Comments solarwind has made
umm...just wrong? and which side are you on?
stopgreenpath - just a little curious on your point. you don't want ecosystem destruction, which is understandable, neither do i. Climate change will cause global ecosystem catastrophe. Soo...do you prefer a few Mojave ground squirrels to die from a poorly-sited CSP plant, or massive global die-off of thousands of species. This situation sucks either way you look at it, but to me it's a simple lesser of two evils.
And btw, there is no way 1 MW of wind (which is under 1/3 of the preferred size of turbines nowadays) causes "perminant, total ecosystem death". That's orders of magnitudes wrong. Wow.
You claim also that PV has higher energy density than CSP. Again, way wrong. PV is 8-12 acres/MW, and CSP is 4-6 acres/MW(Ausra's claiming 2.7). Are you assuming "small PV" would be roof mounted? Well, then there'd be no new required land (zero) and thus you wouldn't be able to come up with a fraction in that case either.
Finally, there's a 7-8% increase in LCOE with dry cooling for CSP. So rather than $.15/kWh, you'd be paying ~ %.16/kWh (extra cent). I have a monthly bill of ~ 250kWh...I'll pay $2.50 extra no sweat.On So how much do renewables cost anyway? posted 1 year ago 30 Responses
thnx michael
You said it well. I'd like to add a couple quick thoughts:
*CSP with TES can provide firm dispatchable baseload power. Andasol 1 just came online in Spain, 50MW with 8 hrs. storage. Andasol 2 and 3 are in construction. And central receiver designs have more potential for storage, even 24hr+. There's now doubting CSP's current and future potential for significant power gen.
*the current antiquated grid can support 25% PV penetration before mass storage. So as thin-film and c-Si continue to fall and money from the Iraq war is redirected towards healthy incentives to bring PV to grid-parity, it will be a good DG supplement to the utility-scale CSP, wind and geothermal.
*There's something near 140,000 times the US electrical consumption of potential resource for enhanced geothermal, which is another baseload generator.
These are not technological, nor are they overly economical; all technologies mentioned are nearly competitive with current generation portfolios prices, and are much cheaper than new infrastructure, particulary peaking plants to meet excess peak (which is growing faster than baseload demand, btw).
And finally, it's important to remind ourselves of why we want to do this at such an ambitious pace: curb GHG emissions. Remember? What did Al Gore say in one of his recent speeches...something about a 75% probability that w/in 5 years there will be no summer arctic ice (i think the source he mentioned was Lawrence-Berkeley Labs)? Everything is accelerating, things will surely get worse, and FAST. This is the reason why we must stop debating trivial minor economic differences. Internalize the costs on the damage carbon from coal and other hydrocarbons cause and there's no doubting the "business model" of RE.
If there weren't climate change motivations, no one would be pushing this so hard. All other related issues such as peak oil and national security (domestic production) are ancillary problems, and this should be recognized. We need to stop eCO2 emissions ASAP.On Alliance for Climate Protection ramps up calls for renewable-energy plan posted 1 year ago 17 Responses
what about waste?
I saw a blip the other day about Yucca mountain going forward...the article said that @ the earliest it may open around 2020. But the point here was the 96 billions of dollars of total projected + already expensed project costs, just for waste disposal. Where are these costs when discussing the LCOE of nuclear vs. solar thermal? They should surely be accounted for and will likely significantly impact the LCOE of nuclear power. It really sucks nukes produce such difficult waste, huh...
source:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN084806662 ...
But good posts all around.
Side note: we have to remind ourselves how incredible fossil fuels are - the intrisic chemical energy density is astounding. It will always be difficult for renewables (which harness real-time solar energy) to compete with fossil-fuels (concentrated solar energy).
Renewables have already reached a very advanced technology level to even allow us to debate grid parity. Pretty impressive. However, it hasn't happened yet and need additional subsidization...where is Congress btw? dumb. A carbon tax is a solution that makes a whole lot of sense to me...energy prices would increase, income taxes would decrease. And rebates for the poor so the carbon tax wouln't screw them. The problem would solve itself. A tweaked "free-market". Brilliant On So how much do renewables cost anyway? posted 1 year, 2 months ago 30 Responses
wow...
whew! where to start... first of all, apparently, a VP of an "int'l fortune 50" co. doesn't have anything to do all day but blog - how many times... - 5 or 6? I'm not going to count. My favorite part is that he mentions the BSME as if it's a point to brag about. Oooohhh.. I also have a BSME....oooohhh, but I have MS too! my god! wooowwww... should I mention that everytime I mention something technical? Furthermore, when you rebutted my post, where did you get first- the hostility, and second - that I was talking about avoided cost analysis for a solar power plant? You've made ridiculous assumptions. Yes, I know all about LCOE and LCA and amortization and EBITDA and bla bla bla. I don't feel inclinded to mention every aspect of what my job encompasses in a short blog.
I'm probably wasting my time explaining this, but since I'm almost done I'll continue - renewables are completely viable for firm, dispatchable electric generation. Mr. Hostility, you mentioned you work with geothermal? I'm assuming you mean large-scale geothermal power plants? Well then, you'd know that there's more than enough resource to supply the U.S.'s needs with that technology alone. And here's the crux - it's dispatchable. And CSP with TES (esp. molten salt) can obtain capacity factors of 70% or more. God, man, do your homework. And you claim to be the CSP guru! Wind - yeah, you're not going to get capacity factors much better than 30%...but the idea is that you spread enough out over a wide area, these local fluctuations and rapid transients more or less cancel out and the generation profile becomes much more predictable.
I don't understand, Mr. BSME, Mr. 20+ years in the industry, how you can't see how the combination of geothermal (firm) + CSP w/ TES (firm) + wind (non-firm) + distributed gen PV (non-firm) won't work? Add-in additional energy storage in the form of PEV's and/or utility-scale pumped-hydro, CAES, a smart grid...
These are not technical issues - they are policy issues. And policy can decide any price of electricity they want for renewables. Even today, the LCOE we compare isn't a true LCOE. We include incentives and subsidies. How else do you think coal is so incredibly cheap (aside from the astounding chemical energy density)? Incentivize more, and you're not raising the price that consumers pay at all.
Lastly (god, why did I waste so much time on a blog), my concerns for this specific article (which my first post makes quite clear, I believe) relate to the carbon emissions from extracting energy from fossil fuels... and yes, jubilao, even nat gas fuel-cells release CO2 as a biproduct. CH4 -> CO2 + H20 + (a little)CH4
There's no panacea, but renewables are more than capable.
On Consumers express renewed interest in natural-gas vehicles posted 1 year, 3 months ago 20 Responseshere we go again...
sigh it's scary to me that people can still say this publically. Did we not settle this debate once and for all a year or two ago? Now we're on to debating the long-term effects and the timeline, right? yikes. the thing that makes me sad is that there are somehow still people that don't believe (ha! "believe", likes it's some object of faith) in anthropogenic climate change. In fact, i was having a political talk with my friend (i know, not a good idea) yesterday after Obama's speech, who's a R, who actually told me that "scientists" don't know. I'm not even angry. Depressed, perhaps...
At this stage, I would hope that saying a comment like this would be political suicide and that both the right and the left would jump all over it. Hell, even the Bush administration had finally conceded that the 6-point-whatever-billion of us on the planet burning fossil-fuels at an unprecedented rate has accelerated global warming. Geez...On The eco-rundown on Alaska guv Sarah Palin, John McCain's veep pick posted 1 year, 3 months ago 120 Responses
umm....climate change? hydrocarbons are culprit
Grist - I know you're just regurgitating stories from other sources, but let's make sure we remind people that, ultimately, the motivations for doing away with petroleum is to curb climate change; the biosphere cannot support the current ecosystem if we burn all of our fossil fuels. This includes nat gas.
So a switch to using nat gas as a fuel source would what - lower fuel prices for automobiles? - slightly (I use this carefully) reduce auto carbon emissions from terrible to just-better-than-terrible....And it's another non-renewable resource, so as both population and energy consumption per capita continue to rise, demand will continue to grow as well. Fact of the matter is that we will eventually run out of our plentiful reserves. Bottom line is that even if nat gas were two cents a therm (i.e. much cheaper than petrol, coal, etc.), we still should not be combusting it.
Think of it as an avoided cost - when we price renewable energy generation systems (solar, wind, etc.) for clients, we like to calculate the avoided cost, which is their savings. This is the kWh that the R.E. equipment generates for free (no fuel costs) that would have been purchased from a utility company at a set rate. Compare that to your capital cost, and there's your simple payback. So let's try something similar and try to justify using renewables over petroleum or nat gas by calculating the avoided costs of the future damage of climate change - the costs we would have to pay to build levies to combat rising ocean levels, billions in increased health care costs, skyrocketing food and water prices as droughts and floods wreck agriculture and infrastructure, bla bla bla. A report prepared for Defra and the Treasury estimates that each tonne of carbon dioxide emitted costs about $35 in environmental damage.
On Consumers express renewed interest in natural-gas vehicles posted 1 year, 3 months ago 20 Responsesthere's always a negative..
hmmm...interesting points, thank you to everyone.
I'm torn. stopgreenpath, great quote, and it's really the solution: the greenest energy is that which you needn't ever produce. I.e., conservation is truly the best solution.
That said, demand continues to grow steadily for most utilities. Thus, utility companies must procure new generation. This is the sad truth.
So, accepting this, would I rather have a peaking plant with an open-cycle nat. gas turbine be constructed to meet this demand? And this of course has its negative environmental impacts due to both polution and plant/fuel transportation footprint that would surely disrupt the local ecosystem. OR, is 12.5 sq. mi. of clean PV-produced electricity a better solution? You disrupt the local desert ecosystem, which is bad (i doubt many will argue this point). But lesser of two evils?
This situation we've put ourselves in sucks. Conservation is the ultimate solution, but is it realistic that it will happen? I'm not convinced; there are too many uneducated citizens that would rather drive their SUV's and crank their AC than make any effort to conserve.
Last point - doubling our national PV capacity will undoubtedly lower PV costs helping distributed generation become a reality. Oh yeah, i also must mention, as others have above, that DG is much preferred to centralized PV for numerous reasons. I guess I'm satisfied with the trend, and a few gigantic solar farms to offset some carbon and get the PV industry some more business and momentum is a positive event in my eyes.On Ginormous solar plants to be built in California posted 1 year, 3 months ago 15 Responses
guys guys guys....
ugghhh...and we come back to birds again. do i really have to say this? buildings are the number one killer of birds BY FAR. followed by house cats. people are missing the point. first of all, there's no silver bullet. there's no cold fusion that will produce no waste, little footprint, and massive power. ok, so now what...
let's see the big picture - why are wind turbines better than coal? because our best climate scientists tell us about the consequences of global warming. otherwise, we wouldn't need solar or wind or biomass or geothermal in the U.S.; we'd just build more coal plants. our coal reserves are massive, the power is abundant and dispatchable, and we don't have to think outside of the box due to the heritage of the mature coal industry. ok given that we cannot keep emitting carbon into the biosphere, we need clean energy sources. and if you can't follow this post to this point, then go do some research and get educated already!
will wind turbines kill a few birds? absolutely. will a fossil-fuel-powered world eventually make extinct thousands of bird species? without a doubt. will there be a case of a few birds that see the bright light of a CSP plant's receivers and fly to it and get fried? probably. again, compare apples to apples here - fossil fuels = eventually lead to the extinction of thousands and thousands of species, wind turbines = will kill a small percentage of a species that's much more threatened by high rises and your cat. wanna stop human-caused bird deaths? take that office window of yours and cover the exterior with something opaque. there - now stop complaining about birds.
and people - an electric car TODAY running off of electricity generated at a COAL PLANT has LESS carbon emissions per mile than your standard I.C. gas-fired automobile. With all of the embodied energy involved iwth the processing, transportation, etc, and taking into account the ~15% poor conversion efficiency of the I.C. engine, it works out that way. so an electric fleet right now today would at least be a step (albeit small) towards carbon reductions. so let's switch out our dirty electric infrastructure ASAP...this ambitious goal is absolutely attainable. We just need to be get on the same page and attack it and stop wasting our time with blogs...ugghhh....too late.On The media's central arguments for and against Gore's challenge to the nation posted 1 year, 4 months ago 18 Responses
could say so much...
grrr... i have so much to comment on, but not too much time... i think we need as many renewables as we can as FAST as we can. I agree with christopher above, and others about little damage in the near future (and i believe the damage would be minimal) to avoid MASSIVE damage later (that's the whole point of switching our generation infrastructure to renewables in the first place, right?)
And another thing...I feel I have some credibility to the following comment as well, since I work as an energy engineer/consultant, who deals with PV, wind, solar thermal, etc., along WITH ECM's (Energy Conservation Measures) every day...Distributed generation is AWESOME...whenever I fly anywhere, and when you get close enough to the ground you see all these barren roofs that are PERFECT real-estate for PV/solar thermal (and wind to a lesser extent), it's depressing. THAT SAID - and the point I want to stress more than anything - CSP (Concentrated Solar Power), at least the newer designs, GENERATE DISPATCHABLE POWER!!! This means they can TRULY replace coal/nuclear/nat. gas as BASE LOAD GENERATORS...You need energy storage systems to accomplish this, which is extremely capital-intensive, thus making distributed energy storage not feasible (unless heavily subsidized, which would be great).
OK - gotta go, too much time on this already, but i want to close echoing what some1 said earlier... This is a daunting task we are facing trying to replace fossil-fuel generation, and we need all the help we can get.On Feds freeze new solar projects on public land, pending review posted 1 year, 5 months ago 26 Responses
haha
that's hilarious...
jabailo - c'mon, man. that's such an ignorant comment.
and regardless of whether the airline business is struggling or not, we need to begin to cap their pollution emissions. If the coal industry were "struggling", should it mean that we should cut them slack? Airlines have become an integral part of the global economy and way of life, but does that not mean we can't adapt? How about more increased utilization of other communication technologies (see&share, teleconferences, etc.)???
And for the remaining travel, how about the respective governments subsidize the airline companies more than they do currently (idealy take some of the billions they give to the oil companies)? The current situation is ridiculous...The rising price of oil is hurting everyone but the companies responsible for it in the first place (windfall profits, yada yada)On Airlines must pay for emissions, E.U. says posted 1 year, 5 months ago 7 Responses
statistics are making my head spin
i had initially heard that buildings were 48% of U.S. total ENERGY consumption...it was on Architecture 2030's website, if i remember correctly...although I could be mistaken, since I've also heard the 33-36% of total ENERGY consumption figure as well to confuse me. All the statistics start to blend together after a while, no? :) And 76% sounds extremely high to me as well. I'd love to find out the source behind these numbers so I can confirm the values and be done with it.
Also, I want to comment that although less glamorous, retro-fitting old buildings is a much more important issue than new buildings. This is due to the sheer quanitity of existing buildings (something near 80% of the buildings in the world in 2050 will be the buildings currently built). So, as you can see, if we only concentrate on new construction, it'll only comprise 20% of the 2050 buildings sector and won't make near the carbon/energy reductions aggressive retrofitting would make...Both are great though! Now we just need policy to force us to do so (wish we as a society could do things w/o having to be forced into it, but unfortunately it's not so)!On Ed Norton goes to the Hill to talk up green building posted 1 year, 6 months ago 4 Responses
(cont.)
forgot to get to my point...i think these goals for emissions reductions are without a doubt a good start. They "get the ball rollin'" with the policy makers. After the goal has been set, they have to go back and figure out how to make it happen; w/o any established goals, there would be no time pressures and little political/social pressures, thus insignificant results.On Connecticut goes big with emissions-reducing goals posted 1 year, 6 months ago 4 Responses
so...what then?
I agree with what you've said to an extent ("the only way to significantly lower emissions is radically change American behaviors")... Unfortunately, I forsee significant emission reductions by the average American when and only when the almighty dollar forces it. :( This will either happen with business as usual whenever fossil fuels deplete to the point that renewables and energy-efficient appliances/cars etc. are the cheapest. Trivial, right?
I would like to add that the majority of our energy consuption and subsequent GHG emissions come from sources that the average consumer really doesn't have much control of...industry, agriculture, cement production, POWER PLANTS, gas flaring, etc. It's these carbon/methane/etc. emitting monsters that's causing the majority of emissions, and it's these that need to be controlled with policy. Granted, if everyone used less water in the shower, the utility companies wouldn't need to supply as much natural gas...you can make this argument for power plant electrical production as well...but i think they're weak arguments.
In my opinion, SIGNIFICANT change has to come in the form of gov't policy - emissions caps, carbon taxes, something!!! to essentially FORCE the price of GHG-emitting energy sources up. The idea being it would act as a catalyst for rapid emission reductions.On Connecticut goes big with emissions-reducing goals posted 1 year, 6 months ago 4 Responses