Unnatural Disasters

Map: NationalAtlas.gov

1. Uneven Ground

The bad news: Much of Seattle's downtown has been built on landfill and other unsteady ground, which can turn to liquid during earthquakes. The last quake here, in 2001, was deep, but a shallower one could cause this liquefaction, threatening residents and landmarks like the train station, football stadium, and (gasp!) Starbucks HQ. Meanwhile, Bill Steele of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network worries that an offshore subduction quake, due every few hundred years, might strike "any day," rupturing fuel tanks and wreaking havoc.

The good news: Local and state officials are considering replacing the city's elevated highway and reinforcing its seawall, and Steele says awareness has increased: "The Northwest may turn out to be a leader in reducing our risk before disaster strikes."

[back to map]



2. Weak Levees

The bad news: Sacramento, the country's 26th-largest metropolitan area ranks No. 1 in flooding risk, according to The Sacramento Bee. That's because of a troubling mix: increasing urbanization and the erosion of peat soils supporting much of the area's aging 1,100-mile levee system. In the words of a bipartisan state congressional coalition, "a major breach in these levees [due to a major storm, earthquake, or deterioration] could imperil hundreds of thousands of people and endanger most of the state's water supply."

The good news: While awareness of this problem has long been high, funding has been low. But Congress recently upped area flood-control support from $9 million to nearly $40 million, and upgrades are scheduled for next summer.

[back to map]



3. Fire Foolishness

The bad news: We like to build houses in places that burn. Wildfires consumed 8.3 million U.S. acres this year, forcing residents in many states to flee their homes. "Nature will burn," says Roger Kennedy, former National Park Service director. "The question is, who's going to be there when it does?" Kennedy says fire disproportionately affects low-income people, especially in Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana, and predicts that imbalance could lead to a Katrina-like revelation: "The next great discovery will be too little water, not too much."

The good news: There's not a lot, unless we overhaul the insurance, housing, and transportation industries. But scientists have improved wildfire forecasting in recent years, and are perfecting a "debris-flow warning system" for burned areas.

[back to map]



4. Lost Wetlands

The bad news: Just as lost wetlands helped sink New Orleans, they're haunting Houston. The flood-prone city sees major storms every other year, and relies on coastal flats and "prairie potholes" to absorb and filter rain. But since a 2001 Supreme Court ruling scaled back federal wetlands jurisdiction, development has boomed, and "no area has been more affected ... than the Texas coast," says Jim Blackburn, an environmental engineering professor at Rice University. According to John Jacob, director of the Texas Coastal Watershed Program, the situation is "pretty much approaching catastrophic."

The good news: A small but growing Wetland Restoration Team is drawing attention to the issue, with local students getting involved. Meanwhile, limited relief is provided by the stormwater detention basins developers are required to build.

[back to map]



5. Water Woes

The bad news: In the West, a population explosion in recent decades coupled with climate change in the coming decades almost certainly means water trouble. The outlook ranges from flooding in California to possible droughts in the interior, says Brad Udall, director of the NOAA-funded Western Water Assessment program at the University of Colorado. And parts of the Southwest, he says, "could see massive diebacks in piñon and juniper forests, [then] forest fires, water pollution in terms of runoff and sediment ... It's something people need to pay attention to and be planning for."

The good news: The country is "not going to run out of water," says Dennis Lettenmaier, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Washington. "It's just a question of who's going to pay for it, and what it's going to be used for."

[back to map]



6. Flood Relatives

The bad news: When St. Louis suffered major flooding in 1993, experts called it a 100-year event. Apparently that was comforting: thousands of acres that were underwater then have now been developed. Southern Illinois University geologist Nicholas Pinter says levees and dams have forced higher flood levels in the region over time, and new construction will up the ante. On top of that, says Missouri Coalition for the Environment director Ted Heisel, the city's floodwall needs a $20 million fix. What will happen? As Heisel puts it, "The water has to go somewhere."

The good news: MCE, Great Rivers Habitat Alliance, and others are working to strengthen floodplain rules and fight development. They have at least one influential voice on their side, beer magnate Adolphus Busch IV, but it's an uphill battle.

[back to map]



7. Sprawl Addiction

The bad news: Sprawl happens everywhere, but experts cite Atlanta as the poster child, with 500 acres lost to development each week. While U.S. suburbanites happily rationalize their long commutes, energy experts are waiting for the whole system to crash. If a major oil shortage hit this or any other exurban area, how would all those sprawl-dwellers get anywhere, or transport food, or heat their McMansions? How would they escape a storm (remember Rita)? Keeping up current national patterns, says peak-oil guru Matthew Simmons, is "a luxury we can't afford."

The good news: Atlanta's business community and regional planners are collaborating for the first time to stop sprawl in its tracks. Elsewhere in the U.S. (and abroad), Post Carbon Institute is encouraging small groups to learn how to meet needs locally.

[back to map]



8. Nuclear Reactions

The bad news: The U.S. has 104 nuclear-power reactors, but New Jersey's Hope Creek Plant tops the worry list. With a bent pump shaft causing vibrations, this aging facility could be prone to a meltdown, says David Lochbaum of the Union of Concerned Scientists. On a regular day, he says, 10,000 to 30,000 people would be affected; mix in a heavy wind or storm, and watch out Wilmington and Philadelphia. "It won't be a surprise if that pipe breaks," Lochbaum says. "It won't be an accident. It will be criminal negligence."

The good news: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has extracted a promise from plant owner Public Service Electric and Gas to fix the problem in six months to a year. In the meantime, NRC requires daily monitoring.

[back to map]



9. Aging Dams

The bad news: Last month, 2,000 residents of Taunton, Mass., were evacuated when a wooden dam nearly burst after the town received seven inches of rain. The widely reported crisis reminded the nation just how many aging dams are out there (roughly 95,000, since you asked). While federal dams are regularly inspected -- the Bureau of Reclamation oversees 472, and the Army Corps of Engineers tends another 600 -- tens of thousands of privately owned dams need attention too.

The good news: The "promising trend" of dam removal is on the upswing, according to American Rivers, which reports that 56 dams were removed this year. Dam safety has also improved in recent years, thanks to the work of state agencies.

[back to map]



10. Beach Oblivion

The bad news: The Southeast has a penchant for "renourishment" projects, which import sand to bolster beaches and protect shorefront property from hurricanes. This type of work, for which the feds pay half, is popular with local officials (think Jaws-type tourism priorities). But besides damaging coral reefs and other critters, the re-sanding "gives people a false sense of security," says Michelle Duval, a scientist with Environmental Defense who lives in North Carolina. "I'd challenge any one of those projects to stand up to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane."

The good news: Presidents Clinton and Bush (yes, the current one) have both sought to reduce federal dollars for renourishment, reasoning that state and local governments should pay instead. But both have faced fierce opposition in Congress.

[back to map]