<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
<channel>
	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for We can&#8217;t wait for new nukes, so what do we do now?]]></title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.grist.org/rss/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<description>Grist Comment Feed</description>
	<language>en</language>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #1 by Matt G</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 03:42:01 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/1</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Can we start talking in terms of energy?</strong></p><p>Discussing power is fine, as long as you make it very clear what you're talking about. &nbsp;As soon as you start talking in GWh instead of GW, I'll take your articles more seriously.</p><p>
(for those that don't know what I'm talking about - a GW of wind power means when wind is blowing at design conditions on every one of the turbines, and a GW of solar is sun shining at noon on a cloudless day)</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Can we start talking in terms of energy?</strong></p><p>Discussing power is fine, as long as you make it very clear what you're talking about. &nbsp;As soon as you start talking in GWh instead of GW, I'll take your articles more seriously.</p><p>
(for those that don't know what I'm talking about - a GW of wind power means when wind is blowing at design conditions on every one of the turbines, and a GW of solar is sun shining at noon on a cloudless day)</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #2 by Sharon Astyk</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 04:57:30 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/2</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>The problems of intermittency and dispatchability<p>...have simply not been overcome with either wind or solar. &nbsp;A quick skim of the reports you cite suggest that both underestimate capacity factors in their estimates. &nbsp;And recent example of wind shutdowns during the Grangemouth refinery shutdowns points up just how dependent renewables are on fossil fueled back up plants - up to 60% of capacity in some estimates<p>
<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3919#more" rel="nofollow">http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3919#more. &nbsp;<p>
Then there's the DOE commissioned Hirsch Report that suggests that a major build out of renewables would take about 20 years at WWII levels - which means that we won't be seeing that much capacity before 2018 anyway.<p>
Little as any of us like it, it may well be the case that most of what we have is negawatts - and if we're to get to 350ppm, that means a <strong>LOT of negawatts, a life much less like Californians, and much more like Keralans, Sri Lankans, Venezuelans, Cubans. &nbsp;<p>
IMHO, we're not going to get there if we keep selling the idea that all we have to do is be Californians.<p>
Sharon Astyk<br>


<p>Sharon, with dirt under her fingernails.</p></br></p></p></strong></p></p></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>The problems of intermittency and dispatchability<p>...have simply not been overcome with either wind or solar. &nbsp;A quick skim of the reports you cite suggest that both underestimate capacity factors in their estimates. &nbsp;And recent example of wind shutdowns during the Grangemouth refinery shutdowns points up just how dependent renewables are on fossil fueled back up plants - up to 60% of capacity in some estimates<p>
<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3919#more" rel="nofollow">http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3919#more. &nbsp;<p>
Then there's the DOE commissioned Hirsch Report that suggests that a major build out of renewables would take about 20 years at WWII levels - which means that we won't be seeing that much capacity before 2018 anyway.<p>
Little as any of us like it, it may well be the case that most of what we have is negawatts - and if we're to get to 350ppm, that means a <strong>LOT of negawatts, a life much less like Californians, and much more like Keralans, Sri Lankans, Venezuelans, Cubans. &nbsp;<p>
IMHO, we're not going to get there if we keep selling the idea that all we have to do is be Californians.<p>
Sharon Astyk<br>


<p>Sharon, with dirt under her fingernails.</p></br></p></p></strong></p></p></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #3 by Jon Rynn</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 05:27:00 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/3</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Doable, but with culture changes<p>Sharon --<p>
As I tried to show <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/2/18/212538/864" rel="nofollow">here, you could shut down all the coal plants if all buildings were to heat and cool themselves -- in my example, with geothermal heat exchange underneath and some PV on top, but there are other possible combinations. &nbsp;If people lived in dense areas, as I argued <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/3/11/224622/790" rel="nofollow">here, then you could eliminate most oil use. &nbsp;<p>
The point is, we'd have to go beyond California, certainly, in changing the way the society is put together, but we wouldn't have to abandon industrial civilization altogether.</p></a></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Doable, but with culture changes<p>Sharon --<p>
As I tried to show <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/2/18/212538/864" rel="nofollow">here, you could shut down all the coal plants if all buildings were to heat and cool themselves -- in my example, with geothermal heat exchange underneath and some PV on top, but there are other possible combinations. &nbsp;If people lived in dense areas, as I argued <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/3/11/224622/790" rel="nofollow">here, then you could eliminate most oil use. &nbsp;<p>
The point is, we'd have to go beyond California, certainly, in changing the way the society is put together, but we wouldn't have to abandon industrial civilization altogether.</p></a></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #4 by Ron Steenblik</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 06:01:03 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/4</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Interruptible power<p>Joseph, years ago I suggested to the (then) IEA's expert on electricity that one way to shave peak demand would be to allow not just <a href="http://www.aub.org/indust_po.php" rel="nofollow">industrial but also residential consumers to pay a lower electricity charge for putting up with interruptible power. She dismissed the idea as unworkable, but in this day and age, with sophisticated communication networks and control devices, is it such a dumb idea?<p>
Here in France, in order to increase the capacity utilization of their nuclear-based power grid, consumers are encouraged to use appliances at night. (EDF charges about 60% more for electricity consumed between 7 AM and 11 PM.) Electric water heaters are on a switch that gets turned on at 11 PM and then goes off at 7 AM (these can be over-ridden by the home-owner, if they so desire). And many dish-washing and clothes-washing machines have built-in timers, so that the owner can program them to turn on in the middle of the night, to take advantage of the lower electricity tariff.<p>
That is not the same as signing up for unpredictable, interruptible power, but I would imagine the signal technologies would be similar. Presumably, different packages would be offered. For people worried about food spoilage from having refrigerators or freezers turned off for too long, they might (for example) sign up for a plan that guarantees no more than 1 hour of interruptibility at any one time -- say, for no more than 10 days a month. I could imagine that devices could be created that would ring a bell in the home to let the consumer know that an outage was imminent. <p>
Do you know whether any electric utility has ever tried this? If not, have you ever heard anybody discuss the idea?

<p>These are only my personal opinions.</p></p></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Interruptible power<p>Joseph, years ago I suggested to the (then) IEA's expert on electricity that one way to shave peak demand would be to allow not just <a href="http://www.aub.org/indust_po.php" rel="nofollow">industrial but also residential consumers to pay a lower electricity charge for putting up with interruptible power. She dismissed the idea as unworkable, but in this day and age, with sophisticated communication networks and control devices, is it such a dumb idea?<p>
Here in France, in order to increase the capacity utilization of their nuclear-based power grid, consumers are encouraged to use appliances at night. (EDF charges about 60% more for electricity consumed between 7 AM and 11 PM.) Electric water heaters are on a switch that gets turned on at 11 PM and then goes off at 7 AM (these can be over-ridden by the home-owner, if they so desire). And many dish-washing and clothes-washing machines have built-in timers, so that the owner can program them to turn on in the middle of the night, to take advantage of the lower electricity tariff.<p>
That is not the same as signing up for unpredictable, interruptible power, but I would imagine the signal technologies would be similar. Presumably, different packages would be offered. For people worried about food spoilage from having refrigerators or freezers turned off for too long, they might (for example) sign up for a plan that guarantees no more than 1 hour of interruptibility at any one time -- say, for no more than 10 days a month. I could imagine that devices could be created that would ring a bell in the home to let the consumer know that an outage was imminent. <p>
Do you know whether any electric utility has ever tried this? If not, have you ever heard anybody discuss the idea?

<p>These are only my personal opinions.</p></p></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #5 by Delay And Deny</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 06:57:01 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/5</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Windows! Windows! Windows!<p><a href="http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9937182-54.html?tag=nefd.top" rel="nofollow">http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9937182-54.html?tag=nefd ...<p>
Solar company HelioVolt and Architectural Glass &amp; Aluminum on Tuesday announced a partnership to produce glass windows capable of generating electricity. 

<p><a href="http://texeme.com" rel="nofollow">Texeme.Construct(Participant)</a></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Windows! Windows! Windows!<p><a href="http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9937182-54.html?tag=nefd.top" rel="nofollow">http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9937182-54.html?tag=nefd ...<p>
Solar company HelioVolt and Architectural Glass &amp; Aluminum on Tuesday announced a partnership to produce glass windows capable of generating electricity. 

<p><a href="http://texeme.com" rel="nofollow">Texeme.Construct(Participant)</a></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #6 by Tasermons Partner</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 12:49:17 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/6</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Left out a few...</strong></p><p>...like geothermal, landfill gas, tidal...</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Left out a few...</strong></p><p>...like geothermal, landfill gas, tidal...</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #7 by KenG</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 13:41:08 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/7</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Load Management</strong></p><p>Ron,</p><p>
Various types of residential load management have been in use in the US for many years, they just haven't spread. The relatively low cost of electricity in the US has limited the incentive. The rising costs, reduced reserve margins and significant recent reductions in the cost of the load management hardware suggest we'll see a lot more of it.</p><p>
For a while it was quite common for customers with electric heat to get a much lower rate for heating power in exchange for agreeing to be interruptible. I think this went away in some cases because utility regulators banned any discounts that would encourage electric heat as a way to avoid building new power plants.</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Load Management</strong></p><p>Ron,</p><p>
Various types of residential load management have been in use in the US for many years, they just haven't spread. The relatively low cost of electricity in the US has limited the incentive. The rising costs, reduced reserve margins and significant recent reductions in the cost of the load management hardware suggest we'll see a lot more of it.</p><p>
For a while it was quite common for customers with electric heat to get a much lower rate for heating power in exchange for agreeing to be interruptible. I think this went away in some cases because utility regulators banned any discounts that would encourage electric heat as a way to avoid building new power plants.</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #8 by dotcommodity</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 14:15:15 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/8</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>for immediate impact - pass a Feed In Tariff<p>like Germany did, now they have more solar roofs than anyone in Europe. <p>
If people can make a little extra by selling their electricity at retail to the utility they will put up solar pamels. <p>
And if the electricity is a little more expensive (to fund that retail price the utilites must pay for anybodys electrons) then there is both the carrot of the extra income to be made, and the stick of the extra cost if you don't join in.<p>
A FIT is designed so that you earn a little more than your monthly payments on the solar panels, large or small.<p>
PBS interviewed a pigfarmer in Germany who was making $60,000 yr in profit on panels he put up in his fields.

<p>MCain = McSame: check this <a href="http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/02/23/mccmain-talks-environment-misses-votes-when-it-counts/" rel="nofollow">eco voting record (!)</a></p></p></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>for immediate impact - pass a Feed In Tariff<p>like Germany did, now they have more solar roofs than anyone in Europe. <p>
If people can make a little extra by selling their electricity at retail to the utility they will put up solar pamels. <p>
And if the electricity is a little more expensive (to fund that retail price the utilites must pay for anybodys electrons) then there is both the carrot of the extra income to be made, and the stick of the extra cost if you don't join in.<p>
A FIT is designed so that you earn a little more than your monthly payments on the solar panels, large or small.<p>
PBS interviewed a pigfarmer in Germany who was making $60,000 yr in profit on panels he put up in his fields.

<p>MCain = McSame: check this <a href="http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/02/23/mccmain-talks-environment-misses-votes-when-it-counts/" rel="nofollow">eco voting record (!)</a></p></p></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #9 by amazingdrx</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 10 May 2008 02:03:05 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/9</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>good one Dot</strong></p><p>Wisconsin Electric is paying customers 23 cents per kwh for their solar power here. &nbsp;11 cents retail plus 12 cents in subsidy. &nbsp;</p><p>
Why can't the feds pay everyone 10 cents per kwh? &nbsp;Then the power company could pay you retail and you would get a check from the government for 10 cents extra, per kwh, every month.</p><p>
It would work very well. &nbsp;divert the money to pay for it from subsidies for the old failing energy economy. &nbsp;Coal, nuclear, oil, all the big pork industries. &nbsp;Oil gets 13 billion per year alone and a pass on 7 billion in oil lease fees from the Bushies.</p><p>
Agribizz subsidies are huge! &nbsp;It would be feasible to divert 50 billion per year.</p><p>
Germany is doing this to the extreme, this is a milder plan. &nbsp;more acceptable to US politics. &nbsp;A populist movement behind direct subsidies to homeowners and farmers to supply power should work. &nbsp;Farmers riding biogas powered tractors, shunning foreign oil. &nbsp;Thaty sort of image.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>good one Dot</strong></p><p>Wisconsin Electric is paying customers 23 cents per kwh for their solar power here. &nbsp;11 cents retail plus 12 cents in subsidy. &nbsp;</p><p>
Why can't the feds pay everyone 10 cents per kwh? &nbsp;Then the power company could pay you retail and you would get a check from the government for 10 cents extra, per kwh, every month.</p><p>
It would work very well. &nbsp;divert the money to pay for it from subsidies for the old failing energy economy. &nbsp;Coal, nuclear, oil, all the big pork industries. &nbsp;Oil gets 13 billion per year alone and a pass on 7 billion in oil lease fees from the Bushies.</p><p>
Agribizz subsidies are huge! &nbsp;It would be feasible to divert 50 billion per year.</p><p>
Germany is doing this to the extreme, this is a milder plan. &nbsp;more acceptable to US politics. &nbsp;A populist movement behind direct subsidies to homeowners and farmers to supply power should work. &nbsp;Farmers riding biogas powered tractors, shunning foreign oil. &nbsp;Thaty sort of image.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #10 by amazingdrx</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 10 May 2008 02:17:03 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/10</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>oh yeah</strong></p><p>The biggest source of immediate conservation savings! &nbsp;36% of GHG comes from building heating/cooling.</p><p>
Geo heat exchange heating/cooling is a well dospered and undrstood technology. &nbsp;it needs incentives to expand. &nbsp;Conservation subsidies.</p><p>
Every equivalent kwh of power saved with geo heat exchange should get a 10 cent government payment. &nbsp;The systems can be easily rated and monitered and subsidies dispensed based on power bills before the conversion.</p><p>
All that ultra expensive coal fired electricity going to air condition buildings, peak summer blackout type load. &nbsp;All that can be canceled with geo heat exchange. &nbsp;Cool ground heat transported by simple circulation pumps. &nbsp;A fraction of the energy of a window air conditioner.</p><p>
The same on the heating side. &nbsp;No combustion heating with a heat pump operatinmg from ground temperature. &nbsp;Very efficient heating.</p><p>
With solar electric and heat panels, cogeneration, powering the heating/cooling and storing the heat/cold for a 24 hour cycle in the building mass. &nbsp;That gives a smart grid system a huge storage component to control demand.</p><p>
This is the biggest, quickest savings area. &nbsp;With a huge economic stimulus in green jobs. &nbsp;Manufacturing, istallation, everything. &nbsp;Better giving the stimulus money out with clean energy checks. &nbsp;It would impell this whole boom. &nbsp;The checks help pay the monthly payment on the new energy saving equipment.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>oh yeah</strong></p><p>The biggest source of immediate conservation savings! &nbsp;36% of GHG comes from building heating/cooling.</p><p>
Geo heat exchange heating/cooling is a well dospered and undrstood technology. &nbsp;it needs incentives to expand. &nbsp;Conservation subsidies.</p><p>
Every equivalent kwh of power saved with geo heat exchange should get a 10 cent government payment. &nbsp;The systems can be easily rated and monitered and subsidies dispensed based on power bills before the conversion.</p><p>
All that ultra expensive coal fired electricity going to air condition buildings, peak summer blackout type load. &nbsp;All that can be canceled with geo heat exchange. &nbsp;Cool ground heat transported by simple circulation pumps. &nbsp;A fraction of the energy of a window air conditioner.</p><p>
The same on the heating side. &nbsp;No combustion heating with a heat pump operatinmg from ground temperature. &nbsp;Very efficient heating.</p><p>
With solar electric and heat panels, cogeneration, powering the heating/cooling and storing the heat/cold for a 24 hour cycle in the building mass. &nbsp;That gives a smart grid system a huge storage component to control demand.</p><p>
This is the biggest, quickest savings area. &nbsp;With a huge economic stimulus in green jobs. &nbsp;Manufacturing, istallation, everything. &nbsp;Better giving the stimulus money out with clean energy checks. &nbsp;It would impell this whole boom. &nbsp;The checks help pay the monthly payment on the new energy saving equipment.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #11 by Jon Rynn</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 10 May 2008 02:20:26 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/11</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>y'know, amazin'...</strong></p><p>...when you consider that most countries have nationalized their oil companies, and the US and Britain are about the only ones who haven't -- maybe all of our oil company profits are really subsidies? &nbsp;In other words, if we nationalized our oil companies, the government would get all the profits, and could funnel that into solar/wind/geothermal. &nbsp;whaddaya think?</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>y'know, amazin'...</strong></p><p>...when you consider that most countries have nationalized their oil companies, and the US and Britain are about the only ones who haven't -- maybe all of our oil company profits are really subsidies? &nbsp;In other words, if we nationalized our oil companies, the government would get all the profits, and could funnel that into solar/wind/geothermal. &nbsp;whaddaya think?</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #12 by amazingdrx</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 10 May 2008 06:13:07 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/12</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Hmmm</strong></p><p>It would be good Jon, but politically impossible.</p><p>
Thanks to Alito, Roberts, and Scalia. &nbsp;Corporate<br>
citizens have rights that supercede our rights.</p><p>
Direct incentives are far less socialist, especially if they involve diversion of present subsidies rather than new taxes.</p><p>
Give taxpayers back their own dollars to spend on renewable/conservation energy investment. &nbsp;spent according to actual kwh saved and GHG free generated, the decisions won't be skewed by lobbying or bureaucrats.</p><p>
oil companies do not need that 13 billion per year in government subsidy, renewable/conservation investors do. &nbsp;Help pay for my solar panels, exxonmob, thanks.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></br></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Hmmm</strong></p><p>It would be good Jon, but politically impossible.</p><p>
Thanks to Alito, Roberts, and Scalia. &nbsp;Corporate<br>
citizens have rights that supercede our rights.</p><p>
Direct incentives are far less socialist, especially if they involve diversion of present subsidies rather than new taxes.</p><p>
Give taxpayers back their own dollars to spend on renewable/conservation energy investment. &nbsp;spent according to actual kwh saved and GHG free generated, the decisions won't be skewed by lobbying or bureaucrats.</p><p>
oil companies do not need that 13 billion per year in government subsidy, renewable/conservation investors do. &nbsp;Help pay for my solar panels, exxonmob, thanks.

<p>http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog</p></br></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #13 by Sharon Astyk</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 01:38:13 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/13</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Time to tell the unfortunate truth<p>Jon, I think your essays are admirable, and <strong>maybe within the realm of very broad technical capacities in the time required.<p>
But here is the major difficulty - no program involving a massive build out thus far, that I am aware of, fully includes the energy and climate implications of that build out, while maintaining the larger economy in stable enough condition to meet urgently necessary short term climate requirements. &nbsp;I've written more about this, in response to one particular plan, and using only very rough back of the envelope calculations, but the larger principle applies.<p>
<a href="http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/29/the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-can-we-afford-a-build-out/" rel="nofollow">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/29/the-cure-is-worse-than- ...<p>
If Hansen is correct and we need to get back to 350 ppm (and there seem to be compelling reasons to believe this is true), then we have only a very, very short time indeed to make whatever alterations we can to industrial society. &nbsp;The kind of massive relocation of population, buildout and reinsulation of housing, etc... may simply be too carbon intensive. &nbsp;I'd need to see specific numbers. &nbsp;Some of what you imagine could be electrified, particularly mining, seems unlikely without a massive nuclear program.<p>
There's also the difficulty that all of these resources have lifespans - we're talking not just about doing a single build out that then gets us to a perfectly sustainable society, but about needing to maintain and replace and repair all of these things - and at the moment we don't make wind turbines or rigid foam insulation without oil and other fossil fuels.<p>
The truth is, I think we may have waited too long to have the choice of a benign form of industrial society - that's not to say that all industrialization must go, but I tend to think that the mythos that we can have an essentially familiar society is not only untrue, but a mistake - perhaps it will turn out to be possible, but isn't it more urgent to start preparing the populace for a harsher reality, just in case?

<p>Sharon, with dirt under her fingernails.</p></p></p></p></a></p></p></strong></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Time to tell the unfortunate truth<p>Jon, I think your essays are admirable, and <strong>maybe within the realm of very broad technical capacities in the time required.<p>
But here is the major difficulty - no program involving a massive build out thus far, that I am aware of, fully includes the energy and climate implications of that build out, while maintaining the larger economy in stable enough condition to meet urgently necessary short term climate requirements. &nbsp;I've written more about this, in response to one particular plan, and using only very rough back of the envelope calculations, but the larger principle applies.<p>
<a href="http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/29/the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-can-we-afford-a-build-out/" rel="nofollow">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/29/the-cure-is-worse-than- ...<p>
If Hansen is correct and we need to get back to 350 ppm (and there seem to be compelling reasons to believe this is true), then we have only a very, very short time indeed to make whatever alterations we can to industrial society. &nbsp;The kind of massive relocation of population, buildout and reinsulation of housing, etc... may simply be too carbon intensive. &nbsp;I'd need to see specific numbers. &nbsp;Some of what you imagine could be electrified, particularly mining, seems unlikely without a massive nuclear program.<p>
There's also the difficulty that all of these resources have lifespans - we're talking not just about doing a single build out that then gets us to a perfectly sustainable society, but about needing to maintain and replace and repair all of these things - and at the moment we don't make wind turbines or rigid foam insulation without oil and other fossil fuels.<p>
The truth is, I think we may have waited too long to have the choice of a benign form of industrial society - that's not to say that all industrialization must go, but I tend to think that the mythos that we can have an essentially familiar society is not only untrue, but a mistake - perhaps it will turn out to be possible, but isn't it more urgent to start preparing the populace for a harsher reality, just in case?

<p>Sharon, with dirt under her fingernails.</p></p></p></p></a></p></p></strong></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #14 by Colin Wright</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 05:22:26 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/14</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Who knows the unfortunate truth?</strong></p><p>Sharon, I liked your critique of Staniford -- $400 trillion of solar buildout at 1/2 lb carbon/$ is indeed a shitload of CO2. But I can't really see a $300 trillion economy by 2050. Infinite growth on a finite planet just won't happen.</p><p>
But the sorts of projects Jon proposes are much more modest, on the order of several trillions of dollars. He has another breakdown of oil use which shows oil for construction is only a few percent of our total use. So we could easily double and double again construction activity if we were prepared to transition away from the automobile. (And Hansen says we can use all the oil without endangering the planet -- if we phase out coal, plant a shitload of trees, etc.)</p><p>
So I think the opportunity is there to transition to a low-energy industrial civilization as long as we give up the idea of infinte economic growth. </p><p>
It's certainly good to prepare people for a low-energy future, a "harsher reality, just in case". (And I think that is the default position if we don't change our ways rationally.) But I think it's also true that the more low-impact technology we retain and build, the easier our lives will be in the future energy-constrained world.</p><p>
In any case, your idea that we need to think about the carbon footprints of building out renewables is a good one.</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Who knows the unfortunate truth?</strong></p><p>Sharon, I liked your critique of Staniford -- $400 trillion of solar buildout at 1/2 lb carbon/$ is indeed a shitload of CO2. But I can't really see a $300 trillion economy by 2050. Infinite growth on a finite planet just won't happen.</p><p>
But the sorts of projects Jon proposes are much more modest, on the order of several trillions of dollars. He has another breakdown of oil use which shows oil for construction is only a few percent of our total use. So we could easily double and double again construction activity if we were prepared to transition away from the automobile. (And Hansen says we can use all the oil without endangering the planet -- if we phase out coal, plant a shitload of trees, etc.)</p><p>
So I think the opportunity is there to transition to a low-energy industrial civilization as long as we give up the idea of infinte economic growth. </p><p>
It's certainly good to prepare people for a low-energy future, a "harsher reality, just in case". (And I think that is the default position if we don't change our ways rationally.) But I think it's also true that the more low-impact technology we retain and build, the easier our lives will be in the future energy-constrained world.</p><p>
In any case, your idea that we need to think about the carbon footprints of building out renewables is a good one.</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #15 by Jon Rynn</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 05:40:26 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/life-after-coal/15</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Sharon --</strong></p><p>Thanks for commenting on my idea, and Colin brought up much of what I wanted to say, so I'll elaborate on some points --</p><p>
I remember that you once asked the question about needing windmills to generate the electricity to build more windmills, which is a very important insight -- the industrial system is self-reproducing. &nbsp;Meadows et al were one of the few people, in "Limits to Growth", to show how this self-reproduction can get out of control. &nbsp;But it is also the key to industrial growth, and hopefully, post-carbon growth.</p><p>
I think it can be argued that the "true" energy basis of a civilization is electricity, and that oil was a terrible distraction, never was necessary, and now will require Herculean efforts to get out from under. &nbsp;But as I tried to show in those two articles I referenced in my previous comment, the guts of the industrial system, the factories themselves -- at least, the nonchemical, paper, and metallurgical ones -- use a pretty small amount of electricity, relatively.</p><p>
I think there is enough metal around in the world that we could always make enough machinery, such as windmills -- I'm assuming we could use the metal in cars, aircraft carriers, etc., if we had to, but even a certain amount of new steel in manageable. &nbsp;If all transportation was electric and used renewable sources, most of it from local renewable sources, again, I think this is doable.</p><p>
The big question starts to turn on the culture change, as you point out. &nbsp;Yes, it might look very different (I would hope that, for efficiency's sake, for instance, all firms would be worker-owned-and-controlled as well). &nbsp;We might be in towns and cities with no cars in the center -- j.h. crawford type cities -- with no planes flying overhead, etc. &nbsp;The overwhelming majority of people might be in apartments, not single family homes. &nbsp;As you have pointed out, upwards of one quarter of the population might be gardening and farming. Is this too huge of a culture change for all of the adults in this civilization? &nbsp;Children can adapt, I don't know how well adults do.</p><p>
What I'm attempting to put forward is envisioning a different kind of civilization, but one that is both industrial and sustainable. &nbsp;Might not work, but then again, it might.</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Sharon --</strong></p><p>Thanks for commenting on my idea, and Colin brought up much of what I wanted to say, so I'll elaborate on some points --</p><p>
I remember that you once asked the question about needing windmills to generate the electricity to build more windmills, which is a very important insight -- the industrial system is self-reproducing. &nbsp;Meadows et al were one of the few people, in "Limits to Growth", to show how this self-reproduction can get out of control. &nbsp;But it is also the key to industrial growth, and hopefully, post-carbon growth.</p><p>
I think it can be argued that the "true" energy basis of a civilization is electricity, and that oil was a terrible distraction, never was necessary, and now will require Herculean efforts to get out from under. &nbsp;But as I tried to show in those two articles I referenced in my previous comment, the guts of the industrial system, the factories themselves -- at least, the nonchemical, paper, and metallurgical ones -- use a pretty small amount of electricity, relatively.</p><p>
I think there is enough metal around in the world that we could always make enough machinery, such as windmills -- I'm assuming we could use the metal in cars, aircraft carriers, etc., if we had to, but even a certain amount of new steel in manageable. &nbsp;If all transportation was electric and used renewable sources, most of it from local renewable sources, again, I think this is doable.</p><p>
The big question starts to turn on the culture change, as you point out. &nbsp;Yes, it might look very different (I would hope that, for efficiency's sake, for instance, all firms would be worker-owned-and-controlled as well). &nbsp;We might be in towns and cities with no cars in the center -- j.h. crawford type cities -- with no planes flying overhead, etc. &nbsp;The overwhelming majority of people might be in apartments, not single family homes. &nbsp;As you have pointed out, upwards of one quarter of the population might be gardening and farming. Is this too huge of a culture change for all of the adults in this civilization? &nbsp;Children can adapt, I don't know how well adults do.</p><p>
What I'm attempting to put forward is envisioning a different kind of civilization, but one that is both industrial and sustainable. &nbsp;Might not work, but then again, it might.</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
 </channel>
</rss>