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Unusual Weather We're Having, Ain't It?

Number-crunchers say 2006 on track to be the sixth-hottest on record

As 2006 limps to a close, it's measuring in as the world's sixth-hottest year on record. It's the warmest Britain has seen since wenches were hoisting tankards of grog (er, since records began in 1659), and the third-warmest in the U.S.'s Lower 48 since 1880. Weird weather has gripped the globe this year, from rainy Africa to droughty Australia and China. According to the U.K. Meteorological Office, the 10 hottest years on record have been in the last 12 years, and scientists say it ain't no coincidence. Yes, the globe has warmed and cooled over time, but the last 50 years don't fit natural patterns, and most say human behavior is to blame. "I cannot see how else this can be explained," said U.K. climate researcher Phil Jones, who noted that changing weather patterns fit climate-model forecasts. Adding to the grim vibe, a study published in Science says sea level rise due to global warming could be 59 percent higher than previously thought. Oh, waiter! Another pint of grog, please.

straight to the source: The New York Times, Andrew C. Revkin, 15 Dec 2006
straight to the source: The Guardian, Ian Sample, 14 Dec 2006
straight to the source: New Scientist, Catherine Brahic, 14 Dec 2006
straight to the source: BBC News, 14 Dec 2006


Comments: (7 comments)

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Political intimidation

Political intimidation on climate change is no worse now than it was in 2000 at NOAA's NWS.

Need A Little More Help Understanding

Was political intimidation from Clinton and Gore pretty strong in 2000?  Was the intimidation less in 1999 or earlier?  Is political intimadation at NOAA less now that it was?  What is the nature of political intimidation that is felt?

The nature of political intimidation in a government setting at levels lower than the electeds and appointeds is subject to civil service protection and is quite limited and often subtle if present at all.  I have been working in governmental energy since the mid 70s and have generally found little intimidation that could not be ignored.  However, only the politically aligned ideas and plans get implemented.  It is always more fun to work for those whoes interests are aligned, at least it is that way for me.

Here's some more - and more if you want more

I didn't encounter intimidation in 1999 because I didn't know about or voice my views to others on global warming until January of 2000.

In the 1980s and 1990s, I was aware that climate was changing in the Upper Midwest (earlier in the year snowmelt runoff), but I was not aware that the Upper Midwest climate change that was happening was a result of global warming.

Perhaps it was just my own experience in being intimidated in 2000. It's not easy to say who else might have been intimidated into not speaking up about global warming, before (or after) Bush.

I was told by NOAA National Weather Service supervisors in Jan. of 2000 not to say a thing about global warming at my presentation of the Upper Midwest Snowmelt Flood Outlook - which I gave at an inter-agency meeting at the Corps of Engineers office in St. Paul, MN.

During the 1993 summer floods, NWS supervisors told national news media they would not do interviews unless the media agreed not to bring up
the subject of global warming during the interviews.

Thinking back, I don't think it was just my own individual experience of encountering intimidation from NWS supervisors in 2000.  Things went very badly for me because I was persistent in researching and talking about how climate change was already having an impact on snowmelt timing and flooding in the Upper Midwest.

There are about 5,500 meteorologists and hydrologists working in NWS offices throughout the U.S. There must have been some other NWS
employees at that time having thoughts about global warming but they were probably afraid to say anything.  

I'm speaking of only my own experience, but that does not mean I was alone in being intimidated for wanting to research climate change and talk about it.

Censure and Censor

it seems scientists are to be silenced while people who know nothing but their irrevelant opinions can call the shots.
Such is the world of politics.  Follow the piper guys

Maybe one day the worm will turn. LOL

I See What You Mean

Clearly when publicly speaking for an organization one must adhere to policies and position of such an organization, but speaking at an inter-agency meeting between the NOAA and the Corp would seem like a non-public meeting where positions could and should be discussed openly.

Now we look at what seemed like early snow melts and unusually hot dry summers of the 80s as much closer to the norms than what we saw in the 90s and then even earlier melts and warmer temps in 00s.

I was in the North Central 20 years ago and the Corp would get upset when those of us from the municipal and state government sectors would raise issues about the Corp hydro release forecasts and the state of silt above its dams.  In general they were in denial of reduced rain, the increasing intensity of the storms, the earlier melts, and the silting of dams.  Western Area Power Administration was much more open.  I thought it was just a Corp of Engineer thing.

Letter to Dr. James Baker director of NOAA in 2000

I had just learned that global warming was happening in Jan. of 2000.

In evaluating spring peak flow dates for the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks I saw that there was already a strong trend to earlier in the season runoff, looking at nearly 100 years of USGS streamflow records for March and April.

It seemed wrong for me to not evaluate hydrology changes and to talk about what I had learned with hydrologists I thought I knew with in other offices. I was in a senior (GS-13) level hydrologist position at NOAA NWS NCRFC, titled Water Supply, Snow and Ice Hydrologist, which I filled when the NCRFC office was established in 1979.  I began my career in 1976 at the Kansas City RFC, which then had river forecast responsibility for the combined area (entire Midwest and Missouri River Basin).

This letter that I wrote in Feb of 2000 to the director of NOAA shows how I felt at that time.

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: npat1@juno.com
To: D.James.Baker@noaa.gov
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2000 18:21:05 -0600
Subject: I request your help
Message-ID: <20000205.182108.-491747.0.npat1@juno.com>

To: Dr. James D. Baker, director of NOAA
From: Patrick J. Neuman, National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, Minnesota

Dear Dr. Baker,

I have recently experienced complications at work as a result of my efforts in support of your bold statements on global warming on the CBS Evening News with Dan Rather.

I made a poster on global warming, and planned to participate in the demonstration of government services at the Mall of America this weekend. On Friday, I was ordered to stop all efforts concerning global warming by my supervisor, Dean Braatz. I called the NWS Central Region personal office and spoke with Pat Jordan who advised me not to participate in the demo even as a private citizen. Today I discovered that my computer at work has been removed and sent to the regional
office.

Next week I oversee our initial snowmelt flood outlook, which I have done for the past 21 years. Although the potential for flooding in the
Midwest this year is not great, it is still going to be a very difficult task without easy access to my computer and files.

My messages of concern on global warming can be found on several egroup lists on the Internet, primarily on mn-politics-discuss. I have been considering this effort as having importance above all else.

Will you check into this work complication for me and see if I can get my computer back immediately to help in preparing for this week's flood outlook?

Will you see if I can get explanation on why I was allowed to prepare for the demo at the Mall on global warming then not even allowed to
participate in it as a private citizen?

This situation is creating a great deal of stress in my life. Please get back to me as soon as possible. I would be honored to speak with you about it, if you called me.

Sincerely,
Pat Neuman
St. Paul MN
phone: home 651 647 5136 work: 612 361 6664
e-mail npat1@juno.com work: pat.neuman@noaa.gov

------------------


making a difference

Hello Energy Consumers                        December, 2006

I am a retired science teacher who is still very involved in environmental education. As the country came together on December 16, 2006 to view and respond to Al Gore's movie "Inconvenient Truth", I thought it would be timely to share a program that I think may interest you.

MAD3 -Make A Difference to the Third Power.  

The importance of teaching ENERGY EDUCATION and CONSERVATION to everyone will ensure that we can positively affect on our planet's future.  MAD3 gives middle and high school students the opportunity to make a difference by going into their community and help others, to help others, to help others to understand that each of us CAN make a big difference NOW.

ENERGY HOGS, an environmental board game is able to teach students of middle and high school age how to make their homes energy efficient. The game develops energy saving ideas that can be shared at home and in their community. Helping to reduce pollution and global warming, students can sense that they are making a difference and can feel proud and want to share their enthusiasm with others.

Students receive ENERGY HOGS games to take home play with their family and friends. They can continue making connections to others who are looking for ways to make a difference in their lives, other lives and in their community. Many people want to make that difference but do not know how. This program can give them direction.

These outreach efforts should ultimately be to find donors who wish to provide classes, schools, and districts, camps with copies of the ENERGY HOGS game.  Students can then go in the field and feel professional about sharing their new found interest in Energy Conservation. MAD3 will also raise test scores since improvement of reading, math and writing skills will result from the interdisciplinary nature of the program.

Making community connections charges and motivates middle school students as agents of change.  They can sense that they can make a difference. The key to getting the students hooked on the importance of energy conservation is with an environmental board and card game ENERGY HOGS made by Green Games. (www.greengames.org)

As Make a Difference3 moves into the next layers of networks it looks ultimately for organizations and individuals who wants to make a real big difference by DONATING ENERGY HOGS to students, classes, schools and districts that are interested in participating in the program.

Empowering people of all ages to become knowledgeable about how choices affect their ecological footprint can be a very valuable lesson for the global citizen of today and tomorrow.

Participants in the program will have an energy awareness day a local school where parents and their children will view Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth". They will learn how to play the Energy Hogs game that will be led by students at the school. Energy Hog Games will be raffled off to parents/child attendees depending on the number of games that have been donated to the school.

Please call 718-965-9814 or email Barry Weinbrom  baw441@aol.com for more information on how to join the network of people who are interested in MAD.  Let your energy and efforts add another power to MAD3.

Thank you,
Barry Weinbrom
Environmental Educator

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