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	<title><![CDATA[Grist - Comment Feed for Obama strategy on climate bill: get it passed, then let markets make the argument]]></title>
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            <title>Comment #1 by Ken Johnson</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/</link>
			<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:11:50 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/1</guid>
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				<p>WILL YOU PEOPLE NEVER LEARN?!! We've already been though this scenario with the US acid rain program. Yes, costs came down much quicker and further than people anticipated. But the trading program translated those cost reductions into lower emission prices, not lower emissions. The lower prices quenched the incentive for further emission reductions. This is the fundamental nature of cap-and-trade, that it creates incentives for maximum emissions up to a predetermined, unsustainable cap limit (which is unsustainable because it was based on over-inflated cost expectations, and not based on sustainability requirements). The acid rain program, in particular, continues to focus incentives on further cost reductions, not further emission reductions, even though further emission reductions would yield a projected 20:1 societal benefit-to-cost ratio. For a preview of where Waxman-Markey is leading, look at the history of the EPA's attempts to strengthen acid rain regulations through the Clean Air Interstate Rule.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
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				<p>WILL YOU PEOPLE NEVER LEARN?!! We've already been though this scenario with the US acid rain program. Yes, costs came down much quicker and further than people anticipated. But the trading program translated those cost reductions into lower emission prices, not lower emissions. The lower prices quenched the incentive for further emission reductions. This is the fundamental nature of cap-and-trade, that it creates incentives for maximum emissions up to a predetermined, unsustainable cap limit (which is unsustainable because it was based on over-inflated cost expectations, and not based on sustainability requirements). The acid rain program, in particular, continues to focus incentives on further cost reductions, not further emission reductions, even though further emission reductions would yield a projected 20:1 societal benefit-to-cost ratio. For a preview of where Waxman-Markey is leading, look at the history of the EPA's attempts to strengthen acid rain regulations through the Clean Air Interstate Rule.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
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            <title>Comment #2 by Ted Glick</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:49:40 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/2</guid>
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				<p>Dave,</p><p>You don't see any other road forward? How about what candidate Obama and Obama until sometime in the spring of 2009 was putting forward: 100% auction, return 80-85% of the revenue to the American people, invest the remainder in green jobs/renewables/international assistance? And don't say this isn't politically possible. It was clearly a political winner with the American people. The problem is that Obama allowed the fossil fuel and industrial agriculture interests to run the show when it came to legislation in the House instead of going to the American people to again lay out his plan and enlist their participation to counter those corporate interests.</p><p>History shows that there's only one thing that beats money power: organized and visible people power.</p><p>Ted Glick</p>
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				<p>Dave,</p><p>You don't see any other road forward? How about what candidate Obama and Obama until sometime in the spring of 2009 was putting forward: 100% auction, return 80-85% of the revenue to the American people, invest the remainder in green jobs/renewables/international assistance? And don't say this isn't politically possible. It was clearly a political winner with the American people. The problem is that Obama allowed the fossil fuel and industrial agriculture interests to run the show when it came to legislation in the House instead of going to the American people to again lay out his plan and enlist their participation to counter those corporate interests.</p><p>History shows that there's only one thing that beats money power: organized and visible people power.</p><p>Ted Glick</p>
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            <title>Comment #3 by Jesse Jenkins</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:54:46 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/3</guid>
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				<p>What incentives are we talking about exactly?&nbsp; I'm an innovation optimist, IF the right incentives are in place.&nbsp; But <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_xii_1.shtml" rel="nofollow">if only a fraction of <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_offsets_provisio.shtml" rel="nofollow">the legally-permitted 2 billion tons of offsets are used each year, the cap and trade program this bill establishes will <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_vii.shtml" rel="nofollow">provide essentially zero incentive to transform the U.S. energy economy or drive clean energy innovation for a decade or two.&nbsp; <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_xi.shtml" rel="nofollow">The bill's renewable electricity standard may not require any more renewable energy than is already expected under conservative BAU forecasts from the EIA (as you point out, EIA always lowballs those estimates), so it's no help either.&nbsp; The bill's renewable energy and efficiency investments are <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">just a fraction of what we invested in the stimulus bill, and the investments in R&amp;D are <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">an order of magnitude lower than what <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/energy_and_environment/" rel="nofollow">President Obama continues to promise on his website (i.e. ~$1b-1.5b in ACES vs $15b per year on his website and in his budget).&nbsp;<p><br />So again: I'm an innovation optimist, IF the right incentives are in place.&nbsp; But <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/aces_analysis_full_breakthroug.shtml" rel="nofollow">what incentives exactly is this bill establishing?&nbsp; How will it drive a clean energy technology revolution?&nbsp; I'm all for faith.&nbsp; But this just strikes me as silly.</a></br></p></a></a></a></a></a></a></a></p>
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				<p>What incentives are we talking about exactly?&nbsp; I'm an innovation optimist, IF the right incentives are in place.&nbsp; But <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_xii_1.shtml" rel="nofollow">if only a fraction of <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_offsets_provisio.shtml" rel="nofollow">the legally-permitted 2 billion tons of offsets are used each year, the cap and trade program this bill establishes will <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_vii.shtml" rel="nofollow">provide essentially zero incentive to transform the U.S. energy economy or drive clean energy innovation for a decade or two.&nbsp; <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_xi.shtml" rel="nofollow">The bill's renewable electricity standard may not require any more renewable energy than is already expected under conservative BAU forecasts from the EIA (as you point out, EIA always lowballs those estimates), so it's no help either.&nbsp; The bill's renewable energy and efficiency investments are <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">just a fraction of what we invested in the stimulus bill, and the investments in R&amp;D are <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">an order of magnitude lower than what <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/energy_and_environment/" rel="nofollow">President Obama continues to promise on his website (i.e. ~$1b-1.5b in ACES vs $15b per year on his website and in his budget).&nbsp;<p><br />So again: I'm an innovation optimist, IF the right incentives are in place.&nbsp; But <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/aces_analysis_full_breakthroug.shtml" rel="nofollow">what incentives exactly is this bill establishing?&nbsp; How will it drive a clean energy technology revolution?&nbsp; I'm all for faith.&nbsp; But this just strikes me as silly.</a></br></p></a></a></a></a></a></a></a></p>
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            <title>Comment #4 by Ken Johnson</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:49:12 -0700</pubDate>
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				<p>David,<br /><br />Joe Romm also did a <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/30/obama-confident-senate-will-pass-unprecedented-clean-energy-and-climate-bill-defends-allocations/" rel="nofollow">recent blog on this subject. I tried to post a responsive comment, but Joe deleted it. I'm posting the same comment below, because it is more substantive than my preceding response to this post -- see #1 above. (Is the comment offensive or inappropriate? It's not clear to me what Joe found objectionable.)<br /><br />Re "I don&rsquo;t see any other road forward" - It would be prudent to start contemplating alternative strategies in the event that the Senate doesn't come through. I've started work on some publications on this topic, which you might find of interest. The first has been submitted to Energy Policy and is posted <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=1428006" rel="nofollow">here.<br /><br />Ken Johnson<p>&nbsp;<p>Rejected response to Joe Romm's blog:<br /><br />This is profoundly discouraging. Obama says we can look back "five years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now" and at that time consider an "even more ambitious program"; and "you have to have meaningful targets so that by 2020, by 2050 we are actually seeing reductions in carbon emissions". Climate science is telling us we don't have 5-10-15 years to begin that "more ambitious program"; and we need to be well beyond the stage of "seeing reductions" in 2050. Obama is trying to put W-M in a positive light, but "you can't put lipstick on a pig".<br /><br />He asserts that "it's going to be very similar to the Clean Air Act of '91 or how we approached acid rain, where all the nay-sayers are proven wrong". Obama has become a puppet of the cap-and-trade dogmatists, whose notion of "success" is "achieving an unsustainable and wholly inadequate cap as cheaply as possible". Considering what the acid rain program accomplished, and what it could have accomplished with existing technology (see <a href="http://environmentalintegrity.org/pub314.cfm" rel="nofollow">here and <a href="http://www.catf.us/publications/reports/Acid_Rain_Report.pdf" rel="nofollow">here), I think any impartial observer would conclude that its cap-and-trade regulatory model is insufficient to the task of global climate stabilization. (Look at the history of the EPA's attempts to institute its "more ambitious program": the Clean Air Interstate Rule. Is that the kind of regulatory model we want to establish for global climate stabilization?)<br /><br />What I find particularly discouraging is the stultifying lack of imagination in our legislative process. For example, on the subject of import tariffs, why not consider import subsidies on low-GHG goods? Tariffs and subsidies can be used in combination to preserve revenue neutrality. If we're considering output-based allocation for our trade-sensitive industries, why not apply the same principle to imports?</br></br></a></a></br></br></br></br></p></p></br></br></a></br></br></a></br></br></p>
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				<p>David,<br /><br />Joe Romm also did a <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/30/obama-confident-senate-will-pass-unprecedented-clean-energy-and-climate-bill-defends-allocations/" rel="nofollow">recent blog on this subject. I tried to post a responsive comment, but Joe deleted it. I'm posting the same comment below, because it is more substantive than my preceding response to this post -- see #1 above. (Is the comment offensive or inappropriate? It's not clear to me what Joe found objectionable.)<br /><br />Re "I don&rsquo;t see any other road forward" - It would be prudent to start contemplating alternative strategies in the event that the Senate doesn't come through. I've started work on some publications on this topic, which you might find of interest. The first has been submitted to Energy Policy and is posted <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=1428006" rel="nofollow">here.<br /><br />Ken Johnson<p>&nbsp;<p>Rejected response to Joe Romm's blog:<br /><br />This is profoundly discouraging. Obama says we can look back "five years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now" and at that time consider an "even more ambitious program"; and "you have to have meaningful targets so that by 2020, by 2050 we are actually seeing reductions in carbon emissions". Climate science is telling us we don't have 5-10-15 years to begin that "more ambitious program"; and we need to be well beyond the stage of "seeing reductions" in 2050. Obama is trying to put W-M in a positive light, but "you can't put lipstick on a pig".<br /><br />He asserts that "it's going to be very similar to the Clean Air Act of '91 or how we approached acid rain, where all the nay-sayers are proven wrong". Obama has become a puppet of the cap-and-trade dogmatists, whose notion of "success" is "achieving an unsustainable and wholly inadequate cap as cheaply as possible". Considering what the acid rain program accomplished, and what it could have accomplished with existing technology (see <a href="http://environmentalintegrity.org/pub314.cfm" rel="nofollow">here and <a href="http://www.catf.us/publications/reports/Acid_Rain_Report.pdf" rel="nofollow">here), I think any impartial observer would conclude that its cap-and-trade regulatory model is insufficient to the task of global climate stabilization. (Look at the history of the EPA's attempts to institute its "more ambitious program": the Clean Air Interstate Rule. Is that the kind of regulatory model we want to establish for global climate stabilization?)<br /><br />What I find particularly discouraging is the stultifying lack of imagination in our legislative process. For example, on the subject of import tariffs, why not consider import subsidies on low-GHG goods? Tariffs and subsidies can be used in combination to preserve revenue neutrality. If we're considering output-based allocation for our trade-sensitive industries, why not apply the same principle to imports?</br></br></a></a></br></br></br></br></p></p></br></br></a></br></br></a></br></br></p>
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            <title>Comment #5 by ed abbey</title>
			<link>http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/</link>
			<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:25:25 -0700</pubDate>
			<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-29-obama-strategy-climate-bill/5</guid>
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				<p>" I believe that whatever the [renewable energy standard] percentage is, it will take off. It will take off", says Ms. Pelosi; and David seems to agree. But hey, remember how far the House streeeeeetched the definition of "renewables".&nbsp; Bogus technologies like industrial biomass (read forest and toxic material incineration); nukes; and "clean" coal will be hogging the front row by the feeding trough, leaving wind, solar, etc. fighting for the scraps. It's corporate capitalism, David. Wake up!</p>
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				<p>" I believe that whatever the [renewable energy standard] percentage is, it will take off. It will take off", says Ms. Pelosi; and David seems to agree. But hey, remember how far the House streeeeeetched the definition of "renewables".&nbsp; Bogus technologies like industrial biomass (read forest and toxic material incineration); nukes; and "clean" coal will be hogging the front row by the feeding trough, leaving wind, solar, etc. fighting for the scraps. It's corporate capitalism, David. Wake up!</p>
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