I have read the "Peak Oil" predictions of extreme optimists, and extreme pessimists.  I can't help but think they are both seeing the future through the lense of their belief (or lack thereof) in the world economy.  I'd say Marshall Brain is stuck in his position as firmly as Jim Kunstler is stuck in his.

I trust people more when they aren't quite so sure of what is going to happen next.  I think it is true that if oil/energy prices rise slowly we will have plenty of time to adjust.  I think it is also true that if hard oil shocks come, we will suffer dire economic consequences.

Until we live that future, the prudent thing is to make the simple productive steps which will prepare us for change.  Do what we can.

But anyone who knows the future is running on religion.

Good for you, Dave, in questioning Marshall Brain's peak oil optimism.   I suspect that as Brain delves more deeply into the subject, he will start to feel the foreboding that you and many of us feel.

Petroleum is not just energy, but energy in a spectacularly convenient form.  It's concentrated (as compared with solar energy or biomass); it's easily transportable (vs LNG or coal); it's uniquely suited for fueling transportation (e.g. air travel).

Cheap energy is an intrinsic part of our civilization; it's so basic and vital that we are unaware how critical it is.  With cheap energy, we can do almost anything.  Without it, we are much more constrained.  It will be hard to develop alternative energy sources after petroleum, raw materials and transport have shot up in price.  

Consider earlier periods of history.  If it is so easy to generate cheap energy, why didn't our ancestors do it?  They had wind and biomass... there were smart people... but for most of history, cheap energy didn't happen.  The classic strategy for generating an energy surplus was exploitation -- slavery and feudalism.

Industrialization, modern capitalism and the population explosion only began with the adoption of coal in the 1600-1700s.  In the 20th century, petroleum put our civilization in overdrive.

We are like a trust baby who has been given a huge (but finite) inheritance in fossil fuels.  We've been spending it at an exponentially increasing rate.  The greybeards tell us that we're going to run out of money someday, but we aren't worried.   Things have always come easily to us; something will turn up.    

No one will use 4-5 cent electricity from solar power when they can just burn coal for 2-3 cents.

So when oil runs out, they will burn more coal, which produces MORE CO2 per unit of energy produced than oil.  So, barring some external restriction,  the climate change problem will get worse, not better.  Oil is also much more convenient than coal to move around, so we will have more energy costs in our energy infrastructure itself.

Electric vehicles are not a clear win, due to the cost of batteries.  And hydrogen is a clear loser.

The "answer" (to paraphrase Thomas Edison) is that we need to produce electricity so cheaply that only rich will be able to afford to burn coal.  That includes rich Chinese.....

A bunch of mirrors in Texas ain't gonna do it....

Build plugin hybrids that run on renewable methane. That's all that's needed.

in fact, I agree wholeheartedly with odo and bart here...I think we can at least soften the landing.

I just don't think it's going to happen without a lot of activism and norm changing.  Petroleum is too fundamental...and until we wean ourselves off it and find something scaleable that will replace it, I feel like I gotta scream about it.

(though I think we/TOD scream about it less than we could...)

profgoose, The Oil Drum