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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Major technological advances are necessary]]></title>
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            <title>Comment #1 by Steve Bloom</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 04:45:27 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/1</guid>
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				<p><strong>#11...</strong></p><p>...on that list of legislative priorities needs to be an immediate shift in prioritization of our national reserach establishment (which dwarfs that of the rest of the world) to developing these new technologies. &nbsp;I would actually slide this one into the #1 position.</p><p>
Also, Jason, I have to say it drives me nuts when economists blithely say things like "we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing technologies" when there is so much fruit hanging so low that it's already rotting on the ground.</p><p>
BTW, we should distinguish between real "new technologies" and those that simply require research into the best/cheapest way to make them available on a mass basis.<br>
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</br></p>
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				<p><strong>#11...</strong></p><p>...on that list of legislative priorities needs to be an immediate shift in prioritization of our national reserach establishment (which dwarfs that of the rest of the world) to developing these new technologies. &nbsp;I would actually slide this one into the #1 position.</p><p>
Also, Jason, I have to say it drives me nuts when economists blithely say things like "we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing technologies" when there is so much fruit hanging so low that it's already rotting on the ground.</p><p>
BTW, we should distinguish between real "new technologies" and those that simply require research into the best/cheapest way to make them available on a mass basis.<br>
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</br></p>
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            <title>Comment #2 by sunflower</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 05:19:51 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/2</guid>
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				<p><strong>Eyes closed tight, fists pounding on table...</strong></p><p>A failure of vision.<br>
Coal, as the report notes, is essential. It provides about 40 percent of global electricity. It's cheap (about a third of the cost of oil) and abundant. It poses no security threats.</p><p>
The world can use 40% less electricity via efficiency and conservation. &nbsp;Need more? &nbsp;Solar is about a third the cost of oil and abundant, globally. &nbsp;Solar poses no security threats. &nbsp;</p><p>
The threat of global destruction from fossil CO2 is definitely a most serious security threat. </p><p>
Expansion of solar can be much faster (and much cheaper) than expansion of coal, globally. </br></p>
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				<p><strong>Eyes closed tight, fists pounding on table...</strong></p><p>A failure of vision.<br>
Coal, as the report notes, is essential. It provides about 40 percent of global electricity. It's cheap (about a third of the cost of oil) and abundant. It poses no security threats.</p><p>
The world can use 40% less electricity via efficiency and conservation. &nbsp;Need more? &nbsp;Solar is about a third the cost of oil and abundant, globally. &nbsp;Solar poses no security threats. &nbsp;</p><p>
The threat of global destruction from fossil CO2 is definitely a most serious security threat. </p><p>
Expansion of solar can be much faster (and much cheaper) than expansion of coal, globally. </br></p>
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            <title>Comment #3 by JMG</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 06:03:48 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/3</guid>
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				<p><strong>So what's Plan B for when the magic technoship</strong></p><p>... doesn't come in? &nbsp; The laws of physics are not nearly as malleable as the "laws" of economics. &nbsp;Nature only takes one position, and does not compromise with fools who ignore the many warnings she has given.</p><p>
Let's revise your sermon today and see how you like it then:</p><p>
Put another way, given [climate disruption] projections, we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing [economic beliefs], as some [economists] claim; they are simply too expensive, and [ecological economics] is in its infancy. This poses serious challenges, since [economic doctrines], once they are established, can become locked-in and hard to alter. This is not meant as cause for despair, but as another reminder that addressing [overshoot] will require [rejection of infinite-growth fantasies], and hence sacrifice, at least in the short to medium term. Yes, new [economic understandings] will be developed, and yes there will be ancillary benefits, but the upfront costs will be far from trivial. The [economists] should begin to prepare the broader public for these costs so that they aren't surprised when [nature strikes back], prompting a backlash.</p>
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				<p><strong>So what's Plan B for when the magic technoship</strong></p><p>... doesn't come in? &nbsp; The laws of physics are not nearly as malleable as the "laws" of economics. &nbsp;Nature only takes one position, and does not compromise with fools who ignore the many warnings she has given.</p><p>
Let's revise your sermon today and see how you like it then:</p><p>
Put another way, given [climate disruption] projections, we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing [economic beliefs], as some [economists] claim; they are simply too expensive, and [ecological economics] is in its infancy. This poses serious challenges, since [economic doctrines], once they are established, can become locked-in and hard to alter. This is not meant as cause for despair, but as another reminder that addressing [overshoot] will require [rejection of infinite-growth fantasies], and hence sacrifice, at least in the short to medium term. Yes, new [economic understandings] will be developed, and yes there will be ancillary benefits, but the upfront costs will be far from trivial. The [economists] should begin to prepare the broader public for these costs so that they aren't surprised when [nature strikes back], prompting a backlash.</p>
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            <title>Comment #4 by A Siegel</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 06:05:12 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/4</guid>
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				<p><strong>Read Samuelson with great skepticism ...<p>He is, consistently, a skeptic in terms of arguing that 'we need research and development because today's technologies won't do much good ...'<p>
He doesn't address, anywhere, the impact that we could have by leapfrogging with renewable power, efficient use of energy, and smart growth in the developing world. &nbsp;<p>
You might be interested in <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/5/132135/3121" rel="nofollow">J'accuse! Distorting reality in "Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth" Robert J. Samuelson: &nbsp;J'accuse! &nbsp;You are using your pulpit to mislead and deceive. &nbsp;You seek to perpetuate the problem rather than solve it.<p>
Samuelson must watch Colbert, since he specializes in truthiness. Just as with all his other articles, today's piece is filled with facts and interesting points that might be true, but the totality of the discussion is not truthful. &nbsp;<p>
How about a truthiness example:<p>
 &nbsp;Consider a separate study by Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm. It simulated a fivefold increase in U.S. electricity from renewables by 2026. Despite that, more coal generating capacity would be needed to satisfy growth in demand. <br>
Wow ... let's cite a report that "simulated" a fivefold increase. Doesn't that sound like a lot? &nbsp;Doesn't that sound like this is a high-end estimate?<p>
Well, wind power is at 25+% growth rates, globally, for many years. And, there are wind turbine factories being built that would support increased growth. &nbsp;At 25%, this is a doubling in slightly less than every three years. In the US, wind is roughly 1% of wind power. &nbsp;If we were postulating a 10% average growth rate over the next 20 (or, 40% of the current), the wind production would be roughly 8 times current levels. &nbsp;<p>
Solar is increasing at 40% ... and shows signs of (seriously) accelerating, both with new PV options and concentrating solar power (CSP).<p>
Emerging are ocean power (wave, tidal, etc) systems.<p>
Geothermal looks like there might be real room for growth, especially if low-temperature geothermal emerges.<p>
It is saddening to see Grist giving Samuelson this level of credence without looking behind the wizard's curtain.<br>
</br></p></p></p></p></p></br></p></p></p></a></p></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Read Samuelson with great skepticism ...<p>He is, consistently, a skeptic in terms of arguing that 'we need research and development because today's technologies won't do much good ...'<p>
He doesn't address, anywhere, the impact that we could have by leapfrogging with renewable power, efficient use of energy, and smart growth in the developing world. &nbsp;<p>
You might be interested in <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/5/132135/3121" rel="nofollow">J'accuse! Distorting reality in "Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth" Robert J. Samuelson: &nbsp;J'accuse! &nbsp;You are using your pulpit to mislead and deceive. &nbsp;You seek to perpetuate the problem rather than solve it.<p>
Samuelson must watch Colbert, since he specializes in truthiness. Just as with all his other articles, today's piece is filled with facts and interesting points that might be true, but the totality of the discussion is not truthful. &nbsp;<p>
How about a truthiness example:<p>
 &nbsp;Consider a separate study by Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm. It simulated a fivefold increase in U.S. electricity from renewables by 2026. Despite that, more coal generating capacity would be needed to satisfy growth in demand. <br>
Wow ... let's cite a report that "simulated" a fivefold increase. Doesn't that sound like a lot? &nbsp;Doesn't that sound like this is a high-end estimate?<p>
Well, wind power is at 25+% growth rates, globally, for many years. And, there are wind turbine factories being built that would support increased growth. &nbsp;At 25%, this is a doubling in slightly less than every three years. In the US, wind is roughly 1% of wind power. &nbsp;If we were postulating a 10% average growth rate over the next 20 (or, 40% of the current), the wind production would be roughly 8 times current levels. &nbsp;<p>
Solar is increasing at 40% ... and shows signs of (seriously) accelerating, both with new PV options and concentrating solar power (CSP).<p>
Emerging are ocean power (wave, tidal, etc) systems.<p>
Geothermal looks like there might be real room for growth, especially if low-temperature geothermal emerges.<p>
It is saddening to see Grist giving Samuelson this level of credence without looking behind the wizard's curtain.<br>
</br></p></p></p></p></p></br></p></p></p></a></p></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #5 by Zarkov</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 07:13:45 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/5</guid>
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				<p><strong>Stupid or somethin</strong></p><p>&gt;&gt; we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing technologies &gt;&gt;</p><p>
D'oh</p><p>
By the time y'all wake up to this glaringly obvious fact, y'all be extinct.</p><p>
Ban OIL NOW NOW NOW</p><p>
burn coal for a while</p><p>
BUT bring on <strong>No Footprint Technology</strong>....</p><p>
READ MY LIPS, if you can't read words!!!!!!!!</p>
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				<p><strong>Stupid or somethin</strong></p><p>&gt;&gt; we could not decrease the likelihood of climate change with existing technologies &gt;&gt;</p><p>
D'oh</p><p>
By the time y'all wake up to this glaringly obvious fact, y'all be extinct.</p><p>
Ban OIL NOW NOW NOW</p><p>
burn coal for a while</p><p>
BUT bring on <strong>No Footprint Technology</strong>....</p><p>
READ MY LIPS, if you can't read words!!!!!!!!</p>
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            <title>Comment #6 by Jason D Scorse</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 08:09:06 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/6</guid>
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				<p><strong>Steve....<p>I agree that there is a huge amount of low-hanging fruit- I mentioned it last week in the piece on CAFE standards- but 80% reductions in greenhouse gases with the global economy expected to quadruple will take a lot more than the low-hanging fruit- it will take major breakthroughs in technology.<p>
J.S.

<p>I teach environmental economics and blog at <a href="http://www.voicesofreason.info" rel="nofollow">http://www.voicesofreason.info. I am a proud liberal, who stands on the shoulders of giants.</a></p></p></p></strong></p>
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				<p><strong>Steve....<p>I agree that there is a huge amount of low-hanging fruit- I mentioned it last week in the piece on CAFE standards- but 80% reductions in greenhouse gases with the global economy expected to quadruple will take a lot more than the low-hanging fruit- it will take major breakthroughs in technology.<p>
J.S.

<p>I teach environmental economics and blog at <a href="http://www.voicesofreason.info" rel="nofollow">http://www.voicesofreason.info. I am a proud liberal, who stands on the shoulders of giants.</a></p></p></p></strong></p>
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            <title>Comment #7 by sunflower</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/</link>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2007 08:45:06 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/addressing-climate-change-wont-be-easy/7</guid>
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				<p><strong>What does &quot;new technology&quot; mean?</strong></p><p>Many voters do not know that discovery and invention are not necessary for replacing 80% of fossil fuels. </p><p>
There is new science available to product developers. &nbsp;The science exists, much of it at NREL. &nbsp;The path is engineering, production, and deployment. &nbsp;Requires capital beyond the circles of dotcoms and Bush friends. &nbsp; </p><p>
Our paths will appear to be much easier than imagined once we get started. </p><p>
New discovery and invention will also happen. &nbsp;</p>
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				<p><strong>What does &quot;new technology&quot; mean?</strong></p><p>Many voters do not know that discovery and invention are not necessary for replacing 80% of fossil fuels. </p><p>
There is new science available to product developers. &nbsp;The science exists, much of it at NREL. &nbsp;The path is engineering, production, and deployment. &nbsp;Requires capital beyond the circles of dotcoms and Bush friends. &nbsp; </p><p>
Our paths will appear to be much easier than imagined once we get started. </p><p>
New discovery and invention will also happen. &nbsp;</p>
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