<![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Drought predicted to spread across Australia and the United States]]> Grist Comment Feed en Comment #1 by odograph http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 11:26:50 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/1 tool

I'm too lazy to run this myself, but apparently this global water tool is supposed to tell you about water scarcity in your region.

]]> tool

I'm too lazy to run this myself, but apparently this global water tool is supposed to tell you about water scarcity in your region.

]]> Comment #2 by Sam Wells http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 14:47:10 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/2 Please check you facts

Take a look at the 30-year climate averages for rainfall and the most recent one year of data - Australia could be considered to be getting wetter in places if you trust the facts and not some second hand information.  The central and south regions of Australia (except near Perth) were always a desert of less than 300 mm (12 inches) of rainfall.  The drought maps from Australia Meteorology show very SMALL cases of serious to severe drought today, using a 12-month average, certainly not a quarter of the continent. Coastal areas have been getting a nice 900-1200 mm of rain this year (35-47 inches).  Please check your facts before pulling the trigger, hombre.  

Onward through the fog

]]> Please check you facts

Take a look at the 30-year climate averages for rainfall and the most recent one year of data - Australia could be considered to be getting wetter in places if you trust the facts and not some second hand information.  The central and south regions of Australia (except near Perth) were always a desert of less than 300 mm (12 inches) of rainfall.  The drought maps from Australia Meteorology show very SMALL cases of serious to severe drought today, using a 12-month average, certainly not a quarter of the continent. Coastal areas have been getting a nice 900-1200 mm of rain this year (35-47 inches).  Please check your facts before pulling the trigger, hombre.  

Onward through the fog

]]> Comment #3 by Steve Bloom http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 15:36:55 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/3 Checking the Oz drought fact sources

Sam, the Australian newspaper story Joe quoted and this accompanying one seem to cover all the bases.  Are you aware of a problem with these?

Taking a few more minutes, I also checked to see if the Oz Bureau of Meteorology had something consistent with these stories, and they do.  In fact, from the dates it appears likely that this BOM statement led to the stories.    

]]> Checking the Oz drought fact sources

Sam, the Australian newspaper story Joe quoted and this accompanying one seem to cover all the bases.  Are you aware of a problem with these?

Taking a few more minutes, I also checked to see if the Oz Bureau of Meteorology had something consistent with these stories, and they do.  In fact, from the dates it appears likely that this BOM statement led to the stories.    

]]> Comment #4 by undyau http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 18:04:46 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/4 Agriculture and coal

Sam, have a look at this for my state (NSW): http://www.agric.nsw.gov.au/reader/drt-area-200708-large. ...

There have been some epic rainfalls on the coast in the last quarter, but this isn't where most of the farming is, its where the people live. These rains boosted the water supply to some of the major cities  , but have done little to relieve the drought inland.

Despite this, the state government has just approved two HUGE new coal mines. Whilst they talk about tackling climate change, their actions are a serious part of the problem.

undy

]]> Agriculture and coal

Sam, have a look at this for my state (NSW): http://www.agric.nsw.gov.au/reader/drt-area-200708-large. ...

There have been some epic rainfalls on the coast in the last quarter, but this isn't where most of the farming is, its where the people live. These rains boosted the water supply to some of the major cities  , but have done little to relieve the drought inland.

Despite this, the state government has just approved two HUGE new coal mines. Whilst they talk about tackling climate change, their actions are a serious part of the problem.

undy

]]> Comment #5 by caniscandida http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 19:20:42 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/5 "take one pill twice daily"

"One farmer kills himself every four days" is not well-worded, is it.  It sounds rather like a plot detail in the hypothetical cult-classic B-movie, "The Man Who Could Not Stay Dead."

Better would have been something like, "Every four days, another farmer kills himself."

Clearly there can be no more serious subject.  The BBC reporter should therefore have treated it with due respect, and taken greater care in expressing it.

Chickens are our cousins! So are other sensitive animals! Enough is enough! No more factory farms!

]]> "take one pill twice daily"

"One farmer kills himself every four days" is not well-worded, is it.  It sounds rather like a plot detail in the hypothetical cult-classic B-movie, "The Man Who Could Not Stay Dead."

Better would have been something like, "Every four days, another farmer kills himself."

Clearly there can be no more serious subject.  The BBC reporter should therefore have treated it with due respect, and taken greater care in expressing it.

Chickens are our cousins! So are other sensitive animals! Enough is enough! No more factory farms!

]]> Comment #6 by Pangolin http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Thu, 06 Sep 2007 19:30:53 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/6 No Pity for Oz

Chinese coal ships get loaded at Australian ports 24/7/365. The coal Australia exports is a specific cause of the haze that is clearing the arctic of ice. If they think that they can send the coal away and escape the climate consequences they are nuts.

The whole nation is joining the farmers in commiting suicide.

Put the Carbon Back

]]> No Pity for Oz

Chinese coal ships get loaded at Australian ports 24/7/365. The coal Australia exports is a specific cause of the haze that is clearing the arctic of ice. If they think that they can send the coal away and escape the climate consequences they are nuts.

The whole nation is joining the farmers in commiting suicide.

Put the Carbon Back

]]> Comment #7 by Delay And Deny http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Fri, 07 Sep 2007 02:02:35 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/7 Check Your Sources


You claim in this article that Australia's dry spell is the "worst in 1000 years".

That is backed up by a link to another article:

http://climateprogress.org/2006/12/19/australias-facing-w ...

Which says "Along with the United States, Australia has suffered a major drought this year, "the worst for 1000 years."

That is backed up by a link to another article, not from a scientific journal, but from a newspaper:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2& ...

which says "Australia is facing its worst drought in 1000 years.

The prediction, made at an emergency summit on Australia's mounting water crisis, is 10 times worse than earlier forecasts and prompted urgent action to secure drinking water supplies for Adelaide and rural towns."

So -- suddenly it's now a "Prediction" not a fact.

John Bailo
Sutext:


]]> Check Your Sources


You claim in this article that Australia's dry spell is the "worst in 1000 years".

That is backed up by a link to another article:

http://climateprogress.org/2006/12/19/australias-facing-w ...

Which says "Along with the United States, Australia has suffered a major drought this year, "the worst for 1000 years."

That is backed up by a link to another article, not from a scientific journal, but from a newspaper:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2& ...

which says "Australia is facing its worst drought in 1000 years.

The prediction, made at an emergency summit on Australia's mounting water crisis, is 10 times worse than earlier forecasts and prompted urgent action to secure drinking water supplies for Adelaide and rural towns."

So -- suddenly it's now a "Prediction" not a fact.

John Bailo
Sutext:


]]> Comment #8 by Sam Wells http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Fri, 07 Sep 2007 02:14:00 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/8 Crow eaten here ...

OK, I was looking at 30-year climactic averages and compared those rainfall maps and data points to the 12 month totals using BOM stuff.  Then I examined "extreme drought" maps prepared by the same agency for 2007.  It didn't appear too bad.  But as any farmer knows, too much or not enough rain at key times of the year can make for huge crop failures.  I missed that part ...

For example, here in Texas we generally have seen an extra 12 inches in rainfall over the last few months, which knocked the cotton crop down by 30-50%.  Many farmers went out of business as a result.  It all comes down to sol moisture - for the last two years before this wet cycle, there was absolutely no moisture in the top 16 inches of soil.  This caused more brackish water from pumps and the Rio Grande to be used, which caused poorer soil condition due to salting.  Glad I'm not a farmer.

Coal seems to be a different topic but before we jump on the Aussies for exporting coal, we need to look at what we're doing here in the US.  Ever seen Powder River coal mines from an airplane?  How about topped mountains in Appalachia?  Not only are our coaling operation massive, but we burn the stuff here, too.  /sammie

Onward through the fog

]]> Crow eaten here ...

OK, I was looking at 30-year climactic averages and compared those rainfall maps and data points to the 12 month totals using BOM stuff.  Then I examined "extreme drought" maps prepared by the same agency for 2007.  It didn't appear too bad.  But as any farmer knows, too much or not enough rain at key times of the year can make for huge crop failures.  I missed that part ...

For example, here in Texas we generally have seen an extra 12 inches in rainfall over the last few months, which knocked the cotton crop down by 30-50%.  Many farmers went out of business as a result.  It all comes down to sol moisture - for the last two years before this wet cycle, there was absolutely no moisture in the top 16 inches of soil.  This caused more brackish water from pumps and the Rio Grande to be used, which caused poorer soil condition due to salting.  Glad I'm not a farmer.

Coal seems to be a different topic but before we jump on the Aussies for exporting coal, we need to look at what we're doing here in the US.  Ever seen Powder River coal mines from an airplane?  How about topped mountains in Appalachia?  Not only are our coaling operation massive, but we burn the stuff here, too.  /sammie

Onward through the fog

]]> Comment #9 by Rebekka http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/ Sun, 09 Sep 2007 15:02:55 -0700 http://www.grist.org/article/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/9 Australia runs out of farmers

Last year we learned, "One farmer takes his life every four days."

And shortly after that we had a pertient reminder that statistics quoted in the media are often pulled out of the journalist's butt.

The statistic in question turned out to be (a) two decades old, (b) was every six days anyway, not every four, and (c) completely un-related to the current drought.

Although the current drought is very bad and clearly related to climate change, suicide patterns of farmers probably have more to do with a lack of social support in rural areas, particularly for men who are trying to fit into a socially acceptable role of tough Aussie bloke.

]]> Australia runs out of farmers

Last year we learned, "One farmer takes his life every four days."

And shortly after that we had a pertient reminder that statistics quoted in the media are often pulled out of the journalist's butt.

The statistic in question turned out to be (a) two decades old, (b) was every six days anyway, not every four, and (c) completely un-related to the current drought.

Although the current drought is very bad and clearly related to climate change, suicide patterns of farmers probably have more to do with a lack of social support in rural areas, particularly for men who are trying to fit into a socially acceptable role of tough Aussie bloke.

]]>