It may reach 1.5 billion...but it'll slide right back down to .5 billion.

Il faut cultiver notre jardin.

To understand the extent of the problem, though, we need to get a clear sense of how many people are demanding and buying these products, as well as who and where they are, and how purchases are typically made.  For one thing, many Chinese live outside of mainland China, in other East Asian countries; for another, many people who are not ethnically Chinese may wish to resort to traditional Chinese medicinal practices, including consuming animal parts, even as many people in North America go regularly to acupuncturists.  Presumably these people from outside mainland China have more money to spend for expensive treatments than do the great majority of people in China.  Cf. the analogous fashion for shark-fin soup, a luxury item, very expensive, which is usually associated with wealthy, autonomous Hong Kong, not with the rest of China.

Our good friend Patrick Bookerly, "Patrick in Beijing," regularly complains -- and rightly so! -- of the misinformation and prejudice that can be discovered in reports about Chinese society, politics and economics, even in so excellent and unbiased a news purveyor as Grist.  I recall that a while back, when this subject of Chinese traditional medicine and the poaching of endangered wildlife came up, he said that non-animal sources for those medicines were being found and used.  That is good news.  But again, I wonder how widespread that hopeful sign really is, and whether it is likely to continue.

Also, it would be naive to assume that modern Western medicine will irresistibly sweep aside all traditional non-Western medical practices and techniques everywhere.  Certainly as China's prestige grows and that of the West falls, and as nationalist and ethnic pride remains an important factor in popular attitudes, among the Chinese no less than anywhere else, we can expect that the market for animal parts will if anything increase -- until the animals are gone for good.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

Even if all humans only consumed just enough to stay alive, we'd still be causing major environmental harms due to our gross overpopulation.  I've realized this since I was 14 and cannot begin to understand how other people refuse or fail to do so.  How would you like it if some species that made it difficult or impossible to live in an area were everywhere on the planet?

It is curious that people tend to dislike passionately being told how many children they may have.  No doubt the population experts have discussed the matter thoroughly.  When the Chinese tried, heavy-handedly, to impose a limit of two children to each married couple, I do not recall that they were praised by anyone in the West.  But also generally in the West, do we ever hear a message to this effect?: "Be good to the planet: two kids are plenty, one kid is better, and none is best of all!"  And I do not think it is only the (hypocritically named) pro-life/pro-family crowd who would protest.

On the other hand, we hear many reports about declining birth-rates in a number of countries, presented in frightening terms: The tax base will decline; the work force will be uncompetitive; immigrants from countries with burgeoning populations will take over.  And: Young couples who do not replace themselves with at least two children are being selfish.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

   If the world can't afford for Chinese people to live an American lifestyle, then........

   The world can't afford for Americans to live an American lifestyle.

patrick in Beijing

   The population of China is already on a path to decline (demographically), the government is planning for a rise in average age, and an how to deal with an aging population.  It isn't there yet, but the signs are clear.  So how come everyone is still concerned about China's population, and not, India's??  One is tempted to suspect bias (racial) or fear (or a rising economic power).

   You should also note that Mexico is also moving in the right direction, as is much of the developing world.

   Alas, for those determined to hold on to the American SUV-Macmansion lifestyle, it is only as people become wealthier that population declines.  A paradox, no?

   In terms of endangered species, the use of their body parts for TCM is terrible, but declining (at least in mainland China), and the government tries to crack down those who engage in the illegal animal trade.

   But the US does a very poor job of regulating the illegal importation of endangered species as toys (errr... pets) by it's own citizens.  So, beware of screaming at kettles.

   So much energy bashing developing countries, so little spent getting the US to do anything serious about climate change... sigh...

patrick in Beijing