Comments DaveKimble has made

coal to oil lead times

In the Hirsch Report http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
they look carefully at the amount of time it takes to set up a manufacturing capability in various different unconventional transport fuel processes.

The coal-to-liquid Sasol process set up in South Africa is a good example. Having completed a new plant, and before all the technical staff drifted away to other things, the government decided to build a duplicate facility on the same site, using exactly the same plans.

They thus had everything going for them - environmental impact assessments done, planning permission granted, designs all worked out and the wrinkles already overcome, experienced staff and workers, external supplies and support infrastructure already in place.

And the time to build the second plant to the point of commissioning ? 3 years.

So one could easily expect that without all these favourable factors, the project would take six years, or even ten years if there is a strong NIMBY protest movement in the locality.

More than enough time for oil depletion to have brought on astronomical oil prices, recession, labour unrest, housing bubble collapse, US Dollar/banking crash, wildly uncertain future for energy prices.

Hardly the environment to be undertaking a massively energy-intensive long-term energy project.

We are now not just at Peak Oil, we are at Peak Energy and Peak Population.
On Peak oil, coal, and bizarre optimism posted 3 years, 8 months ago 8 Responses