Much of the reason that various commentators aren't too worried about peak oil is because they are not very literate about how the various pieces of the economy fit together.  Oil use in factories, by the way, besides feedstocks, is negligible (electricity is critical there), so much of the peak oil doomer talk is also uninformed, insofar as we can keep factories going as long as there is...oy vay, coal (or god forbid renewable electricity).

The rest of the oil use, besides cars and airplanes, is almost all internal combustion engines (by the way, I don't see the airline industry surviving in its current form with very expensive fuel).  So for the big machinery that is used for mining, for construction, and most importantly, for trucking (and some diesel rail) stuff all over the place, including shipping around the world, a rapidly rising oil price would be very painful.  It's not so much the production that would be hurt -- with the big exception of construction -- it's moving everything around.  In particular, trade would be devastated, which is why it's peculiar that American commentators in general, who are usually enamored of trade, are not more concerned -- or maybe they are just not aware of what makes trade possible, which is cheap oil.

There are a lot of creative responses yet to be explored.

We are again arguing pre-adaptation, while "current gasoline prices are actually quite low as a share of household income by historical standards"

We can pilot, test, report on our adaptation techniques, and they might be picked up as energy prices rise, and more people (each at their own individual threshold) respond.

(I can report that my Prius works very well for me, though my adaptation in 2005 was "premature" by mainstream standards.)

BTW, it should be noted that not all experiments in adaptation are successful.  And one nice thing about a slow response is that we don't, in some huge misguided leap, put all our eggs in the wrong basket.

I went with cars because it's the issue Yglesias raised, not because I think, thought, or will think that cars are the sole important factor.

That said, I think cars are a keystone that, if made oil-free with some speed, could buy the planet precious time.  When you consider that the EWG says we could be at 40 mbd of oil by 2030, we need to pick the low-hanging fruit fast, and personal vehicles are exactly that.  

If you just look at EIA numbers for fuel and bunker use in the U.S., sure, light-duty vehicle take the cake with regards percentage of crude oil usage.  If you look at it from a global perspective, like ships and foreign transportation (e.g., COSTCO shipping from China) you might see a different picture about the "heavy duty engine" aspects.  

But I think we still have a fundamental problem here.  Crude oil is refined not only into gasoline and distillates like diesel and heating oil, but also is used for everything from making dick rubbers to the material in computer disks.  Even pharmaceuticals are made from crude oil as refined, treated, and cultured.  So what if it is only 0.01 percent of the feedstock, when it is gone it is gone.

Obviously, the hydrocarbon hose isn't going to be shut off tomorrow, but gradually lose pressure and become a trickle.  

But be careful about what you hope for.  Some of you tend to gloat about dead gasoline cars on the side of the road, abandoned because there's no more gas.  "Neener neener neener I got me an electric!"

You're talking about not only an engineering problem but a social one as well.  Be careful.  People have wars over this kind of chit.  /sammie

Onward through the fog

 Peak oil is going to hit the U.S. economy hard. The success of Industrialization has to do with cheap fossil fuels.  Our entire economic system depends on cheap energy. Once cheap energy  goes then economic growth slows At the same time the higher price of energy creates inflationary pressures because energy is the lynch pin of the economy.  Everything depends on it:  manufacturing, trade, transportation and housing...   We are looking at a return to the seventies style stagflation as costs go up and businesses go down the tube.  

    What we should be pushing is a massive upgrading of railroads and passenger trains as a way of creating a more energy efficient transportation system.

>>Progressive pundits don't seem to be fully grappling with the oil problem

That would be because the overwhelming majority of them are innumerate. I won't speculate on cause and effect, but that is my observation from forty years of watching current events turn into history.

Well, as some oil-men like to point out, the left side of the aisle likes to go for the easy one: it's always the oil company's fault.

When you think you can ride 'evil oil companies' to the next election, it's kind of hard to slow down and say that those companies might be facing a problem.

Thanks to the "Green Revolution" of the '50s and '60s, international agribusiness is now reliant on fossil fuel-based fertilizers.