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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Climate change mitigation costs less than doing nothing about the problem]]></title>
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            <title>Comment #1 by Kit Stolz</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/rff-must-read-the-stern-report-got-it-right/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2007 15:59:46 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>Who is this think tank?</strong></p><p>Can you tell us more about this think tank? I'm not familiar with them at all. </p>
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				<p><strong>Who is this think tank?</strong></p><p>Can you tell us more about this think tank? I'm not familiar with them at all. </p>
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            <title>Comment #2 by Gar Lipow</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/rff-must-read-the-stern-report-got-it-right/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2007 16:13:17 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>Discount Rate<p>&nbsp;Stern never used a discount rate as low as 1 or 1.4. He used a standard eta, and a low delta - which ended up with a discount rate in the neighborhood of &nbsp;4.6% which was slightly above the rate of the U.S. ten year long bond at the time. If you don't mind, I will link to a Quiggin <a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/06/close-to-zero/" rel="nofollow">blog post which is much less technical than the two Quiggin pieces you quoted, but explains the confusion:<p>
<br>
Given eta = 1, the discount rate is equal to the rate of growth of consumption per person, plus 0.1. A reasonable estimate for the growth rate is 2 per cent, so Stern would have a real discount rate of 2.1 per cent. Allowing for 2.5 per cent inflation, that's equal to a nominal rate of 4.6 per cent. The US 10-year bond rate, probably the most directly comparable market rate, is currently 4.44 per cent; a bit above its long-run average in real terms. So, Stern's approach produces a discount rate a little above the real bond rate.<br>
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<p>
Your larger point about Stern undervaluing the damage from climate chaos is quite right.</p></br></br></br></p></a></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Discount Rate<p>&nbsp;Stern never used a discount rate as low as 1 or 1.4. He used a standard eta, and a low delta - which ended up with a discount rate in the neighborhood of &nbsp;4.6% which was slightly above the rate of the U.S. ten year long bond at the time. If you don't mind, I will link to a Quiggin <a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/06/close-to-zero/" rel="nofollow">blog post which is much less technical than the two Quiggin pieces you quoted, but explains the confusion:<p>
<br>
Given eta = 1, the discount rate is equal to the rate of growth of consumption per person, plus 0.1. A reasonable estimate for the growth rate is 2 per cent, so Stern would have a real discount rate of 2.1 per cent. Allowing for 2.5 per cent inflation, that's equal to a nominal rate of 4.6 per cent. The US 10-year bond rate, probably the most directly comparable market rate, is currently 4.44 per cent; a bit above its long-run average in real terms. So, Stern's approach produces a discount rate a little above the real bond rate.<br>
<br>
<p>
Your larger point about Stern undervaluing the damage from climate chaos is quite right.</p></br></br></br></p></a></p></strong></p>
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