I hope David's right, and Judge Sessions does dispose of the Vermont lawsuit tomorrow.  I'm optimistic, but my optimism is tempered by a few things.

First, the preemption provision of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (which creates the CAFE program) only apply to the states.  While the Supreme Court's statement (quoted by David above) provides excellent ammunition for Vermont, it does not necessarily dispose of the issue altogether.

I'd be surprised if the Judge acts immediately.  Courts tend to like issues to be thoroughly briefed before they make up their minds.

Second, the automakers were very crafty when they filed separate lawsuits against California, Vermont, and Rhode Island.  Each of these states lies within a different court of appeals (the First, Second, and Ninth for those of you counting).  While a Pavley win in Vermont may create some legal momentum, each court will decide their cases for itself . . . and then, of course, there's three different appeals to deal with.

Having said that, I remain highly optimistic.  However, I expect it'll take a bit more time than David suggests.  

I know I sound like a downer - but that's what they teach you in law school.  I guess I learned my lessons well.

I would not expect the current administration to give any state a waiver for greenhouse gas regulations.

Cassandra plans to trade in her Prius Hybrid for a Prius lithium plug-in hybrid when available.  She predicts American car companies will go broke pushing ethanol and liquid coal automobiles.

The jackassery of this insane administration will be the coup de grâce for our brain-dead automobile manufacturing industry.

If the new rules aren't set to take effect until 2009, does it matter whether this administration grants a waiver prior to that date?  I assume CA EPA will spend the next year developing the necessary policy framework to be ready to roll out the minute a new, less jackassy president is sworn in.

Eriga, I think there is some importance of timing.  

If the Bush Administration refuses to act on California's waiver request, it may be difficult to convince the next administration (even if it's much more concerned about global warming), that it is reasonable to require the automobile industry to redesign vehicles by 2009.  Under the waiver provisions, EPA may have some ability to consider whether the California program gives manufacturers enough time before it comes into effect.  

California itself gave manufactures 7 years between the time that Pavley was enacted and the time it was to have legal consequences.  If the Feds don't consider ratifying it until 2008, the industry will forcefully argue that 1 year is simply not enough time.

That may not seem too convincing, after all, they've known about the law since 2002.  However, until EPA grants a waiver, the law doesn't have legal significance.

Sunflower sez:
Cassandra plans to trade in her Prius Hybrid for a Prius lithium plug-in hybrid when available.  She predicts American car companies will go broke pushing ethanol and liquid coal automobiles.

I think that what jabailo was talking about was converting an existing car to plug-in power.  It'll run you a few bucks (I've heard that it's about $2,000 per 100 miles of range), but it would pay itself off within a few years.  On the DVD of Who Killed the Electric Car?, they show a regular internal-combustion car being converted to all-electric.  It can be done, and without scrapping your faithful mechanical friend.  The manufacturers don't particularly like it when you do this, but I've never heard of them trying to do anything about it.  If I ran Toyota, I'd take the approach TiVo takes to product hacking:  "It'll void your warranty, but here's a cool website showing you how to do it."

The way I see it, ethanol, liquid coal, and hydrogen are just further methods of stalling.  While they pretend to work on making their phony sustainable fuels, we'll be pumping the world's wildlife refuges dry.  It's not "brain-dead" at all; it's very cleverly calculated to keep us on the hook for as long as possible.  That's why foreign car companies were the first to employ hybrid engines to create significant gains in efficiency.

Taking accounting to the extreme since 2004.