Interesting piece.

So now we must invest in agriculture in the South.

If we do, we can double agricultural production in a few years time.

Ultimately, we can grow food for 40 billion people (according to the world's leading agronomist, Prof Rabbinge).

But we won't need that much.

We need food for 9 billion people (we are now producing food for 12 billion people).

So in order to account for losses and wasteful lifestyles, my guesstimate is that we need to produce an equivalent of food for 16 billion people by 2050.

That should be a piece of cake, given the fact that we have the carrying capacity to produce food for 40 billion.

A category 3 cyclone slammed into Myanmar (Burma) and totally wiped out their rice crop planted in January. They are in very serious trouble. Such extreme weather events will continue around the world, global warming or not. Farming is one of the worst gambles a person can make (outside the US, over half the farmers are actually women).

I can say that the area we know as "tornado alley" in the US is really getting tore up right now. This is one of the highest seasons for recorded tornadoes on record, and as of this writing the destruction extends from Dallas to Cleveland, with tornado warnings near the Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas area.

The southern tier of states have begun to plant summer crops, although I am not sure about the northern ones such as Ohio, Iowa, and Illinois - I don't think they have a crop in now other than winter wheat. So far, the extreme damage seems to be a drought in Australia and some bad topical cyclones in the orient.  -sam

Onward through the fog

I am curious about your figures.

"we have the carrying capacity to produce food for 40 billion"

Although I do not have figures to disprove your theory, I am curious as to where you got these numbers. With record highs of starvation in the United States alone, not to mention the amount of world hunger outside the US, it seems absurd that this capacity is sitting idly by while the world starves. Also, the carrying capacity to produce for even 20 billion would be unsustainable for more than a couple years.

Also, I wanted to comment on the original blog and how we should be keeping our crops going to market rather than being used up in bio-fuels. Farmers are increasing their production of products used in bio-fuels; corn, wheat, and soybeans, yet limiting those going to market. Thus, prices on consumer foods are at a record high. The price of corn has tripled in the last three years. With over 2/3 of the population living on less than a dollar a day, the price of these staple goods will mean the difference between starving or surviving to more than 2/3 of the population.

Much is made about the U.S. corn crop (a vast monoculture in and of the U.S. landscape - most of it genetically modified), as the be all and end all of food security.  The U.S. actually overproduces corn.  In fact, the country produces so much that it was ADM (price fixer to the world) and their biotechnology whizzes who created High Fructose Corn Syrup to help mitigate the mountains of corn.

A bad corn crop spells trouble - if your food security rests in processed or fast foods.  Just about all contain a percentage of corn (from low amounts in fries - unless fried in ... corn oil of all things ... to moderate amounts in so-called chicken nuggets, to almost all in soft drinks and shakes).  Just listen to Michael Pollan talk about the "Cornification of America", and how corn DNA can be found in our hair.  According to him, people on fast food diets almost amount to corn walking on legs.

Commodification, Futures and Corporate Greed:  These are the reasons for hunger and rising prices.

Security is an illusion, it does not exist in nature... Life is either a daring adventure ... or nothing! Helen Keller