Comments cjwirth has made

  • Peak Oil is a catastrophe

    Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. Merrill Lynch and Matthew Simmons indicate the this could be worse with little investment in oil production.

    In any case, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:"

    "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

    With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

    Documented here:
    http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
    http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Non-OPEC production has likely peaked, oil output could fall by 30 million bpd by 2015 posted 9 months, 3 weeks ago 5 Responses

  • Conservation Will Not Save Us

    Improved rail and conservation is good, but will not save us in the end.

    Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. and Europe represent one third of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere.

    Thus, conservation in the U.S. and Europe will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

    With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

    Documented here:
    http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
    http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Upgrade freight rail: Save 12 percent of oil, 4 percent of emissions, and jumpstart renewable grid posted 10 months, 2 weeks ago 16 Responses

  • Peak Oil is Now

    Independent studies (reviewed in the Peak Oil Report

    http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    by Clifford J. Wirth) conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

    • Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

    • Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly" (2008 to 2010)

    • Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

    • Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

    • T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

    • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

    • Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

    • Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

    • Chris Skrebowski, Editor of "Petroleum Review" (2010)

    • Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

    • Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

    Independent studies conclude that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:"

    "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

    http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_ ...

    With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Journalist interrogates head economist of International Energy Agency posted 11 months, 2 weeks ago 5 Responses

  • National Academy of Science Study of Peak Oil

    Dr. Hirsch apparently thinks there is an over abundance of news/info about Peak Oil. In reality, almost no one knows about this Peak Oil catastrophe.

    Now my research -- http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html -- indicates that alternatives cannot make up the gap in declining oil supplies; this is now confirmed by the Energy Watch Group, which in funded by the German Parliament:

    "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

    http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482

    Clearly, it is important to note that not only will oil production soon decline, but that alternatives will not fill the gap.

    Dr. Hirsch should be announcing that we are in trouble and he should be calling for a National Academy of Science study of Peak Oil impacts. The NAS is the only objective source that can advise the Congress and president without interest group bias.

    Meanwhile back at the ranch. I see the catastrophe coming and I have found a lifeboat off of this Titanic. There is lots of room on the lifeboat. I used to live in NH, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil?
    clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

    Here is another lifeboat that I am working on: http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Robert Hirsch suggests 'keeping relatively quiet' in near-term about peak oil posted 1 year ago 11 Responses

  • Alternatives won't solve the energy problems

    In PEAK OIL COULD TRIGGER MELTDOWN OF SOCIETY, it is interesting to note what the Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes about alternative energies:

    >>>> "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame." <<<<<

    http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482

    According to most independent scientific studies, global oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 9%.

    No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

    We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Pearlstein: 'A Detroit bankruptcy beats a bailout' -- but what do you think? posted 1 year ago 29 Responses

  • The Saudis are only 12%

    The Saudis produce only 12% of global crude oil flow. So if they  increase oil production 10%, this is only 1% of global production. Demand has recently fallen, and that is the main reason for the drop in oil prices over the last few months. The future portends skyrocketing oil prices.

    According to most independent scientific studies, global oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

    This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion  will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

    Surviving Peak Oil: We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On The oil market can't save us from climate change posted 1 year, 2 months ago 33 Responses

  • Iran controls 20 to 40 % of global oil production

    20 to 40 % of global oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran can block.

    To get some idea of how critical this is to the world, read this:

    According to most independent scientific studies, global oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

    This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion  will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

    Surviving Peak Oil: We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed, found at the website listed below.

    I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. Google: surviving peak oil clifford wirth.

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Most revealing Palin energy whopper: Iran could cut off a fifth of the world's energy supplies posted 1 year, 2 months ago 6 Responses

  • None of this stuff will go far

    Unfortunately, renewable energies are not going to save us from this Peak Oil catastrophe.

    According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, global oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

    This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

    We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On The five transport energy solutions and one imperative posted 1 year, 3 months ago 34 Responses

  • Peak Oil is a Catastrophe

    Global oil production is now declining, from 85 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%. This is like a 45% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

    We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    I used to live in NH, but moved to a safer place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area, good climate with much rain and good soil?

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On The current oil shock posted 1 year, 4 months ago 18 Responses

  • Peak Oil is a catastrophe

    Global oil production is now declining, from 85 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. At the same time demand will increase 14%. This is like a 45% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe.

    Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

    We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

    This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
    Anyone interested in relocating to a sustainable area?

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Congress scrambles for short-term solutions to counter oil prices posted 1 year, 4 months ago 4 Responses

  • Global Warming and Peak Oil

    The end of industrialization begins this year. It is called Peak Oil. We are at the peak, and oil production will begin to decline this year. The good news is that global warming will get a break. The bad news is that Peak Oil is a catastrophe for humankind, as explained in this free report: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On The problems and principles of energy descent posted 1 year, 6 months ago 11 Responses

  • Solar and wind worsen the energy crisis

    The development of solar, wind, and nuclear uses much fossil fuels in mining ore, transporting it, manufacturing, the factories, heating for factories, sales, offices, transportation of components, salaries of everyone in the process, that are then spent and then use fossil fuels, and this goes on and on. No, we don't need more electric power. The Peak Oil recession begins this year, and millions will soon be out of work and factories and offices will use less electric power. Eventually, oil production will fall to the point that the power grid can't be maintained (it is highly dependent on oil). That will be the end. See my report for further explanation: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Obama takes NC; Clinton appears to win Indiana posted 1 year, 6 months ago 6 Responses

  • Presidential candidates and Peak Oil

    All of the presidential candidates are ignorant of Peak Oil and the realities of alternative energies. The public wants and the presidential candidates will deliver some Manhattan type energy program. This approach, whether solar, wind, or nuclear will use up a lot of oil, natural gas, and coal and just give us more electric power, which we don't need and can't use to plant, harvest, and transport food, nor will it heat our homes. For more explanations about Peak Oil and alternatives, see: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Obama takes NC; Clinton appears to win Indiana posted 1 year, 6 months ago 6 Responses

  • Nuclear power is a sham

    All of the electric power we could ever want from any source will not solve our energy problems. We need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, trucks, and trains for moving food, medicine, coal, and maintenance vehicles for the electric power grid. Nuclear power will accelerate oil depletion and give us nothing in return. $4 trillion dollars is a lot of waste in oil, natural gas, and coal used in the construction of nuclear boondoggles. The same goes of solar electric and wind electric (not passive solar, which is ok). For an explanation, see: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On McCain calls for 700+ new nuclear plants costing $4 trillion posted 1 year, 6 months ago 26 Responses

  • Trains are not trucks

    The infrastructure investment and complexity (hundreds of thousands of miles of above ground electric lines, crossings, tunnels, train yards, and sidings, etc.) of converting diesel trains to electric is beyond the realm of possibilities. Electrifying the millions of miles of roads for electric trucks is impossible. And how do you maintain all of this without diesel powered equipment? The capital for all of this is impossible now and will become more impossible as the price of oil increases.

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Solving the climate problem will solve the peak oil problem, too posted 1 year, 8 months ago 37 Responses

  • Peak Oil is real and now

    Peak Oil is a geological fact that is recognized by the National Academy of Sciences, General Accountability Office, and Congressional Research Service, etc. A review of scientific and government studies reveals the following:

    Global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will decline until all recoverable oil is depleted within several decades. Because global oil demand is increasing, declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression. Regardless of the time available for mitigating Peak Oil impacts, alternative sources of energy will replace only a small fraction of the gap between declining production and increasing demand. Because oil under girds the world economy, oil depletion will result in global economic collapse and population decline. As oil exporting nations experience both declining oil production and increased domestic oil consumption, they will reduce oil exports to the U.S. Because the U.S.is highly dependent on imported oil for transportation, food production, industry, and residential heating, the nation will experience the impacts of declining oil supplies sooner and more severely than much of the world. North American natural gas production has peaked, importation of natural gas is limited, and the U.S. faces shortages of natural gas within a few years. These shortages threaten residential heating supplies, industrial production, electric power generation, and fertilizer production. Because U.S. coal production peaked in 2002 (in terms of energy provided by coal), the U.S. will experience significantly higher coal and electric prices in future years. The U.S. government is unprepared for the multiple consequences of Peak Oil, Peak Natural Gas, and Peak Coal. Multiple crises will cripple the nation in a gridlock of ever-worsening problems. Within a few decades, the U.S. will lack car, truck, air, and rail transportation, as well as mechanized farming, adequate food and water supplies, electric power, sanitation, home heating, hospital care, and government services. The full report is available at: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On Solving the climate problem will solve the peak oil problem, too posted 1 year, 8 months ago 37 Responses

  • Not much carbon left

    There is not much carbon left that is usable. Oil sands in Canada will yield a maximum of 3 million barrels per day, coal has peaked, and oil shale will not yield anything. See pages 16 to 40: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

    cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com

    On How will you ride the slide? posted 1 year, 12 months ago 7 Responses