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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Author and physicist Richard A. Muller chats with Grist about getting science back in the White Hous]]></title>
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            <title>Comment #1 by Earl Killian</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 00:50:22 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/1</guid>
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				<p><strong>sad when a Professor peddles bad information<p>A. The affordable [factor]'s a big issue. The issue is, is clean coal more affordable than solar? Solar is pretty expensive too, and it's not clean either. You've got to build the cells -- that uses carbon dioxide.<p>
First, not all solar is PV, as in the answer given. &nbsp;Second, the lifecycle emissions of PV and Coal+CCS have both been estimated. &nbsp;One journal article estimates PV is 19-59 g CO2e/kWh, Coal+CCS is 255-442. &nbsp;That is an order of magnitude difference. &nbsp;You would think a Professor that has pretensions of advising Presidents would know this sort of thing before implying that these are on par because building PV produces CO2.<p>
Second, the California Public Utilities Commission asked E3 to study emissions and costs of new power generation for California. &nbsp;The levelized busbar cost per MWh were $89.10 for wind, $93.82 for Gas CCCT, $101.82 for Geothermal, $105.54 for Coal ST, $126.53 for Concentrated Solar Power, $153.16 for Nuclear, and $173.17 for Coal IGCC+CCS. &nbsp;In other words, Solar is cheaper than Coal+CCS. &nbsp;But you wouldn't know that from Professor Muller's answer.<p>
A. There's a future for car batteries, but that depends on the development of battery technology that is not in the marketplace yet.<p>
This is an improvement over the misinformation Professor Muller writes in his book, but it is still not accurate. &nbsp;First, in his book Professor Muller slams batteries for having low Wh/kg compared to gasoline, but practical electric cars were built six years and sold to the public using 1990s NiMH battery technology with 61 Wh/kg. &nbsp;Despite the low energy density, the 2002 Toyota RAV4-EV had 4.9 times the energy efficiency of the gasoline version (2002 RAV4 2WD Automatic). &nbsp;The Lithium-Ion batteries for electric cars in the marketplace today are twice to three times that Wh/kg. &nbsp;These batteries have lifetimes that in many cases are so long that the issue becomes will we have to invent ways to move them from our old vehicles to our new ones.<p>
A. The whole idea of "drill, baby, drill" is not that you would actually get huge amounts of fossil fuel that way, but that you get enough so that we're no longer at capacity -- some excess capacity and the oil prices will drop. And I think that's probably true.<p>
How does Professor Muller's opinion compare to the <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html" rel="nofollow">estimates of the US DOE EIA? &nbsp;They write,<br>
The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher--2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.<p>
It seems to me that Professor Muller is giving a political answer, not a scientific one.<p>
A. Hansen I've known for many years. He's a very good climate scientist, but he's decided to do the politics. I feel that he's doing some cherry-picking of his own [when it comes to the science].<p>
Professor Muller does plenty of cherry-picking in his book. &nbsp;Having read both Muller's and Hansen's work, I would say that Hansen's is a lot more professional.<p>
You can find more detail on Professor Muller's cherry-picking at <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/131736/938" rel="nofollow">http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/131736/938 and <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/133219/223" rel="nofollow">http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/133219/223<br>
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				<p><strong>sad when a Professor peddles bad information<p>A. The affordable [factor]'s a big issue. The issue is, is clean coal more affordable than solar? Solar is pretty expensive too, and it's not clean either. You've got to build the cells -- that uses carbon dioxide.<p>
First, not all solar is PV, as in the answer given. &nbsp;Second, the lifecycle emissions of PV and Coal+CCS have both been estimated. &nbsp;One journal article estimates PV is 19-59 g CO2e/kWh, Coal+CCS is 255-442. &nbsp;That is an order of magnitude difference. &nbsp;You would think a Professor that has pretensions of advising Presidents would know this sort of thing before implying that these are on par because building PV produces CO2.<p>
Second, the California Public Utilities Commission asked E3 to study emissions and costs of new power generation for California. &nbsp;The levelized busbar cost per MWh were $89.10 for wind, $93.82 for Gas CCCT, $101.82 for Geothermal, $105.54 for Coal ST, $126.53 for Concentrated Solar Power, $153.16 for Nuclear, and $173.17 for Coal IGCC+CCS. &nbsp;In other words, Solar is cheaper than Coal+CCS. &nbsp;But you wouldn't know that from Professor Muller's answer.<p>
A. There's a future for car batteries, but that depends on the development of battery technology that is not in the marketplace yet.<p>
This is an improvement over the misinformation Professor Muller writes in his book, but it is still not accurate. &nbsp;First, in his book Professor Muller slams batteries for having low Wh/kg compared to gasoline, but practical electric cars were built six years and sold to the public using 1990s NiMH battery technology with 61 Wh/kg. &nbsp;Despite the low energy density, the 2002 Toyota RAV4-EV had 4.9 times the energy efficiency of the gasoline version (2002 RAV4 2WD Automatic). &nbsp;The Lithium-Ion batteries for electric cars in the marketplace today are twice to three times that Wh/kg. &nbsp;These batteries have lifetimes that in many cases are so long that the issue becomes will we have to invent ways to move them from our old vehicles to our new ones.<p>
A. The whole idea of "drill, baby, drill" is not that you would actually get huge amounts of fossil fuel that way, but that you get enough so that we're no longer at capacity -- some excess capacity and the oil prices will drop. And I think that's probably true.<p>
How does Professor Muller's opinion compare to the <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html" rel="nofollow">estimates of the US DOE EIA? &nbsp;They write,<br>
The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher--2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.<p>
It seems to me that Professor Muller is giving a political answer, not a scientific one.<p>
A. Hansen I've known for many years. He's a very good climate scientist, but he's decided to do the politics. I feel that he's doing some cherry-picking of his own [when it comes to the science].<p>
Professor Muller does plenty of cherry-picking in his book. &nbsp;Having read both Muller's and Hansen's work, I would say that Hansen's is a lot more professional.<p>
You can find more detail on Professor Muller's cherry-picking at <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/131736/938" rel="nofollow">http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/131736/938 and <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/133219/223" rel="nofollow">http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/15/133219/223<br>
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            <title>Comment #2 by mihan</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:30:46 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/2</guid>
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				<p><strong>Holly,</strong></p><p>Occasionally, physicists are female. Usually, these physicists do not have 'staches.</p>
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				<p><strong>Holly,</strong></p><p>Occasionally, physicists are female. Usually, these physicists do not have 'staches.</p>
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            <title>Comment #3 by jeffgreen11</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:42:41 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/3</guid>
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				<p><strong>This guy is slightly out of touch</strong></p><p>(The affordable [factor]'s a big issue. The issue is, is clean coal more affordable than solar? Solar is pretty expensive too, and it's not clean either. You've got to build the cells -- that uses carbon dioxide. I think we need everything. We need a rainbow of different technologies: conservation, solar, wind, better transmission, clean coal, nuclear, better automobiles.)</p><p>
I disagree with Dr Mueller's conslusion about solar. Once solar is large enough it can manufacture off its own energy.</p><p>
(There's a future for car batteries, but that depends on the development of battery technology that is not in the marketplace yet.)</p><p>
This guy must be living under a rock. Toyota Prius has proven itself with the battery technology.</p><p>
(if you oppose nuclear power, the U.S. will become much more heavily dependent on fossil fuels,)</p><p>
How about a little foresight here. Many phd's have come up with plans to run the country with solar and wind.</p><p>
Interesting that he is a proponent of nuclear. Solar electricity is on same par of cost as nuclear. I find this guy out of touch with the main stream of renewable energy.<br>
</br></p>
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				<p><strong>This guy is slightly out of touch</strong></p><p>(The affordable [factor]'s a big issue. The issue is, is clean coal more affordable than solar? Solar is pretty expensive too, and it's not clean either. You've got to build the cells -- that uses carbon dioxide. I think we need everything. We need a rainbow of different technologies: conservation, solar, wind, better transmission, clean coal, nuclear, better automobiles.)</p><p>
I disagree with Dr Mueller's conslusion about solar. Once solar is large enough it can manufacture off its own energy.</p><p>
(There's a future for car batteries, but that depends on the development of battery technology that is not in the marketplace yet.)</p><p>
This guy must be living under a rock. Toyota Prius has proven itself with the battery technology.</p><p>
(if you oppose nuclear power, the U.S. will become much more heavily dependent on fossil fuels,)</p><p>
How about a little foresight here. Many phd's have come up with plans to run the country with solar and wind.</p><p>
Interesting that he is a proponent of nuclear. Solar electricity is on same par of cost as nuclear. I find this guy out of touch with the main stream of renewable energy.<br>
</br></p>
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            <title>Comment #4 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:11:07 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/4</guid>
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				<p><strong>Bending the truth...</strong></p><p>Muller is not much better than Hansen because he has the same problem with the truth that Hansen does. &nbsp;</p><p>
Why not simply tell the truth as it is instead of accepting people like Gore and Hansen lying so that they can advance some good intentions? &nbsp;How many people will we let die of malaria before we admit that getting rid of DDT spaying inside African residences as a horrible idea? &nbsp;How many people will we try to condemn to poverty because we are pushing the false idea that CO2 emissions are driving global temperatures? &nbsp;When will we admit that we have not seen any warming in the past decade and that the imagined trend ended when the PDO flipped into its negative phase and solar activity diminished after hundreds of years of increases that brought it to a millennial high? &nbsp;Shouldn't rational people start to look at things as they are instead of theories that imagine a world that diverges from observed reality? </p>
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				<p><strong>Bending the truth...</strong></p><p>Muller is not much better than Hansen because he has the same problem with the truth that Hansen does. &nbsp;</p><p>
Why not simply tell the truth as it is instead of accepting people like Gore and Hansen lying so that they can advance some good intentions? &nbsp;How many people will we let die of malaria before we admit that getting rid of DDT spaying inside African residences as a horrible idea? &nbsp;How many people will we try to condemn to poverty because we are pushing the false idea that CO2 emissions are driving global temperatures? &nbsp;When will we admit that we have not seen any warming in the past decade and that the imagined trend ended when the PDO flipped into its negative phase and solar activity diminished after hundreds of years of increases that brought it to a millennial high? &nbsp;Shouldn't rational people start to look at things as they are instead of theories that imagine a world that diverges from observed reality? </p>
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            <title>Comment #5 by In the belly</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:27:37 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/5</guid>
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				<p><strong>another Muller mistatement<p>Wind turbine installed capacity is exploding in <a href="http://www.enn.com/energy/article/29391" rel="nofollow">China (if only they could get them hooked up to the grid!).<p>
Apparently it is cheap enough for China.<p>
With someone like Muller advising the next president we'll continue to be in the same boat we are now--watching other countries manufacture and export renewable technologies to us.<p>
And I will second the praise of Jim Hansen. &nbsp;I actually just saw him speak today at the Geological Society of America Joint Meeting. &nbsp;The case for 350ppm as the target for "safe" atmospheric CO2 concentration and the need to build no more non-CCS coal plants was compelling, and built on clear scientific evidence. &nbsp;For Muller--shilling his book purporting to advocate to the next president--to belittle someone for being an advocate looks like petty jealousy to me.</p></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>another Muller mistatement<p>Wind turbine installed capacity is exploding in <a href="http://www.enn.com/energy/article/29391" rel="nofollow">China (if only they could get them hooked up to the grid!).<p>
Apparently it is cheap enough for China.<p>
With someone like Muller advising the next president we'll continue to be in the same boat we are now--watching other countries manufacture and export renewable technologies to us.<p>
And I will second the praise of Jim Hansen. &nbsp;I actually just saw him speak today at the Geological Society of America Joint Meeting. &nbsp;The case for 350ppm as the target for "safe" atmospheric CO2 concentration and the need to build no more non-CCS coal plants was compelling, and built on clear scientific evidence. &nbsp;For Muller--shilling his book purporting to advocate to the next president--to belittle someone for being an advocate looks like petty jealousy to me.</p></p></p></a></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #6 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:52:42 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/6</guid>
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				<p><strong>The problem with solar...</strong></p><p>Unless you live under a rock you have to know that solar energy is still way too expensive and is unlikely to make economic sense for at least another decade. &nbsp;That is simply not the case with nuclear, which is very safe and very cheap. &nbsp;What we need is for governments to get out of the way and to let people who want to make a few bucks invest their own capital into solutions. &nbsp;If that happens we will get a combination of alternative sources that will help us solve the crisis that will come in a post peak oil world. &nbsp;</p>
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				<p><strong>The problem with solar...</strong></p><p>Unless you live under a rock you have to know that solar energy is still way too expensive and is unlikely to make economic sense for at least another decade. &nbsp;That is simply not the case with nuclear, which is very safe and very cheap. &nbsp;What we need is for governments to get out of the way and to let people who want to make a few bucks invest their own capital into solutions. &nbsp;If that happens we will get a combination of alternative sources that will help us solve the crisis that will come in a post peak oil world. &nbsp;</p>
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            <title>Comment #7 by In the belly</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:57:45 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/7</guid>
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				<p><strong>Jim Hansen on Target Atmospheric CO2<p>James Hansen's October 7 2008 talk at the GSA Joint Meeting can be found <a href="http://75.148.35.9/Mediasite/Viewer/Viewers/Viewer320BR.aspx?mode=Default&amp;peid=bc73e8a2-7209-4af4-a3f2-cfcb39ceaf75&amp;pid=2d008c04-e2fa-4cfd-9c7c-02c39a2d8502&amp;playerType=WM7" rel="nofollow">here.<p>
Warning: deniers may find it long and full of actual science.</p></a></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Jim Hansen on Target Atmospheric CO2<p>James Hansen's October 7 2008 talk at the GSA Joint Meeting can be found <a href="http://75.148.35.9/Mediasite/Viewer/Viewers/Viewer320BR.aspx?mode=Default&amp;peid=bc73e8a2-7209-4af4-a3f2-cfcb39ceaf75&amp;pid=2d008c04-e2fa-4cfd-9c7c-02c39a2d8502&amp;playerType=WM7" rel="nofollow">here.<p>
Warning: deniers may find it long and full of actual science.</p></a></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #8 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 10:44:36 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/8</guid>
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				<p><strong>Hansen...</strong></p><p>Actually, Hansen seems to have a big problem with the truth and has to resort to cherry picking. &nbsp;</p><p>
A perfect example are the graph that show CO2 concentrations and temperature. &nbsp;They actually show that temperature leads CO2 levels and as such CO2 can't be the cause of temperature trends. &nbsp;</p><p>
Another example is the whole forcing issue. &nbsp;This is important because most scientists, including the alarmists, agree that the direct warming from CO2 would be between 0.3 and 1.0 degrees Celsius for a doubling in the CO2 levels. &nbsp;(The extremists' case comes from the climate sensitivity.)</p><p>
If the CO2 warming was the only factor we would expect that man induces warming would top out at less than 1C, which is what we have seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. &nbsp;Hansen does not and cannot claim that such warming could justify the measures that he and his political master are calling for so he argues that the earth's climate is dominated by positive feedbacks. </p><p>
The problem for Hansen and company is that direct observations do not support the claims of positive feedbacks. &nbsp;We have about a century of measurements for CO2 and temperature that do not support any claim for high positive feedbacks. &nbsp;In fact, the implication is no feedback that can be attributed to CO2 increases.</p><p>
And Hansen still has trouble explaining why we have not had any warming in ten years even though CO2 levels have increased or why we should believe climate models that cannot make adequate use of such things as changes in cloud cover or can't predict changes ten years out. &nbsp;</p><p>
You can dance and posture all that you want but the science is certainly against man made warming due to CO2 emissions. &nbsp;</p>
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				<p><strong>Hansen...</strong></p><p>Actually, Hansen seems to have a big problem with the truth and has to resort to cherry picking. &nbsp;</p><p>
A perfect example are the graph that show CO2 concentrations and temperature. &nbsp;They actually show that temperature leads CO2 levels and as such CO2 can't be the cause of temperature trends. &nbsp;</p><p>
Another example is the whole forcing issue. &nbsp;This is important because most scientists, including the alarmists, agree that the direct warming from CO2 would be between 0.3 and 1.0 degrees Celsius for a doubling in the CO2 levels. &nbsp;(The extremists' case comes from the climate sensitivity.)</p><p>
If the CO2 warming was the only factor we would expect that man induces warming would top out at less than 1C, which is what we have seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. &nbsp;Hansen does not and cannot claim that such warming could justify the measures that he and his political master are calling for so he argues that the earth's climate is dominated by positive feedbacks. </p><p>
The problem for Hansen and company is that direct observations do not support the claims of positive feedbacks. &nbsp;We have about a century of measurements for CO2 and temperature that do not support any claim for high positive feedbacks. &nbsp;In fact, the implication is no feedback that can be attributed to CO2 increases.</p><p>
And Hansen still has trouble explaining why we have not had any warming in ten years even though CO2 levels have increased or why we should believe climate models that cannot make adequate use of such things as changes in cloud cover or can't predict changes ten years out. &nbsp;</p><p>
You can dance and posture all that you want but the science is certainly against man made warming due to CO2 emissions. &nbsp;</p>
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            <title>Comment #9 by saluki</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:03:32 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/9</guid>
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				<p><strong>Hansen's folly<p>"The problem for Hansen and company is that direct observations do not support the claims of positive feedbacks."<p>
To get those feedbacks Hansen requires that the extra heat produced by CO2 forcing put more moisture in the air and that the extra moisture then gives us more greenhouse effect. &nbsp;But the problem is that there is no evidence that moisture in the air is increasing. &nbsp;If anything it seems to be decreasing.<p>
"And Hansen still has trouble explaining why we have not had any warming in ten years"<p>
This is not a problem for Hansen. &nbsp;He simply "adjusts" his GISS temp record so that he does get warming, and he ignores the fact that he is rapidly diverging from the other major global temperature records like HadCrut3, RSS, and UAH.<p>
Here:<br>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/05/divergence-of-giss-data.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/05/divergence- ...<p>
And here is a more recent plot of the past 11 years, but excluding Hansen's fraudulent record.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-temperature-anomoly.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-tem ...<p>
And here is one with a linear regression trend line drawn through the solar cycles for the last 100 years.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/07/20th-century-sunspot-trend.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/07/20th-centur ...<p>
Then, of course we have Hansen testifying to legislators about 25 meters of sea level rise. &nbsp;But the University of Colorado only shows a trend that would give us 13 inches in the next 100 years. &nbsp;The IPCC only predicts 19 inches in the next 100 years. &nbsp;And even these may turn out to be garbage, since there has been zero sea level rise in the last 3 years.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/university-of-colorado-global-sea-level.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/university- ...</a></p></p></a></p></p></a></p></p></a></br></p></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Hansen's folly<p>"The problem for Hansen and company is that direct observations do not support the claims of positive feedbacks."<p>
To get those feedbacks Hansen requires that the extra heat produced by CO2 forcing put more moisture in the air and that the extra moisture then gives us more greenhouse effect. &nbsp;But the problem is that there is no evidence that moisture in the air is increasing. &nbsp;If anything it seems to be decreasing.<p>
"And Hansen still has trouble explaining why we have not had any warming in ten years"<p>
This is not a problem for Hansen. &nbsp;He simply "adjusts" his GISS temp record so that he does get warming, and he ignores the fact that he is rapidly diverging from the other major global temperature records like HadCrut3, RSS, and UAH.<p>
Here:<br>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/05/divergence-of-giss-data.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/05/divergence- ...<p>
And here is a more recent plot of the past 11 years, but excluding Hansen's fraudulent record.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-temperature-anomoly.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-tem ...<p>
And here is one with a linear regression trend line drawn through the solar cycles for the last 100 years.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/07/20th-century-sunspot-trend.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/07/20th-centur ...<p>
Then, of course we have Hansen testifying to legislators about 25 meters of sea level rise. &nbsp;But the University of Colorado only shows a trend that would give us 13 inches in the next 100 years. &nbsp;The IPCC only predicts 19 inches in the next 100 years. &nbsp;And even these may turn out to be garbage, since there has been zero sea level rise in the last 3 years.<p>
<a href="http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/university-of-colorado-global-sea-level.html" rel="nofollow">http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/university- ...</a></p></p></a></p></p></a></p></p></a></br></p></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #10 by Earl Killian</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:44:12 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p><strong>The problem with solar...</strong></p><p>solar energy is still way too expensive and is unlikely to make economic sense for at least another decade</p><p>
Your comment suggests you are lumping the hundreds of kinds of solar together. &nbsp;There is PV, at least 4 kinds of CSP, many sorts of CPV, CSP+TES, and so on. &nbsp;Some are quite cost-effective, and certainly less expensive than nuclear. &nbsp;Get out and look at the facts on Stirling Energy Systems, Ausra, BrightSource, SkyFuel, Sungri, CoolEarthSolar, etc. etc. etc.</p><p>
How many people will we try to condemn to poverty because we are pushing the false idea that CO2 emissions are driving global temperatures?</p><p>
Oh, now I see you're just a run-of-the-mill denier. &nbsp;No wonder you have trouble with facts.<br>
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				<p><strong>The problem with solar...</strong></p><p>solar energy is still way too expensive and is unlikely to make economic sense for at least another decade</p><p>
Your comment suggests you are lumping the hundreds of kinds of solar together. &nbsp;There is PV, at least 4 kinds of CSP, many sorts of CPV, CSP+TES, and so on. &nbsp;Some are quite cost-effective, and certainly less expensive than nuclear. &nbsp;Get out and look at the facts on Stirling Energy Systems, Ausra, BrightSource, SkyFuel, Sungri, CoolEarthSolar, etc. etc. etc.</p><p>
How many people will we try to condemn to poverty because we are pushing the false idea that CO2 emissions are driving global temperatures?</p><p>
Oh, now I see you're just a run-of-the-mill denier. &nbsp;No wonder you have trouble with facts.<br>
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            <title>Comment #11 by Earl Killian</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:49:22 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/11</guid>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags<p>They actually show that temperature leads CO2 levels and as such CO2 can't be the cause of temperature trends.<br>
You are missing the simple and important notion of positive feedback. You presume that the mechanism is one or the other rather than both. In the paleoclimate record it is clear that greenhouse gases can drive temperature (e.g. this is a leading hypothesis for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum), and it is likewise fairly clear that temperature can drive CO2. This bidirectional effect is the result of positive feedback: temperature affects CO2, and CO2 affects temperature with the net result that a small change in either results in a larger total change (an amplification).<p>
See <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm for more information.<p>
The rest of your comment is outright false.</p></a></p></br></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags<p>They actually show that temperature leads CO2 levels and as such CO2 can't be the cause of temperature trends.<br>
You are missing the simple and important notion of positive feedback. You presume that the mechanism is one or the other rather than both. In the paleoclimate record it is clear that greenhouse gases can drive temperature (e.g. this is a leading hypothesis for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum), and it is likewise fairly clear that temperature can drive CO2. This bidirectional effect is the result of positive feedback: temperature affects CO2, and CO2 affects temperature with the net result that a small change in either results in a larger total change (an amplification).<p>
See <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm for more information.<p>
The rest of your comment is outright false.</p></a></p></br></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #12 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:20:32 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/12</guid>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags</strong></p><p>Sorry but when you get a lag of 800 years or so it is hard to argue that the effect is the cause. &nbsp;The bottom line is that we already have a century of observations regarding CO2 and temperature and there is no evidence of any positive feedbacks due to CO2. &nbsp;It is also clear that the factor that is mostly correlated to temperature over the last century is the phase of the AMO. &nbsp;We did have a strong cooling trend from 1945 to 1975 when the PDO was in its cool phase and scientists were talking about the next ice age. &nbsp;When it went positive they started to talk about warming. &nbsp;</p><p>
Sorry but the real science is against the AGW position and no amount of scrambling will overcome the lack of credibility of the, 'man is responsible for warming,' crowd. &nbsp;As I pointed out above, that has now changed into 'man is responsible for climate change.' </p>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags</strong></p><p>Sorry but when you get a lag of 800 years or so it is hard to argue that the effect is the cause. &nbsp;The bottom line is that we already have a century of observations regarding CO2 and temperature and there is no evidence of any positive feedbacks due to CO2. &nbsp;It is also clear that the factor that is mostly correlated to temperature over the last century is the phase of the AMO. &nbsp;We did have a strong cooling trend from 1945 to 1975 when the PDO was in its cool phase and scientists were talking about the next ice age. &nbsp;When it went positive they started to talk about warming. &nbsp;</p><p>
Sorry but the real science is against the AGW position and no amount of scrambling will overcome the lack of credibility of the, 'man is responsible for warming,' crowd. &nbsp;As I pointed out above, that has now changed into 'man is responsible for climate change.' </p>
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            <title>Comment #13 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:21:35 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/13</guid>
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				<p><strong>OOPS..</strong></p><p>I meant to write PDO, not the AMO in the posting above.</p>
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				<p><strong>OOPS..</strong></p><p>I meant to write PDO, not the AMO in the posting above.</p>
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            <title>Comment #14 by Earl Killian</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2008 01:11:20 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/14</guid>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags</strong></p><p>You're completely missing the point.</p>
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				<p><strong>CO2 leads and lags</strong></p><p>You're completely missing the point.</p>
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            <title>Comment #15 by VangelV</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2008 22:54:59 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/lets-get-physical/15</guid>
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				<p><strong>Missing the point...</strong></p><p>No. &nbsp;The point is clear. &nbsp;When the temperature trend change leads the change in CO2 concentrations you can't make the claim that CO2 is responsible for past changes in temperatures as Gore and Hansen have. &nbsp;Please note that we have dropped the term global warming for climate change. &nbsp;I guess that is what happens when the temperature trend has diverged from what the models have been predicting. </p>
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				<p><strong>Missing the point...</strong></p><p>No. &nbsp;The point is clear. &nbsp;When the temperature trend change leads the change in CO2 concentrations you can't make the claim that CO2 is responsible for past changes in temperatures as Gore and Hansen have. &nbsp;Please note that we have dropped the term global warming for climate change. &nbsp;I guess that is what happens when the temperature trend has diverged from what the models have been predicting. </p>
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