I believe California has reduced consumption year-over-year.  If so, we can point to both higher than typical US prices as a factor, and also California programs benefiting hybrids, etc.

The gas price and income thing is tricky because while there are general patterns for energy use at various income levels (the famous "quintiles"), they aren't that straightforward.  People with higher income generally drive more miles, but factors like "do you have teenage children" often weigh more.

FWIW, I believe in tipping points, and while I only make fuzzy uncertain predictions ... I think it's possible that we'll see one.

It was after all a tipping point that produced the rapid change in energy use patterns at the end of the 70's and the early 80's.  It was not simply an extrapolation of what came before.

... I always think there's something faintly absurd about waiting for gas prices to do all the work for us. It's just one lever for change, and not a very good one. As Clark keeps saying, gas prices can only change behavior if there's room for behavior to change. In today's U.S. cities, there just isn't a ton of wiggle room. Most people cannot cut their driving back substantially, at least not without drastic (and backlash-producing) inconvenience.

Infrastructure changes produce behavior changes -- nothing mysterious about it.

grist.org

that gas prices are so insanely low that saying that gas price increases are going to limit driving is like saying that if Salma Hayek puts on 10 lbs no one will want to sleep with her.

I watched "Crude Awakening" last night, and it makes the point yet again that you better not expect too much from gas prices while they are still so laughably low.  Starbucks Coffee was cited as $50 per gallon.  Sugar water sodas fly out of the vending machines at the YMCA at more than $7.50 per gallon.

Matt Simmons put it this way:  For about 20 cents, you can a cup of gas in the tank of the average US car, five or six people in the seats, a whole bunch of stuff in the trunk, and then go about a mile and a half in a couple of minutes.  That's how cheap $3.20 gas is.

In years past, I used to be surprised at how many pennies got left on the ground; now I'm finding more nickels, dimes, and even quarters when I'm out walking.  People are simply not bothering to look very hard for change they drop--apparently it's not worth it.  Yesterday I found a quarter.   Somebody who probably complains about gas being high priced didn't think that taking the time to find a quarter in the middle of a sidewalk was worth it.  

"An optimist is someone who thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist is someone who is afraid that the optimist is right."

The mainstream acceptance of global warming may be part of any tipping point.

We have to wait and see of course.  It would be stupid to count these eggs as all chickens, or as no chickens.

But certainly, it is willfully blind to say a "first in 26 years" (the USA Today story) is nothing at all.

Most cities in the U.S. were built under the assumption that everyone had a car.  As a result, they are fundamentally unlivable if you don't drive.  As a result, people will not respond strongly to price pressure.  The way that price pressure helps, is in spurring innovation.

Yes, but much of those spurred innovation dollars/focus is being deflected by biofuels and hydrogen cars.

When what we really need are more energy effecient cars.
In particular, electric cars.
Even more specific, extended range electric vehicles.  EREVs :P

In addition to overcoming infrastructure barriers to reduced driving -- suburban sprawl where busses don't go, etc. -- we must overcome the mind set that walking, biking, and busses are for those from the "lower" rungs of society.

My friend is rehabing an older home in a city neighborhood -- an experiment in urban sustainability complete with a grape arbor, apple tree, vegie garden, and solar panels.  He can walk or bike just about anywhere.  But the city busses run mostly empty.  And people are embarrassed to walk or wait at the bus stop because its assumed they do so because of a failing on their part -- they lack the wherewithall to have even a clunker car.

Our cars are more than just transportation or even status symbol.  They represent some basic level of adult independence and ability to function within society.

We must adjust our mindset in addition to creating the infrastructure.  Prices alone won't change minds.

"We must be the change we wish to see in the world." -- Mahatma Ghandi

Greetings all,
 RE: GAS PRICES and GAS USAGE. I for one,am not as concerned about what the PRICE of gas is, as much as I am about how I can use the least of it,and,CERTAINLY, FROM WHO I BUY IT!(That is how I get the most from MY DOLLAR AND MY CHOICE of whos pocket it ends up in!If people are not wanting to support EXXONS PROFITS,then buy your gas from ANYONE ELSE FOR ABOUT A MONTH and see just how quickly THEY suffer at the pump!I HAVEN'T PATRONIZED THEM AT ALL since they left alaska such a disaster while spouting a "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED"STATEMENT!I guarantee you that corporate would be alot more attentive than if they "SUFFERED" a ONE DAY LOL,BOYCOTT of their product!Are you KIDDING? That just Postpones their greed for ONE DAY!BIG DEAL!I for one have even paid a little extra per gallon at any other station (my so called, self imposed, "Conscience Tax",just to AVOID giving THEM MY MONEY!
On another note,I have stopped supporting paying ridiculously high prices for processed foods and GAINED,the cost savings of driving 22 miles roundtrip to my "local" supermarket,(also known as The dead food mortuary).I have instead opted for eating as many locally produced organically grown foods as possible,and buying BULK (UNPACKAGED )whole foods at my LOCAL coop, thereby eating the best food I can get(bought at slightly higher prices for organic foods (with my gas savings money!!),thereby eating healthier while(reducing ,At least,My contribution to pollution from packaging,processing,crop chemicalization,genetic modification,irradiation, cargo shipping,domestic trucking and not at the least, I am contributing to the the SUPPORT of MY NEIGHBORS who are kind enough to grow it for us!(support YOUR local CSA)Nuff said!SUPPORT your "CONVICTIONS with yourWALLET!, not lip service,and stop the folks you DON'T SUPPORT in their tracks.Peace to all from tweenthetrees

John

Our cars are more than just transportation or even status symbol.  They represent some basic level of adult independence and ability to function within society.

Brilliant.  Only someone in touch with real reality can inform the conversation like this.

It puts me in mind of another observation.  Was it here?  Not sure. It was to the effect that, riding the bus is the ultimate embarrassment to inner city dwellers.  It infers a total lacking in the rider, a dependence.  It is the exact opposite of sticking out your thumb for a ride.

A sign that you are not needed or wanted, but rather a burden to civilization.  To a mighty empire of power that runs on greed, gunpowder, blood, and oil.  The only way out?  Become cannon fodder and take your chances.  "Be all you can be?"

"We must be the change we wish to see in the world." -- Mahatma Ghandi

That statement bears repitition.  Over and over and over in a zen chant by our whole movement to save the living planet.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

When I was living in the US, I generally didn't have a lot of leeway to decide not to drive.  There are some places which you simply cannot reach without a car.  
Even though I consider the environment very important, I found not having a car for the last two years I was living in DC very frustrating.  It was frustrating to not be able to go to some places (like stores where things were cheap) or know that it would take me 4 times as long to get there.  I was living 30 minutes by car from my Mom, but getting to her house to visit on the weekend took 2.5 hours, involving a 20 min walk to the metro, a 20 min wait, switching trains, taking a bus, another bus, and walking for a mile at the end.  
Right now I am living in Israel.  One thing I've noticed here is that public transportation really doesn't carry a class stigma.  Everyone rides the bus.  People also make an economic calculation about what makes more sense--driving or bus.  In our small town, everyone also hitchhikes, or gives rides.  To be fair, there is a major public transport issue here, there are no buses or trains during shabbat, from Friday afternoon/night to Saturday night, leaving people who don't observe the sabbath (like me a nonJew) in the lurch re. transport, or with no alternative but driving.  
But it will be hard to go back to the US, particularly if we end up in suburbia.  I hate even thinking about commuting as a driver.  But I don't expect to have a lot of choice.  If we live in the suburbs, most likely I will have to drive every day.  If we can manage to live in a city, I hope to avoid that.  

 Vehicles turn over after five years.  High gas prices will have a five year lag time on consumption.  The effects we see today are from gas going up during the 2005 hurricanes, not current pricing.
There is a similar theoretical 15-year lag in home placement.  It will take 15 to see an effect on where people live now to moving closer to the city.
 Gas price increase affects the poor first.

Most Americans fuel by putting an atm or credit card in the pump, not by emptying out their wallet of all their spending cash.  This cushions the effect as the fuel expenses get lumped with groceries, movies, vacations, clothing and everything else we buy on credit.

So the credit card is high this month  $4000 rather than the usual $3600 or so...oh yeah, we went to that bed a breakfast.  Or it must be the new TV and eating out a bit more.  

Only in the longterm will people notice that its a bit harder to pay the bills.  Most Americans don't understand their finances and have no idea how to place a value on the hours they work and how to best spend the fruits of their labors to get the best value and most enjoyment/security from their earnings.

Gas will need to hit at least $5 per gallon before folks really change their ways.

Cheers, Gary Gifford

Rune, I was just pointing out (using messy non-economic language) that times change.

In today's post you agree that "short term price elasticity (-0.2) was much closer to what was measured during the post-oil shock 1970s (-0.21 to -0.34) than what we have seen in the first few years of the new millennium (-0.034 to -0.077)."

Now I'm sure you don't believe that the elasticity we have seen "in the first few years of the new millennium" is not fixed, and unchanging.

When I talk about tipping points, I am thinking about social and economic changes that would affect quantity demanded, and make for change.  To a gnome in a room with only a "elasticity calculator" it would appear as an elasticity change.  And sure it might include the sort of social, political, and economic changes we saw with Carter & etc. in the 70s.