Comments dima has made
Doesn't compute
As a counterexample to David's prediction, I am deeply committed to the theory of gravity, based on which I can predict with supreme confidence how long it will take a penny to drop (on Earth, from a reasonable height). Will you now argue that my prediction is suspect because I am one of "those deeply committed to and confident in one overarching theory"? If a theory is no good, the predictions based on it will be no good as well. Peak Oil is not Newtonian mechanics, but it has a fairly sturdy theoretical foundation, tested on data from the many countries and regions that have already peaked. Debating the timing of a global peak is a matter of making some assumptions (because not all information is available or of sufficiently high quality) and plugging them through some math. It is most certainly not a matter of judging the character of the person weighing the evidence or making the computations.On What's a prediction worth? posted 3 years, 12 months ago 17 Responses
Ad hominem arguments
Tetlock's basic thesis - that most predictions are nonsense - is interesting.
The technique of improving the quality of predictions by sorting good prognostigators from bad prognosticators and putting them into bins labeled "hedgehogs" and "foxes," is probably nonsense as well. Is the practitioner of this technique a hedgehog or a fox? - one might ask.
Pre-judging prognosticators by asking whether they look like hedgehogs or foxes is most definitely nonsense. The specific term for this sort of fallacy is "ad hominem argument," as in, "He says this sort of thing because that's the sort of person he is."
The subject is too important to allow ourselves to make caricatures of those who try to move the discussion forward.
On What's a prediction worth? posted 3 years, 12 months ago 17 Responses