<![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Why large future warming is very likely]]> Grist Comment Feed en Comment #1 by Colin Wright http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/ Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:45:49 -0800 http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/1 Questions...

Andrew, this looks like a super paper and you have closed another loophole in denialist thinking ("computer models are only models").

Not being a climate scientist, let me pick your brain while I have the chance.

(1) Many of us are worried about the recent observation of methane release from the Siberian continental shelf. Do you any scientific opinion on the likelihood of increased warming above 3 degrees by methane release, and the decreasing albedo due to the loss of Arctic summer ice?

(2)Ken Caldeira has recently modeled the effect of spraying water into the air from ships and finds: "The simulated evaporation of about one-half inch of additional water everywhere in the world produced immediate planetary cooling effects that were projected to reach nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit within 20 or 30 years

]]> Questions...

Andrew, this looks like a super paper and you have closed another loophole in denialist thinking ("computer models are only models").

Not being a climate scientist, let me pick your brain while I have the chance.

(1) Many of us are worried about the recent observation of methane release from the Siberian continental shelf. Do you any scientific opinion on the likelihood of increased warming above 3 degrees by methane release, and the decreasing albedo due to the loss of Arctic summer ice?

(2)Ken Caldeira has recently modeled the effect of spraying water into the air from ships and finds: "The simulated evaporation of about one-half inch of additional water everywhere in the world produced immediate planetary cooling effects that were projected to reach nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit within 20 or 30 years

]]> Comment #2 by JMG http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/ Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:00:53 -0800 http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/2 Weird poll

What is the purpose of that poll?  Polls are for popularity, not for questions of science.  What possible value is there in a poll of a non-random poll of a non-random group of Gristmill readers ... to see if your arguments have persuaded some?

I raise this point because I object to the idiots' petitions denying global warming (like the one by the father-son nutjobs in Oregon) as if the number of signatures on a petition has anything to do with reality.  Equally so, a poll of gristmill readers, including the number of regular trolls, says nothing about reality.  So why risk equating the two?

The 5% Project Let's live on the planet as if we intend to stay.

]]> Weird poll

What is the purpose of that poll?  Polls are for popularity, not for questions of science.  What possible value is there in a poll of a non-random poll of a non-random group of Gristmill readers ... to see if your arguments have persuaded some?

I raise this point because I object to the idiots' petitions denying global warming (like the one by the father-son nutjobs in Oregon) as if the number of signatures on a petition has anything to do with reality.  Equally so, a poll of gristmill readers, including the number of regular trolls, says nothing about reality.  So why risk equating the two?

The 5% Project Let's live on the planet as if we intend to stay.

]]> Comment #3 by Andrew Dessler http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/ Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:44:08 -0800 http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/3 A few thoughts ...

Colin Wright-

My interpretation of the IPCC results is that there is about a 50% chance that warming will be greater than 3°C if we do nothing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions.  It is very difficult to establish a probability for unlikely but high consequence events, such as release of methane from clathrates or tundra --- so the answer is I don't really have a good probability estimate.

The article about spraying water into the atmosphere is interesting.  I am quite uncertain as to whether it would actually work, and I am extremely doubtful that it would be practical.  In general, geoengineering solutions are really a last resort, if every other approach has failed and you're heading for the abyss.  

For this kind of application, the best place to inject water (and minimize the greenhouse effect of the gas) would be in places where the atmosphere is basically isothermal, which is likely high latitudes.

JMG-

The poll is just for fun.  As you correctly surmise, it is not a confident measure of anything.

]]> A few thoughts ...

Colin Wright-

My interpretation of the IPCC results is that there is about a 50% chance that warming will be greater than 3°C if we do nothing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions.  It is very difficult to establish a probability for unlikely but high consequence events, such as release of methane from clathrates or tundra --- so the answer is I don't really have a good probability estimate.

The article about spraying water into the atmosphere is interesting.  I am quite uncertain as to whether it would actually work, and I am extremely doubtful that it would be practical.  In general, geoengineering solutions are really a last resort, if every other approach has failed and you're heading for the abyss.  

For this kind of application, the best place to inject water (and minimize the greenhouse effect of the gas) would be in places where the atmosphere is basically isothermal, which is likely high latitudes.

JMG-

The poll is just for fun.  As you correctly surmise, it is not a confident measure of anything.

]]> Comment #4 by Delay And Deny http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/ Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:15:38 -0800 http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/4 Queen of Outer Space


Now I see!

Venusians screwed up their planet by buying SUVs.  Eventually SUVs became so huge that each on was three stories high and 20 feet long.  This caused global warming and made Venus uninhabitable.

They sent a small pod to earth containing one male and one female.

This "Adam and Eve"...at first it was a paradise.  But then Eve said to Adam, "I'm bored, I want to go to the mall".  

This began a millenial long quest to use the Venusian primal mind to build a technological society capable of manufacturing SUVs....which has been a military code word for Surface Utilicar for VENUSIANS!!

An honest man is always in trouble. --Henry Fool



]]> Queen of Outer Space


Now I see!

Venusians screwed up their planet by buying SUVs.  Eventually SUVs became so huge that each on was three stories high and 20 feet long.  This caused global warming and made Venus uninhabitable.

They sent a small pod to earth containing one male and one female.

This "Adam and Eve"...at first it was a paradise.  But then Eve said to Adam, "I'm bored, I want to go to the mall".  

This began a millenial long quest to use the Venusian primal mind to build a technological society capable of manufacturing SUVs....which has been a military code word for Surface Utilicar for VENUSIANS!!

An honest man is always in trouble. --Henry Fool



]]> Comment #5 by stevenearlsalmony http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/ Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:02:08 -0800 http://www.grist.org/article/The-third-degree/5 Taking the road to ruin......

............and getting there fast.

If it turns out to be true and real that the global challenges presented to the human family in our time are primarily the result of the colossal scale and fully expected unbridled growth of worldwide consumption, production and propagation activities by the human species, then it is plainly untrue to suggest that human beings can make no difference now with their efforts to ameliorate these human-induced and -driven conditions.

Unfortunately, we have 'experts' among us who have widely reported, of all things, that what is required of the human community now is "to have the courage to do nothing" in the face of the daunting challenges. This is purely music to the ears of the economic powerbrokers, their bought-and-paid-for politicians and the absurdly enriched 'talking heads' in the mainstream media who are intent on doing nothing more or less than protecting their wealth, power and privileges. Nothing else matters to them.

The family of humanity will soon enough stand up and speak out loudly and clearly to those who maintain the status quo because the very future of our children and life as we know it is in eminent danger, even in these early years of Century XXI.

Any problem or condition the human family can cause to exist is a situation over which human beings have at least a modicum of control.

For example, what is to keep people from consuming fewer resources.....and sharing them with those less fortunate? What keeps large-scale producers of stuff from "right-sizing" their organizations.... and making them sustainable? What prevents a human being from making a decision about bringing offspring into the world? These are distinctly human choices. Ours and ours alone to make, I suppose.

It is supremely ironic but the horrendous leadership provided by the self-proclaimed Masters of the Universe in my "Not So GREAT GREED GRAB Generation" may have inadvertently pushed the real issues of our time to the front of the world's stage. Were it not for the colossal mistakes of such woefully inadequate and remarkably selfish leaders, the dire circumstances of the current situation presented to the human family by the explosive growth of global human overgrowth activities would not be so easily seen or understood by all of us.

Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population
established 2001
http://sustainabilityscience.org/content.html?contentid=1 ...




]]> Taking the road to ruin......

............and getting there fast.

If it turns out to be true and real that the global challenges presented to the human family in our time are primarily the result of the colossal scale and fully expected unbridled growth of worldwide consumption, production and propagation activities by the human species, then it is plainly untrue to suggest that human beings can make no difference now with their efforts to ameliorate these human-induced and -driven conditions.

Unfortunately, we have 'experts' among us who have widely reported, of all things, that what is required of the human community now is "to have the courage to do nothing" in the face of the daunting challenges. This is purely music to the ears of the economic powerbrokers, their bought-and-paid-for politicians and the absurdly enriched 'talking heads' in the mainstream media who are intent on doing nothing more or less than protecting their wealth, power and privileges. Nothing else matters to them.

The family of humanity will soon enough stand up and speak out loudly and clearly to those who maintain the status quo because the very future of our children and life as we know it is in eminent danger, even in these early years of Century XXI.

Any problem or condition the human family can cause to exist is a situation over which human beings have at least a modicum of control.

For example, what is to keep people from consuming fewer resources.....and sharing them with those less fortunate? What keeps large-scale producers of stuff from "right-sizing" their organizations.... and making them sustainable? What prevents a human being from making a decision about bringing offspring into the world? These are distinctly human choices. Ours and ours alone to make, I suppose.

It is supremely ironic but the horrendous leadership provided by the self-proclaimed Masters of the Universe in my "Not So GREAT GREED GRAB Generation" may have inadvertently pushed the real issues of our time to the front of the world's stage. Were it not for the colossal mistakes of such woefully inadequate and remarkably selfish leaders, the dire circumstances of the current situation presented to the human family by the explosive growth of global human overgrowth activities would not be so easily seen or understood by all of us.

Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population
established 2001
http://sustainabilityscience.org/content.html?contentid=1 ...




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