</strong></p><p>It is a total cop out. Here we are producing all the GHG emissions we want, using up all the fossil fuels living way beyond our means and then declaring our children should be carbon neutral. That's quite rich.</p><p>
Lets do everything we can to reduce OUR emissions, set the groundwork needed to allow our children to be carbon neutral but let them make the decision.</p><p>
Instead of stating it in percentage reductions, which are really confusing because the actual reductions, which is what is really important, are very unclear. It all depends on what year the reduction is from. </p><p>
Instead, a better target would be say a target of one tonne of emissions per person per year by 2020 (or whatever) for everyone in the world. It is certainly a lot fairer, acknowledging that some people cause a lot more emissions than others. People in developing countries would have more room to improve their standard of living.</p><p>
People living in the future could also enjoy some of the benefits of fossil fuel use that we are lucky enough to enjoy today.</p><p>
As well, stating it as an amount that is allowed instead of a reduction, makes it seem more like a right that people gain rather than a reduction, which seems like people are giving up something.</p>
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            <title>Comment #9 by Delay And Deny</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2007 11:14:09 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/9</guid>
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				<p><strong>MMMAAHHHMMMM! More CO2 Please!<p><br>
The adaptability of the human race is such that we will evolve to live in the new CO2 rich, very hot world of the late 21st century.<p>
The next generation may become dependent on the high CO2 released by naturogenic processes into the atmosphere.<p>
By 2100, politicians will be crying for "Dioxinators" to spew even more CO2 into the atmosphere should "Global Oxygenation" threaten the delicate balance of high CO2.

<p>John Bailo<br>
<a href="http://sutext.texeme.com" rel="nofollow">Sutext:</a></br></p></p></p></br></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>MMMAAHHHMMMM! More CO2 Please!<p><br>
The adaptability of the human race is such that we will evolve to live in the new CO2 rich, very hot world of the late 21st century.<p>
The next generation may become dependent on the high CO2 released by naturogenic processes into the atmosphere.<p>
By 2100, politicians will be crying for "Dioxinators" to spew even more CO2 into the atmosphere should "Global Oxygenation" threaten the delicate balance of high CO2.

<p>John Bailo<br>
<a href="http://sutext.texeme.com" rel="nofollow">Sutext:</a></br></p></p></p></br></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #10 by Christine Gardner</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 27 Aug 2007 04:10:23 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-right-target/10</guid>
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				<p><strong>I'd buy into that</strong></p><p>I'd even slap that bumper sticker on the back of my bike trailer. </p><p>
Plus, I love the optimism. It's a nice break from the doom and gloom from China. </p><p>
And for the record, it's not a cop out. I would stand with my children for a carbon neutral country. It's not like we were handed a pristine platter from those that came before us.</p>
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				<p><strong>I'd buy into that</strong></p><p>I'd even slap that bumper sticker on the back of my bike trailer. </p><p>
Plus, I love the optimism. It's a nice break from the doom and gloom from China. </p><p>
And for the record, it's not a cop out. I would stand with my children for a carbon neutral country. It's not like we were handed a pristine platter from those that came before us.</p>
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