I'm saddened that there aren't more homes trying to become at least somewhat heat efficient...  It's not that expensive to get double pane windows, or put in a lighter color roof the next time that it has to be redone anyway.  Without efficiency of that kind, every time it gets hotter the electricity use will shoot up as well, as people try to keep impossibly heat-leaky homes cool.

Since the transportation fleet has a five year turn-over.  It takes some time for high gasoline prices to take hold.  

With electricity I predict larger increases in per capita consumption as large plasma screen televisions replace more energy efficient CRT's.  Also more computers per capita will drive power consumption up.

There are some nice LCD TVs out there with energy star ratings.  I try to suggest them as plasma alternatives.

I think the authoritative Hirsch report prepared for the US DOE on the prospects for oil availability and prices said that it would take something like 17 years for the fleet to fully incorporate new mileage levels.  And that's probably optimistic if gas prices hurt the economy significantly, because the old beater you have is still lots cheaper than the new, high-MPG car that's in great demand ...

Where does the 5-year turnover figure come from?

Save the world: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 5% annually.

It's complicated.  The fleet "turns over" to some extent, but actually the "retirement rate" (around 4.5%) is lower than the purchase rate.  The fleet grows.  But it is also true that the newest cars ard driven the most, and the oldest sit more.

It's true that cars last longer now.

It's true that turnover can accelerate as fuel prices increase.  If I recall correctly, the retirement rate went above 10% in the 70s/80s.

So, it's a fuzzy area for projection, and probably a bad idea to say that a rate "is" in the sense that "it will continue to be."

I'd expect changes, especially if we make the global warming and resource issues sell ;-)

when you consider how many citizens have no idea about how to open and close shades and windows in response to what happens outdoors.

It works like this, and it don't cost a dime:

In the summer, close windows and shades in the morning, prior to the onset of solar heating. In the evening, as outdoor temperatures wane, open shades and windows to allow cool air in. Rinse, repeat.

In the winter, do the opposite, except just with the shades.

Whoa, dude. That's so cool.

It is hard to pin a number on fleet average turnover, trying to apply statistics to a persons decision to buy a new car has uncounted variables.

The best methodology to use for fleet average turnover is fleet half-life, it is probably as good a mathematical model as any.   The trick is to try and guess the impact of external factors such as a doubling of gas prices.  The five year half life (which I called turnover before) is from the oil industry and is based on gasoline price spike response.  Historically the half life has been 8 years.

If we can get everyone into a 150 mpg plugin-hybrid like the Chevy Volt -- Hooty The Owl will be whistling Dixie.

Who are you? And what have you done with jabaillo?

Clark, you plagarized Scorecard. You cut-and-pasted their entire account into your post, without quote marks and without giving them credit.

Do you think this is moral?

Correct me if I'm wrong, or have missed something, but why is cutting gas consumption by nearly a tenth...equivalent to each driver taking a one-month holiday from driving each year. With twelve months in a year, shouldn't it be a twelfth?

If I share initials with 'Global Warming', is that a sign?

d41295, if you're going to pollute Gristmill with your toxic comments, at least do a little research. Simply clicking on Clark's user profile reveals that he works for Sightline, the publisher of Scorecard.

D41295: I assume you are accusing Clark of plagiarism (if so, at least get the spelling of the word right), a serious accusation that should not be thrown around lightly. Out of curiosity, I looked at the web site and the report and could not find any text identical to what Clark posted. But I admit mine was only a cursory comparison.

In any case, Clark provides a link to the original site, and he makes it very clear that he is reporting on the work that the Sightline Institute has done, not claiming it as his own.

Further, newspapers take press releases verbatim and report them as articles (without quotation marks) all the time, and nobody accuses them of plagiarism.

Thanks, Chris. I missed your comment while I was posting mine.

And everybody, really, for your mental health, ignore the Man of Destiny.

grist.org

I don't care if Clark wrote most of Scorecard -- he does not own it. He signed his labor over to his master, and as such he must quote and attribute them correctly. Else it is plagarism.

As I said:

Clark provides a link to the original site, and he makes it very clear that he is reporting on the work that the Sightline Institute has done, not claiming it as his own.

And nobody yet on this string has provided any comparisons of text to back up their accusations of plagiarism, even self-plagiarism.

... are frequently reprinted on Gristmill, by agreement of all the concerned parties.

What I want to know, Ron, is why you're engaging these clowns as though they are not clowns.

grist.org

"Don't feed the trolls."

But I try to ignore WHO is saying things and respond instead to WHAT they are saying. Plagiarism is a very serious charge, especially levied at a research director.

Thanks for setting the record straight.