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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Conservative heads increasingly buried in sand]]></title>
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            <title>Comment #1 by Zach Arnold</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:18:21 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>The price is the problem<p>That's well and good, Ryan - but let's be clear that the price signal embodied in the currently high price of gas (to use the example that you and Sullivan cite) far exceeds anything we could hope to achieve in a cap-and-trade regime. Jim Barrett wrote <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/13/102946/364 " rel="nofollow">a great post at Grist recently and noted that the recent price increase in gas is about what would be expected to result from a carbon price of $200 per ton! That's far more than the price of carbon under any current (or currently envisioned) regime - and, as Barrett notes, even that price increase has only led to modest behavior changes, something like a 4% reduction in driving overall.<p>
A similar dynamic applies to electricity generation - the carbon prices necessary to make renewables cost-effective are way higher than anything being considered, as our <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Fast%20Clean%20Cheap.pdf" rel="nofollow">recent article in the Harvard Law and Policy Review explains. The price signal mechanism works in theory, but in practice, will it be strong enough to effect broad change on its own? Probably not. <p>
-Zach Arnold<br>
Fellow, <a href="http://www.breakthroughgen.org" rel="nofollow">Breakthrough Generation</a></br></p></a></p></a></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>The price is the problem<p>That's well and good, Ryan - but let's be clear that the price signal embodied in the currently high price of gas (to use the example that you and Sullivan cite) far exceeds anything we could hope to achieve in a cap-and-trade regime. Jim Barrett wrote <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/13/102946/364 " rel="nofollow">a great post at Grist recently and noted that the recent price increase in gas is about what would be expected to result from a carbon price of $200 per ton! That's far more than the price of carbon under any current (or currently envisioned) regime - and, as Barrett notes, even that price increase has only led to modest behavior changes, something like a 4% reduction in driving overall.<p>
A similar dynamic applies to electricity generation - the carbon prices necessary to make renewables cost-effective are way higher than anything being considered, as our <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/Fast%20Clean%20Cheap.pdf" rel="nofollow">recent article in the Harvard Law and Policy Review explains. The price signal mechanism works in theory, but in practice, will it be strong enough to effect broad change on its own? Probably not. <p>
-Zach Arnold<br>
Fellow, <a href="http://www.breakthroughgen.org" rel="nofollow">Breakthrough Generation</a></br></p></a></p></a></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #2 by David Roberts</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:29:49 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/2</guid>
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				<p><strong>Good thing ...</strong></p><p>... no one's arguing for the price signal in isolation! Because that strawman person would be seriously misguided.

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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				<p><strong>Good thing ...</strong></p><p>... no one's arguing for the price signal in isolation! Because that strawman person would be seriously misguided.

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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            <title>Comment #3 by Zach Arnold</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:57:59 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>Priorities</strong></p><p>All snark aside, David, it's a question of priorities. While most of us support adopting a diverse portfolio of tactics to address climate change, talk is cheap. Where are the environmental community's resources (nonprofit advocacy efforts, publicity, legislative legwork, etc.) directed? Mostly toward carbon pricing regimes like Lieberman/Warner, iCAP, Sky Trust, etc., as far as I can tell. This emphasis is dangerously misguided. Perhaps we should be focusing first on more effective approaches to the climate crisis instead.</p><p>
-Zach</p>
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				<p><strong>Priorities</strong></p><p>All snark aside, David, it's a question of priorities. While most of us support adopting a diverse portfolio of tactics to address climate change, talk is cheap. Where are the environmental community's resources (nonprofit advocacy efforts, publicity, legislative legwork, etc.) directed? Mostly toward carbon pricing regimes like Lieberman/Warner, iCAP, Sky Trust, etc., as far as I can tell. This emphasis is dangerously misguided. Perhaps we should be focusing first on more effective approaches to the climate crisis instead.</p><p>
-Zach</p>
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            <title>Comment #4 by Zach Arnold</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:15:08 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/4</guid>
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				<p><strong>And just to clarify...</strong></p><p>On that note, David, since you support both carbon pricing and investment (or so I gather), what do you think we should prioritize? Do you think that cap-and-trade should be the principal means to drive emissions reductions?</p><p>
Actually curious,<br>
Zach</br></p>
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				<p><strong>And just to clarify...</strong></p><p>On that note, David, since you support both carbon pricing and investment (or so I gather), what do you think we should prioritize? Do you think that cap-and-trade should be the principal means to drive emissions reductions?</p><p>
Actually curious,<br>
Zach</br></p>
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            <title>Comment #5 by David Roberts</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:18:49 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>Zach,</strong></p><p>Believe me, we've all heard the shtick before, and it remains a strawman. All the bills you list involve tens of billions of dollars in annual investment.</p><p>
And I get that you breakthroughlets have been let loose to carry your gurus' gospel around to the benighted masses, but do you really want to be selling it as "more effective"? It's been very effective at garnering press attention, but can you point to instances where it's been successful in doing something about climate change?

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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				<p><strong>Zach,</strong></p><p>Believe me, we've all heard the shtick before, and it remains a strawman. All the bills you list involve tens of billions of dollars in annual investment.</p><p>
And I get that you breakthroughlets have been let loose to carry your gurus' gospel around to the benighted masses, but do you really want to be selling it as "more effective"? It's been very effective at garnering press attention, but can you point to instances where it's been successful in doing something about climate change?

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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            <title>Comment #6 by David Roberts</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:21:43 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>re: curious</strong></p><p>I don't see why we need to prioritize them. I view them as complimentary; any climate policy that gets passed is going to include both. And it strikes me that arguing about it endlessly before we're close to having either is a great way to keep interns busy but not a great way to make anything actually happen.

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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				<p><strong>re: curious</strong></p><p>I don't see why we need to prioritize them. I view them as complimentary; any climate policy that gets passed is going to include both. And it strikes me that arguing about it endlessly before we're close to having either is a great way to keep interns busy but not a great way to make anything actually happen.

<p>grist.org</p></p>
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            <title>Comment #7 by Zach Arnold</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 11:06:07 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>re: Zach<p>David,<p>
I realize you have a history with Shellenberger and Nordhaus, but it'd be nice if you could engage the ideas, rather than whatever idea of me and the rest of the <a href="http://breakthroughgen.org/fellows/" rel="nofollow">fellows you seem to have already formed. Sarcasm and belittling the messenger might work for you normally (I don't know - I'm a new commenter), but they reflect poorly on Grist and your argument.<p>
In any case, by "more effective" I was referring to government RD&amp;D funding, which has a proven track record in promoting clean energy (see: Denmark's early investment in wind technology, American renewable energy subsidies and RPS initiatives, etc). The success of existing cap-and-trade regimes (like the ETS) in reducing emissions, meanwhile, is <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2008/03/it_has_become_an_article.shtml" rel="nofollow">considerably less certain.<p>
Cheers -Zach</p></a></p></a></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>re: Zach<p>David,<p>
I realize you have a history with Shellenberger and Nordhaus, but it'd be nice if you could engage the ideas, rather than whatever idea of me and the rest of the <a href="http://breakthroughgen.org/fellows/" rel="nofollow">fellows you seem to have already formed. Sarcasm and belittling the messenger might work for you normally (I don't know - I'm a new commenter), but they reflect poorly on Grist and your argument.<p>
In any case, by "more effective" I was referring to government RD&amp;D funding, which has a proven track record in promoting clean energy (see: Denmark's early investment in wind technology, American renewable energy subsidies and RPS initiatives, etc). The success of existing cap-and-trade regimes (like the ETS) in reducing emissions, meanwhile, is <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2008/03/it_has_become_an_article.shtml" rel="nofollow">considerably less certain.<p>
Cheers -Zach</p></a></p></a></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #8 by hapa</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:33:14 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/8</guid>
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				<p><strong>zach</strong></p><p>damn. that's some q&amp;a.</p><p>
i know some labor activists who want their eight-hour days back.</p><p>
i know some environmental activists who want their clean drinking water back.</p><p>
and -- about "deficits don't matter" -- i know a whole bunch of people who want their houses back.</p><p>
you really think all this wonderful stuff grew on the business tree, without tending? capitalism is agriculture by other means.</p><p>
you don't have to be a sucker to be positive.</p>
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				<p><strong>zach</strong></p><p>damn. that's some q&amp;a.</p><p>
i know some labor activists who want their eight-hour days back.</p><p>
i know some environmental activists who want their clean drinking water back.</p><p>
and -- about "deficits don't matter" -- i know a whole bunch of people who want their houses back.</p><p>
you really think all this wonderful stuff grew on the business tree, without tending? capitalism is agriculture by other means.</p><p>
you don't have to be a sucker to be positive.</p>
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            <title>Comment #9 by Wolverine</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jun 2008 09:30:57 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/9</guid>
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				<p><strong>False Conceptions About Pricing</strong></p><p>The now-repeated lie -- that because a large increase in U.S. gasoline prices has only produced a 4% decrease in driving, price increases will not produce significant reductions -- is ludicrous. &nbsp;As prices continue to increase, driving will decrease by an even greater percentage and at a much greater rate per dollar increase in gasoline. &nbsp;Why? &nbsp;Simple: as the price of gas continues to increase, it becomes less viable for people to drive long distances, and eventually to drive at all. &nbsp;Considering how behavior has changed with an increase of $2/gallon, then imagine how it will change with an increase of another $2 or $4.</p><p>
The fact remains that the more expensive it is to consume energy from sources other than local wind and solar, the less people will consume it and the better off the planet will be.</p>
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				<p><strong>False Conceptions About Pricing</strong></p><p>The now-repeated lie -- that because a large increase in U.S. gasoline prices has only produced a 4% decrease in driving, price increases will not produce significant reductions -- is ludicrous. &nbsp;As prices continue to increase, driving will decrease by an even greater percentage and at a much greater rate per dollar increase in gasoline. &nbsp;Why? &nbsp;Simple: as the price of gas continues to increase, it becomes less viable for people to drive long distances, and eventually to drive at all. &nbsp;Considering how behavior has changed with an increase of $2/gallon, then imagine how it will change with an increase of another $2 or $4.</p><p>
The fact remains that the more expensive it is to consume energy from sources other than local wind and solar, the less people will consume it and the better off the planet will be.</p>
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            <title>Comment #10 by Zach Arnold</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:52:51 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/the-grand-ostrich-party/10</guid>
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				<p><strong>re: Wolverine<p>Wolverine - true, the demand curve for gas is not linear, and consumers may respond more strongly as the price of gas increases further. But the point is that the price signal these increases would embody is far, far larger than the price signal we could expect to achieve from taxing or capping carbon. It would take a carbon price of about $200 a ton to effect the 4% reduction in driving we've seen thus far (as Jim Barrett explained in his <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/13/102946/364" rel="nofollow">post); increasing the price of gas further via a carbon tax/cap, then, would require raising the carbon price significantly above $200/ton. Not exactly feasible...<p>
cheers, Zach</p></a></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>re: Wolverine<p>Wolverine - true, the demand curve for gas is not linear, and consumers may respond more strongly as the price of gas increases further. But the point is that the price signal these increases would embody is far, far larger than the price signal we could expect to achieve from taxing or capping carbon. It would take a carbon price of about $200 a ton to effect the 4% reduction in driving we've seen thus far (as Jim Barrett explained in his <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/13/102946/364" rel="nofollow">post); increasing the price of gas further via a carbon tax/cap, then, would require raising the carbon price significantly above $200/ton. Not exactly feasible...<p>
cheers, Zach</p></a></p></strong></p>
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