<![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Your chance to get in on the hydrogen action]]> Grist Comment Feed en Comment #1 by Matt G http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 05:19:50 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/1 Any takers?

More importantly, is Greg Blencoe taking any more bets?

Hydrogen would have been a great idea in a world with a high price for fossil fuels, had batteries not improved.  But the price of fossil fuels won't reach the required levels in 8 years to have hydrogen make sense, and sustainable hydrogen generation wouldn't exist in sufficient quantity in 8 years even if we started building them right now.

]]> Any takers?

More importantly, is Greg Blencoe taking any more bets?

Hydrogen would have been a great idea in a world with a high price for fossil fuels, had batteries not improved.  But the price of fossil fuels won't reach the required levels in 8 years to have hydrogen make sense, and sustainable hydrogen generation wouldn't exist in sufficient quantity in 8 years even if we started building them right now.

]]> Comment #2 by Sean Casten http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 05:43:16 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/2 Suggest a credit check

Betting $1000 on hydrogen makes me question whether your man is going to be solvent to pay off the bet.  I hope his future bank balance isn't dependent on hydrogen vehicles taking off.  Get him to set up an escrow account now!

]]> Suggest a credit check

Betting $1000 on hydrogen makes me question whether your man is going to be solvent to pay off the bet.  I hope his future bank balance isn't dependent on hydrogen vehicles taking off.  Get him to set up an escrow account now!

]]> Comment #3 by nearing http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 07:33:17 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/3 hydrogen

Matt G,

I am curious as to why you feel that that fossil fuels won't reach a high price.

]]> hydrogen

Matt G,

I am curious as to why you feel that that fossil fuels won't reach a high price.

]]> Comment #4 by Matt G http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 09:31:04 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/4 hydrogen

I certainly can't predict future oil prices, but in order for Hydrogen to pay off we'd need gas prices to really skyrocket.  If I drive 40 miles a day at 35MPG, and gas is at $3.50 a gallon, that's $1,460 a year in fuel costs.  That means even if hydrogen was completely free, a hydrogen car can't cost much more than a regular car if you want to make back your investment.  Of course, hydrogen isn't free - grabbing a random pro-hydrogen article, hydrogen from wind electrolysis would cost around $3-4 per energy equivalent of a gallon, plus the regular grouping of state, federal, and local taxes.  

So even if gasoline doubles in price, a hydrogen vehicle couldn't be more than, say, $15,000 more than regular cars and sell well.  

Now, can gas prices more than double in the next 8 years?  Sure.  Can they more than double soon enough to build a large new market within 8 years?  It just doesn't strike me as likely.  

]]> hydrogen

I certainly can't predict future oil prices, but in order for Hydrogen to pay off we'd need gas prices to really skyrocket.  If I drive 40 miles a day at 35MPG, and gas is at $3.50 a gallon, that's $1,460 a year in fuel costs.  That means even if hydrogen was completely free, a hydrogen car can't cost much more than a regular car if you want to make back your investment.  Of course, hydrogen isn't free - grabbing a random pro-hydrogen article, hydrogen from wind electrolysis would cost around $3-4 per energy equivalent of a gallon, plus the regular grouping of state, federal, and local taxes.  

So even if gasoline doubles in price, a hydrogen vehicle couldn't be more than, say, $15,000 more than regular cars and sell well.  

Now, can gas prices more than double in the next 8 years?  Sure.  Can they more than double soon enough to build a large new market within 8 years?  It just doesn't strike me as likely.  

]]> Comment #5 by Biodiversivist http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 13:31:02 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/5 You could still lose this bet

If politicians find political advantage in promoting hydrogen as they have with corn ethanol.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

]]> You could still lose this bet

If politicians find political advantage in promoting hydrogen as they have with corn ethanol.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

]]> Comment #6 by JasonYohon http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Mon, 22 Oct 2007 23:59:00 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/6 Hydrogen is a scam

Hydrogen is a scam. It makes no sense whatsoever, none. 20 years from now the same people that are trying to sell hydrogen cars will be saying (still) "We've almost got it, all we need is more money!"

]]> Hydrogen is a scam

Hydrogen is a scam. It makes no sense whatsoever, none. 20 years from now the same people that are trying to sell hydrogen cars will be saying (still) "We've almost got it, all we need is more money!"

]]> Comment #7 by Delay And Deny http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Tue, 23 Oct 2007 01:55:06 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/7 H(2)(8)rs will eat crow!


"fuelable at under 1% of the filling stations"

Yes, but right now LA, the biggest driving city in America is populated with H-filling stations thanks to Arnold (the real Nobelist).   If we can just get LA to convert to hydrogen that would be a significant percentage of cars!

And if LA can build a hydrogen highway in 3 years others can as well!

"have a shorter range than a typical gasoline vehicle"

You assume zero progress in storage technology, yet in the past 2 years breakthrough research in materials that can hold hydrogen and release when needed (rather than using compressed gas) have been announced.   Time to market is probably 2 to 3 years.

"have a big first-cost penalty that will never be paid back (since the annual fuel bill will probably be higher)"

The Chevy Volt, a plug-in electric, will have a hydrogen fuel cell option.  It retails for $30,000 - since it's a compact, that probably is the $10,000 premium that you mentioned.  But its still way affordable by a lot of people who would think nothing of plunking down $40,000 for an Audi or minivan

John Bailo
Sutext:



]]> H(2)(8)rs will eat crow!


"fuelable at under 1% of the filling stations"

Yes, but right now LA, the biggest driving city in America is populated with H-filling stations thanks to Arnold (the real Nobelist).   If we can just get LA to convert to hydrogen that would be a significant percentage of cars!

And if LA can build a hydrogen highway in 3 years others can as well!

"have a shorter range than a typical gasoline vehicle"

You assume zero progress in storage technology, yet in the past 2 years breakthrough research in materials that can hold hydrogen and release when needed (rather than using compressed gas) have been announced.   Time to market is probably 2 to 3 years.

"have a big first-cost penalty that will never be paid back (since the annual fuel bill will probably be higher)"

The Chevy Volt, a plug-in electric, will have a hydrogen fuel cell option.  It retails for $30,000 - since it's a compact, that probably is the $10,000 premium that you mentioned.  But its still way affordable by a lot of people who would think nothing of plunking down $40,000 for an Audi or minivan

John Bailo
Sutext:



]]> Comment #8 by GreyFlcn http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:09:43 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/8 It's not about that

If politicians find political advantage in promoting hydrogen as they have with corn ethanol.

But thats a fundamental misunderstanding of what this whole charade is about.

They can't stop electric cars.
But they can slow them down with flashy diversions.

Put it this way.

The tag line from Detroit is "Don't increase our fuel economy! No.  We should switch fuels!"

And even if biofuels did work.  The cars wouldn't really change, and the liquid fuel distribution centers wouldn't really change.

]]> It's not about that

If politicians find political advantage in promoting hydrogen as they have with corn ethanol.

But thats a fundamental misunderstanding of what this whole charade is about.

They can't stop electric cars.
But they can slow them down with flashy diversions.

Put it this way.

The tag line from Detroit is "Don't increase our fuel economy! No.  We should switch fuels!"

And even if biofuels did work.  The cars wouldn't really change, and the liquid fuel distribution centers wouldn't really change.

]]> Comment #9 by GRLCowan http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:12:33 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/9 The cost of retailed hydrogen ...

is principally shipping and handling.

Introduction. For the past half century, most cities of population over 100,000 in industrialized nations have had dozens of industrial and research users regularly purchasing pressurized hydrogen gas in heavy steel cylinders containing about 0.5 kg H2 per cylinder. The price of this hydrogen has been reasonably stable at about $100/kg plus cylinder rental...

(http://www.dotynmr.com/PDF/Doty_H2Price.pdf)

That's enough of an existing hydrogen infrastructure to be very hard for a new, different one to beat on price, even if the stuff cost nothing at its points of production.

--- G. R. L. Cowan, boron internal combustion fan
How shall cars gain nuclear cachet?
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html

]]> The cost of retailed hydrogen ...

is principally shipping and handling.

Introduction. For the past half century, most cities of population over 100,000 in industrialized nations have had dozens of industrial and research users regularly purchasing pressurized hydrogen gas in heavy steel cylinders containing about 0.5 kg H2 per cylinder. The price of this hydrogen has been reasonably stable at about $100/kg plus cylinder rental...

(http://www.dotynmr.com/PDF/Doty_H2Price.pdf)

That's enough of an existing hydrogen infrastructure to be very hard for a new, different one to beat on price, even if the stuff cost nothing at its points of production.

--- G. R. L. Cowan, boron internal combustion fan
How shall cars gain nuclear cachet?
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html

]]> Comment #10 by GreyFlcn http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:15:16 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/10 The other interesting thing to note

The other interesting thing to note, is that biofuels require nitrogen fertilizers.

Nitrogen fertilizers come from turning natural gas, into ammonia.

CH4 into NH3 + CO2

On that same measure, the only practical way to generate hydrogen fuel which reduces emissions is to create it from natural gas

CH4 into H2 + CO2

_

The companies that own most the rights to natural gas drilling are the same ones which own most the rights to oil drilling.

And currently the world's largest consumer of hydrogen, is oil companies.

Which they use to separate out he different fractions of a barrel of oil.

And more recently to separate out the sulfur in diesel and gasoline.

_

Oil companies are Hydrogen companies.

They are specialists in selling two atoms.
Carbon and Hydrogen.

]]> The other interesting thing to note

The other interesting thing to note, is that biofuels require nitrogen fertilizers.

Nitrogen fertilizers come from turning natural gas, into ammonia.

CH4 into NH3 + CO2

On that same measure, the only practical way to generate hydrogen fuel which reduces emissions is to create it from natural gas

CH4 into H2 + CO2

_

The companies that own most the rights to natural gas drilling are the same ones which own most the rights to oil drilling.

And currently the world's largest consumer of hydrogen, is oil companies.

Which they use to separate out he different fractions of a barrel of oil.

And more recently to separate out the sulfur in diesel and gasoline.

_

Oil companies are Hydrogen companies.

They are specialists in selling two atoms.
Carbon and Hydrogen.

]]> Comment #11 by Darrell http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/ Tue, 23 Oct 2007 06:14:25 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/the-big-bet/11 Re: H(2)(8)rs will eat crow!

Yes, but right now LA, the biggest driving city in America is populated with H-filling stations thanks to Arnold

Uh, hardly, about a whole six locations in all of Los Angeles County, according to the DOE: City of Burbank; Air Quality Management District in Diamond Bar; LAX Airport; City of Santa Monica; and Honda and Toyota in Torrance.

]]> Re: H(2)(8)rs will eat crow!

Yes, but right now LA, the biggest driving city in America is populated with H-filling stations thanks to Arnold

Uh, hardly, about a whole six locations in all of Los Angeles County, according to the DOE: City of Burbank; Air Quality Management District in Diamond Bar; LAX Airport; City of Santa Monica; and Honda and Toyota in Torrance.

]]>