<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
<channel>
	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for &#8216;Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster&#8217;&#8212;Not really, but this may be lesser of two evils]]></title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.grist.org/rss/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<description>Grist Comment Feed</description>
	<language>en</language>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #1 by Nucbuddy</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jan 2007 06:08:24 -0800</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/1</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Low-energy-use societies vs nature's tests<p>Coby Beck wrote:I challenge anyone to conclusively demonstrate that such catastrophes as listed above await us if we try to reduce fossil fuel use.<p>
Limiting growth in energy use lowers the extinction-event survival-potential of the human species.<br>
<a href="http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga" rel="nofollow">personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga<br>
</br></a></br></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Low-energy-use societies vs nature's tests<p>Coby Beck wrote:I challenge anyone to conclusively demonstrate that such catastrophes as listed above await us if we try to reduce fossil fuel use.<p>
Limiting growth in energy use lowers the extinction-event survival-potential of the human species.<br>
<a href="http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga" rel="nofollow">personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga<br>
</br></a></br></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #2 by Palaces</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jan 2007 20:20:59 -0800</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/2</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>The Math of Replacing Carbon With PV in 10-Years<p>The financial cost of electricity can be figured out. American homes use 24 kWhs a day on average, more in the South, less in the Northeast. Say a dime a kWh, over the 25 year warranty of PV panels is:<p>
$0.10 x 24 x 365 x 25 = $21,900. That's the cost of doing nothing, business as usual. It also assumes no inflation or price increases for 25 years.<p>
The cost of PV is currently price-fixed by a global cartel, and the market is rigged. Every so often somebody writes a book about it, and we have a 30 year track record of those books and magazines reports. A few examples from the past decades:<p>
<a href="http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBetrayed" rel="nofollow">http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBet...<br>
<a href="http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbonWar" rel="nofollow">http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbon...<br>
<a href="http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+Solar+Patents" rel="nofollow">http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+So...<p>
Rationally, the cost of PV is somewhat the same as the cost of beer cans and beer bottles, as they are made from the same starting raw materials and go through equally complex industrial machines and processes. Picture beer cans and bottles melted down to a puddle the thickness of a business card. How much materials is that?<p>
Generously, with a fat profit margin built in, that solidified puddle one foot square should cost no more than 30 cents installed on the rooftop and making 12 watts of electricity each bright sunny hour.<p>
That is of course not today's price. Chevron execs bragged that they made retail-ready PV for $1/watt several years ago. That would make that square foot of PV $12 at their manufacturing costs. The difference between $12 and $0.30 is 40 multiples of 30 cents.<p>
There's a transitionary time between $1/watt and 30 cents a dozen. Stern intolerance of delays by corporations who have already delayed it for 30 years will shorten that transition time. The public must inform itself on how PV is made sufficiently to be able to make it if the corporations will not.<p>
It seems terribly bold, but a PV casting furnace is the heart of PV. Seven wheelbarrows of sand processed yesterday becomes four wheelbarrows of sand then becomes 2 wheelbarrows of polycrystal PV cast ingots (12 cubic feet) in one 24 hour day in one furnace. The technology uses three expired-patent public domain processes.<p>
<a href="http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Bulk_Sand" rel="nofollow">http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Bulk_Sand</a></p></p></p></p></p></p></a></br></a></br></a></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>The Math of Replacing Carbon With PV in 10-Years<p>The financial cost of electricity can be figured out. American homes use 24 kWhs a day on average, more in the South, less in the Northeast. Say a dime a kWh, over the 25 year warranty of PV panels is:<p>
$0.10 x 24 x 365 x 25 = $21,900. That's the cost of doing nothing, business as usual. It also assumes no inflation or price increases for 25 years.<p>
The cost of PV is currently price-fixed by a global cartel, and the market is rigged. Every so often somebody writes a book about it, and we have a 30 year track record of those books and magazines reports. A few examples from the past decades:<p>
<a href="http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBetrayed" rel="nofollow">http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBet...<br>
<a href="http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbonWar" rel="nofollow">http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbon...<br>
<a href="http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+Solar+Patents" rel="nofollow">http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+So...<p>
Rationally, the cost of PV is somewhat the same as the cost of beer cans and beer bottles, as they are made from the same starting raw materials and go through equally complex industrial machines and processes. Picture beer cans and bottles melted down to a puddle the thickness of a business card. How much materials is that?<p>
Generously, with a fat profit margin built in, that solidified puddle one foot square should cost no more than 30 cents installed on the rooftop and making 12 watts of electricity each bright sunny hour.<p>
That is of course not today's price. Chevron execs bragged that they made retail-ready PV for $1/watt several years ago. That would make that square foot of PV $12 at their manufacturing costs. The difference between $12 and $0.30 is 40 multiples of 30 cents.<p>
There's a transitionary time between $1/watt and 30 cents a dozen. Stern intolerance of delays by corporations who have already delayed it for 30 years will shorten that transition time. The public must inform itself on how PV is made sufficiently to be able to make it if the corporations will not.<p>
It seems terribly bold, but a PV casting furnace is the heart of PV. Seven wheelbarrows of sand processed yesterday becomes four wheelbarrows of sand then becomes 2 wheelbarrows of polycrystal PV cast ingots (12 cubic feet) in one 24 hour day in one furnace. The technology uses three expired-patent public domain processes.<p>
<a href="http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Bulk_Sand" rel="nofollow">http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Bulk_Sand</a></p></p></p></p></p></p></a></br></a></br></a></p></p></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #3 by Fixsen</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jan 2008 11:14:29 -0800</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/3</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Math of PV cells</strong></p><p>Wow, is this guy optimistic! First, his comment that a PV cell is no more complicated than a beer can suggests that a computer is no more complicated than a block of plastic. In fact the price ratio is about a factor of 1000. The PV cell is probably close to as cheap as it's going to get.</p><p>
Second, he ignores the interest on the PV cell which must be paid while the PV cell is cranking out the electricity. This will tend to double the effective price of the PV cell. </p><p>
Third, he ignores the price of installation. &nbsp;Suppose that the PV cells are free (Slightly less optimistic than Grist). Assume that the PV cells are twice as expensive as shingles to install (about 3K$ per roof). So 6K$ per roof will cost ~600$/yr interest. So this eats up most of the price of electricity.</p><p>
Fourth, &nbsp;he is overly optimistic on how much electricity one can get. If the PV cells are optimally placed, with no clouds, you get 25% (i.. 6 hours per day); with clouds and random placement, 7% is more likely, or about 1.7 hours not 5.5. This, of course, multiplies all of the costs, so the cost of installation is too high.</p><p>
Fifth, he ignores the chemicals needed to process the PV cells. If we get the cells down to 1 mm thick, &nbsp;that's about 1000 lbs. per house, x 100,000,000 or 50 MT of cells. That probably is at least 100 MT of chemicals....</p><p>
Sixth, he ignores the problem of storing that electricity. For a small fraction (maybe 20%) of the electricity, that is not a big problem in that the use of electricity is higher during the day, and also higher in the summer (air conditioning), but PV for all electricity is MUCH harder.</p><p>
Dale Fixsen</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Math of PV cells</strong></p><p>Wow, is this guy optimistic! First, his comment that a PV cell is no more complicated than a beer can suggests that a computer is no more complicated than a block of plastic. In fact the price ratio is about a factor of 1000. The PV cell is probably close to as cheap as it's going to get.</p><p>
Second, he ignores the interest on the PV cell which must be paid while the PV cell is cranking out the electricity. This will tend to double the effective price of the PV cell. </p><p>
Third, he ignores the price of installation. &nbsp;Suppose that the PV cells are free (Slightly less optimistic than Grist). Assume that the PV cells are twice as expensive as shingles to install (about 3K$ per roof). So 6K$ per roof will cost ~600$/yr interest. So this eats up most of the price of electricity.</p><p>
Fourth, &nbsp;he is overly optimistic on how much electricity one can get. If the PV cells are optimally placed, with no clouds, you get 25% (i.. 6 hours per day); with clouds and random placement, 7% is more likely, or about 1.7 hours not 5.5. This, of course, multiplies all of the costs, so the cost of installation is too high.</p><p>
Fifth, he ignores the chemicals needed to process the PV cells. If we get the cells down to 1 mm thick, &nbsp;that's about 1000 lbs. per house, x 100,000,000 or 50 MT of cells. That probably is at least 100 MT of chemicals....</p><p>
Sixth, he ignores the problem of storing that electricity. For a small fraction (maybe 20%) of the electricity, that is not a big problem in that the use of electricity is higher during the day, and also higher in the summer (air conditioning), but PV for all electricity is MUCH harder.</p><p>
Dale Fixsen</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #4 by Cacaoatl</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:30:39 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/4</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Some Values Can't Be Measured In Economic Terms</strong></p><p>There are just some values that can't be measured in economic or financial terms. &nbsp;Theodore Roosevelt realized this when he created the National Park System, co-founded the American Bison Society, urged Congress to create the Forest Service, created the first National Bird Preserve (precursor of the National Wild Life Refuge), and stopped industrial concerns from using Niagra Falls to generate power for factories. </p><p>
He believed that human beings could use natural resources with an eye to the future. He believed that it was possible to have a high standard of living without using up all our resources and destroying the wilderness in the process. </p><p>
Stopping global warming may be economically difficult but in the end will have greater benefits &nbsp;for our species and the planet than any temporary hardships that may arise from switching to more sustainable sources of energy and wiser use of our resources. Denying global warming is nothing more than rationalization of selfishness. Our generation doesn't own this planet, we're just borrowing it from the next one.</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Some Values Can't Be Measured In Economic Terms</strong></p><p>There are just some values that can't be measured in economic or financial terms. &nbsp;Theodore Roosevelt realized this when he created the National Park System, co-founded the American Bison Society, urged Congress to create the Forest Service, created the first National Bird Preserve (precursor of the National Wild Life Refuge), and stopped industrial concerns from using Niagra Falls to generate power for factories. </p><p>
He believed that human beings could use natural resources with an eye to the future. He believed that it was possible to have a high standard of living without using up all our resources and destroying the wilderness in the process. </p><p>
Stopping global warming may be economically difficult but in the end will have greater benefits &nbsp;for our species and the planet than any temporary hardships that may arise from switching to more sustainable sources of energy and wiser use of our resources. Denying global warming is nothing more than rationalization of selfishness. Our generation doesn't own this planet, we're just borrowing it from the next one.</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #5 by brownbat</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:26:31 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/5</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>If climate mitigation was unnecessary...</strong></p><p>"...even if it turned out that climate mitigation was unnecessary, we would still be in a better place as a global society by making the coming switch sooner rather than later."</p><p>
That's not necessarily true, it depends on the costs of energy sources and the time value of money.</p><p>
Might be true, just ain't necessarily so, depends on the numbers.</p><p>
Might be oil saves you a dollar today, but switching to solar today saves you a dollar tomorrow. If climate mitigation was unnecessary, then save the dollar today, even if just to put it in the bank for a year and give the interest to your favorite charity.</p><p>
Course, might be that oil saves you a dollar today, but solar saves you ten dollars next week. The ten dollars is almost certainly a better deal.</p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>If climate mitigation was unnecessary...</strong></p><p>"...even if it turned out that climate mitigation was unnecessary, we would still be in a better place as a global society by making the coming switch sooner rather than later."</p><p>
That's not necessarily true, it depends on the costs of energy sources and the time value of money.</p><p>
Might be true, just ain't necessarily so, depends on the numbers.</p><p>
Might be oil saves you a dollar today, but switching to solar today saves you a dollar tomorrow. If climate mitigation was unnecessary, then save the dollar today, even if just to put it in the bank for a year and give the interest to your favorite charity.</p><p>
Course, might be that oil saves you a dollar today, but solar saves you ten dollars next week. The ten dollars is almost certainly a better deal.</p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
		<item>
            <title>Comment #6 by brownbat</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:58:53 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/climate-change-mitigation-would-lead-to-disaster/6</guid>
			<description><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Peak Oil<p>This is a bit off topic, but responds to something raised in the initial post, the idea that we are on the verge of running out of oil.<p>
Nobel winning economist Gary Becker is <a href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2008/05/the_rise_in_the.html" rel="nofollow">skeptical of Peak Oil. While consensus is mixed, other commentators have speculated a retreat in oil prices over the next few years.<p>
Just because a resource is non-renewable, it doesn't mean that a peak price situation is inevitable in the short term. Tungsten isn't renewable, and the world consumes tens of thousands of tons each year. It has unique properties in hardness at high temperatures, making substitutes far less viable than our current substitutes for oil (which are simply a little more expensive). All the same, I don't lose much sleep over peak tungsten.</p></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[
				<p><strong>Peak Oil<p>This is a bit off topic, but responds to something raised in the initial post, the idea that we are on the verge of running out of oil.<p>
Nobel winning economist Gary Becker is <a href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2008/05/the_rise_in_the.html" rel="nofollow">skeptical of Peak Oil. While consensus is mixed, other commentators have speculated a retreat in oil prices over the next few years.<p>
Just because a resource is non-renewable, it doesn't mean that a peak price situation is inevitable in the short term. Tungsten isn't renewable, and the world consumes tens of thousands of tons each year. It has unique properties in hardness at high temperatures, making substitutes far less viable than our current substitutes for oil (which are simply a little more expensive). All the same, I don't lose much sleep over peak tungsten.</p></a></p></p></strong></p>
			]]></content:encoded>
		</item>
    
 </channel>
</rss>