Comments Fixsen has made

Math of PV cells

Wow, is this guy optimistic! First, his comment that a PV cell is no more complicated than a beer can suggests that a computer is no more complicated than a block of plastic. In fact the price ratio is about a factor of 1000. The PV cell is probably close to as cheap as it's going to get.

Second, he ignores the interest on the PV cell which must be paid while the PV cell is cranking out the electricity. This will tend to double the effective price of the PV cell.

Third, he ignores the price of installation.  Suppose that the PV cells are free (Slightly less optimistic than Grist). Assume that the PV cells are twice as expensive as shingles to install (about 3K$ per roof). So 6K$ per roof will cost ~600$/yr interest. So this eats up most of the price of electricity.

Fourth,  he is overly optimistic on how much electricity one can get. If the PV cells are optimally placed, with no clouds, you get 25% (i.. 6 hours per day); with clouds and random placement, 7% is more likely, or about 1.7 hours not 5.5. This, of course, multiplies all of the costs, so the cost of installation is too high.

Fifth, he ignores the chemicals needed to process the PV cells. If we get the cells down to 1 mm thick,  that's about 1000 lbs. per house, x 100,000,000 or 50 MT of cells. That probably is at least 100 MT of chemicals....

Sixth, he ignores the problem of storing that electricity. For a small fraction (maybe 20%) of the electricity, that is not a big problem in that the use of electricity is higher during the day, and also higher in the summer (air conditioning), but PV for all electricity is MUCH harder.

Dale FixsenOn 'Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster'--Not really, but this may be lesser of two evils posted 1 year, 10 months ago 6 Responses