<![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for How high and how fast?]]> Grist Comment Feed en Comment #1 by Steve Bloom http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:15:47 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/1 A possibility of disaster

Stefan's analysis is actully quite conservative (as I think he would agree).  This statement (from two days ago) from leading glaciologists regarding the vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is a watershed.  The key point:

"Our understanding of ice-sheet flow suggests the possibility that too much melting beneath ice shelves will lead to 'runaway' thinning of the grounded ice sheet. Current understanding is too limited to know whether, when, or how rapidly this might happen, but discussions at the meeting included the possibility of several feet of sea-level rise over a few centuries from changes in this region."

While stronger than any similar past "consensus" statement from glaciologists, that phrasing is still rather elliptical in that discussion at the meeting probably included much more extreme scenarios than several feet over a few centuries.  Note, BTW, that the first signer (Richard Alley) on that statement is the very same IPCC lead author who just a couple of months ago was reticent (see Hansen's quote of him) about saying any such thing (in an IPCC context, anyway).  

Reading Hansen's piece very slightly between the lines, I think he believes that the possibility of a WAIS collapse occurring in a matter of decades cannot be excluded, and if so even he's being "reticent."  I suspect many of the glaciologists believe that to be the case as well.  I think we can expect to see the NAS panel called for by Hansen created very soon, so hopefully at the conclusion of that process (by next year) the glaciologists will be willing to say what needs to be said.

(Just a quick note for those who don't follow this stuff closely:  The WAIS is the only one of the three major ice sheets that is both grounded below sea level and substantially open to the sea.  If all of the WAIS ice floats off the bottom, the result would be about 20 feet of sea level rise.  Note that the ice doesn't need to actually melt for this to happen.)

]]> A possibility of disaster

Stefan's analysis is actully quite conservative (as I think he would agree).  This statement (from two days ago) from leading glaciologists regarding the vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is a watershed.  The key point:

"Our understanding of ice-sheet flow suggests the possibility that too much melting beneath ice shelves will lead to 'runaway' thinning of the grounded ice sheet. Current understanding is too limited to know whether, when, or how rapidly this might happen, but discussions at the meeting included the possibility of several feet of sea-level rise over a few centuries from changes in this region."

While stronger than any similar past "consensus" statement from glaciologists, that phrasing is still rather elliptical in that discussion at the meeting probably included much more extreme scenarios than several feet over a few centuries.  Note, BTW, that the first signer (Richard Alley) on that statement is the very same IPCC lead author who just a couple of months ago was reticent (see Hansen's quote of him) about saying any such thing (in an IPCC context, anyway).  

Reading Hansen's piece very slightly between the lines, I think he believes that the possibility of a WAIS collapse occurring in a matter of decades cannot be excluded, and if so even he's being "reticent."  I suspect many of the glaciologists believe that to be the case as well.  I think we can expect to see the NAS panel called for by Hansen created very soon, so hopefully at the conclusion of that process (by next year) the glaciologists will be willing to say what needs to be said.

(Just a quick note for those who don't follow this stuff closely:  The WAIS is the only one of the three major ice sheets that is both grounded below sea level and substantially open to the sea.  If all of the WAIS ice floats off the bottom, the result would be about 20 feet of sea level rise.  Note that the ice doesn't need to actually melt for this to happen.)

]]> Comment #2 by tico89 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Fri, 30 Mar 2007 13:38:08 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/2 It would be nice...

...if the IPCC had been more clear on its predictions for sea level rise, seeing as generally deniers pick up on this as the fundamental flaw in the GW argument, and go on about how 'alarmists' are upset that the IPCC report wasn't 'catastrophic' enough.

]]> It would be nice...

...if the IPCC had been more clear on its predictions for sea level rise, seeing as generally deniers pick up on this as the fundamental flaw in the GW argument, and go on about how 'alarmists' are upset that the IPCC report wasn't 'catastrophic' enough.

]]> Comment #3 by caniscandida http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Fri, 30 Mar 2007 20:45:42 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/3 "adaptation"

That is an interesting, and needless to say, troubling suggestion, that the rate of sea-level rise will be so much greater than the policy-makers anticipated, and so will make "adaptation" a "meaningless term."

One can imagine a scenario in which much expense is laid out for decent, reasonable adaptationist efforts in the next few decades, but then toward the end of the century, even all that impressive work is overwhelmed and rendered obsolete.

Chickens are our cousins! So are other sensitive animals! Enough is enough! No more factory farms!

]]> "adaptation"

That is an interesting, and needless to say, troubling suggestion, that the rate of sea-level rise will be so much greater than the policy-makers anticipated, and so will make "adaptation" a "meaningless term."

One can imagine a scenario in which much expense is laid out for decent, reasonable adaptationist efforts in the next few decades, but then toward the end of the century, even all that impressive work is overwhelmed and rendered obsolete.

Chickens are our cousins! So are other sensitive animals! Enough is enough! No more factory farms!

]]> Comment #4 by Delay And Deny http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Sat, 31 Mar 2007 03:31:59 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/4 Offshore Property


If people were smart they'd start buying up flood plains and offshore property -- maybe even as deep as 12 meters below sea level.

Once the permafrost melts, more water will be absorbed by the ground and there will be more water vapour in the atmosphere.

Therefore the sea levels will fall precipitously.

The Texeme Construct offers international text memetics construction and textcasting services. http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com


]]> Offshore Property


If people were smart they'd start buying up flood plains and offshore property -- maybe even as deep as 12 meters below sea level.

Once the permafrost melts, more water will be absorbed by the ground and there will be more water vapour in the atmosphere.

Therefore the sea levels will fall precipitously.

The Texeme Construct offers international text memetics construction and textcasting services. http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com


]]> Comment #5 by Zarkov http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Sat, 31 Mar 2007 19:32:20 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/5 Peace

The problem is not a precipitous raising of the sea level, this will not occur because the melted ice weight lifted of the Earth will allow global expansion to generally account for the small amount of fresh water inflow into the sea.

However a fresh water crisis is rapidly unfolding, especially in agriculture and in drinking water.

The rise of the thirst level will shock everyone.

And even before you know it your fresh water stocks will become toxic algal soups.

You will not win unless you clean up your act and get the facts straight.  Y'all are being lied to deceived and wasted..... by bastard psychopaths... and you are all too apathetic (they have poisoned you) to complain or even to think of your children.

It all in the book, out soon
omegafour.com

]]> Peace

The problem is not a precipitous raising of the sea level, this will not occur because the melted ice weight lifted of the Earth will allow global expansion to generally account for the small amount of fresh water inflow into the sea.

However a fresh water crisis is rapidly unfolding, especially in agriculture and in drinking water.

The rise of the thirst level will shock everyone.

And even before you know it your fresh water stocks will become toxic algal soups.

You will not win unless you clean up your act and get the facts straight.  Y'all are being lied to deceived and wasted..... by bastard psychopaths... and you are all too apathetic (they have poisoned you) to complain or even to think of your children.

It all in the book, out soon
omegafour.com

]]> Comment #6 by Delay And Deny http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Sat, 31 Mar 2007 21:31:04 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/6 Fresh Water

Fresh water will be more abundant because higher temperatures will keep more water as vapor and there will be more frequent and wide spread rain, that will help desert lands start to bloom.

The sea will recede (a) because of more absorption and, yes, I think you are right (b) possible expansion of the earth's crust.  We have recently discovered a vast "underground sea" beneath China...clearly water can exist not only on the surface, but inside the Earth as well.   This capacity would increase during a time of global warming.

City planners are wasting too much time on "ice packs".   We don't need ice packs if there is sufficient year round fresh rainfall to fill our reservoirs.   Plus, I think the water quality will be much better.

The Texeme Construct offers international text memetics construction and textcasting services. http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com

]]> Fresh Water

Fresh water will be more abundant because higher temperatures will keep more water as vapor and there will be more frequent and wide spread rain, that will help desert lands start to bloom.

The sea will recede (a) because of more absorption and, yes, I think you are right (b) possible expansion of the earth's crust.  We have recently discovered a vast "underground sea" beneath China...clearly water can exist not only on the surface, but inside the Earth as well.   This capacity would increase during a time of global warming.

City planners are wasting too much time on "ice packs".   We don't need ice packs if there is sufficient year round fresh rainfall to fill our reservoirs.   Plus, I think the water quality will be much better.

The Texeme Construct offers international text memetics construction and textcasting services. http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com

]]> Comment #7 by amazingdrx http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/ Sun, 01 Apr 2007 01:10:01 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/inundated-with-information-on-sea-level-rise/7 Exponential

"ice sheet dynamics are clearly non-linear"

Ice melts at an exponentially increasing rate.  Nice to see one scientist finally noticed that!  Now maybe Hansen could calculate how that affects methane emissions from melting permafrost and methan hydrate ice in the sea bed.  Since methane is 20 times more disastrous as a GHG than CO2.

When will he be fired by a 23 year old bushwacker political appointee from a fundamentalist university?

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]> Exponential

"ice sheet dynamics are clearly non-linear"

Ice melts at an exponentially increasing rate.  Nice to see one scientist finally noticed that!  Now maybe Hansen could calculate how that affects methane emissions from melting permafrost and methan hydrate ice in the sea bed.  Since methane is 20 times more disastrous as a GHG than CO2.

When will he be fired by a 23 year old bushwacker political appointee from a fundamentalist university?

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

]]>