Comments Palaces has made

FREEDOM DAY in July, 2039 -- FREEDOM from Carbon

Based on three assumptions, the Carbon Energy Economy is over in 41 years:

(1) Today 1700 MW PV
(2) Doubling installed reduces the price 19%
(3) Growth rate 25%/yr - 3 yrs to double

The date that the entire consumption of electricity from PV occurs can be projected to exact month in the future.

Download spreadsheet
http://www.hydrogenfreedom.info/scenario_1.xls

Tex...

Thirty-two years and six months, July 2039, 1,851,556,663 kW PV, cost will then be $1.01/watt

A double capacity is figured, which is accomplished in thirty-five years, and the cost will be 85 cents per watt.

Hydrogen Economy fourfold increase in PV, accomplished in 41 years, in 2058, cost of PV 60 cents per watt installed.

Three years later the production will have increased to double all the energy of every form currently used, costs will be 50 cents.

http:ecosyn.us PALACES for the People, H2-PV, PV-Breeders acres of PV, tons of Hydrogen

The Math of Replacing Carbon With PV in 10-Years

The financial cost of electricity can be figured out. American homes use 24 kWhs a day on average, more in the South, less in the Northeast. Say a dime a kWh, over the 25 year warranty of PV panels is:

$0.10 x 24 x 365 x 25 = $21,900. That's the cost of doing nothing, business as usual. It also assumes no inflation or price increases for 25 years.

The cost of PV is currently price-fixed by a global cartel, and the market is rigged. Every so often somebody writes a book about it, and we have a 30 year track record of those books and magazines reports. A few examples from the past decades:

http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBet...
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbon...
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+So...

Rationally, the cost of PV is somewhat the same as the cost of beer cans and beer bottles, as they are made from the same starting raw materials and go through equally complex industrial machines and processes. Picture beer cans and bottles melted down to a puddle the thickness of a business card. How much materials is that?

Generously, with a fat profit margin built in, that solidified puddle one foot square should cost no more than 30 cents installed on the rooftop and making 12 watts of electricity each bright sunny hour.

That is of course not today's price. Chevron execs bragged that they made retail-ready PV for $1/watt several years ago. That would make that square foot of PV $12 at their manufacturing costs. The difference between $12 and $0.30 is 40 multiples of 30 cents.

There's a transitionary time between $1/watt and 30 cents a dozen. Stern intolerance of delays by corporations who have already delayed it for 30 years will shorten that transition time. The public must inform itself on how PV is made sufficiently to be able to make it if the corporations will not.

It seems terribly bold, but a PV casting furnace is the heart of PV. Seven wheelbarrows of sand processed yesterday becomes four wheelbarrows of sand then becomes 2 wheelbarrows of polycrystal PV cast ingots (12 cubic feet) in one 24 hour day in one furnace. The technology uses three expired-patent public domain processes.

http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Bulk_Sand
http://h2-pv.us/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=4457903
...

Like drug patents that expire, it is natural that the price will crash.

The incentive for businesses to enter the field are the high prices set by the price-fixer cartel. $3/watt PV would be bargains snapped up in today's market. That one day's operation of furnace consuming 7 wheelbarrows of PV can ultimately become 12 cubic feet of polycrystal silicon ingot that is sliced into 600 meters squared of PV cell wafers.

At a wholesale value of $1/watt in today's rigged price structure, one furnace makes $78,000 worth per day of wholesale product with small machinery investments and fairly low materials consumables costs.

Because this operation can happen in small compact spaces, the barriers to entry are few, and many small operations can begin in the not distant future. Even buying electric power for the furnaces at retail rates of 10 cents a kilowatt-hour, the daily power bill to crystalize 720 kilograms of silicon is only $864, to make $78,000 of product per day.

Theoretically extrapolating from these numbers it takes 4,317 furnace-days to make one square mile of PV cell surfaces. That would be twelve years for one furnace alone to make one square mile of PV.

Because the value is high and the price of materials is low the early adopters will profit fast, easily adding on more furnaces, and inspiring others to do likewise. One furnace making $78K gross per day would make $2,340,000 worth of product per month.

A minimal ten year goal would be 5,381 square miles of residential rooftops, every detached home in America.

While trees shade some and others have bad slopes facing the wrong way, just for argument purposes I am projecting the rooftop electric production of the 75,000,000 single family detached homes with average 2,000 square feet of roof surfaces. It comes out to the number above, 5,381 square miles.

If we know that it takes 12 furnace years per mile, we can compute the number of furnaces needed to complete the 5,381 square miles in different lengths of time. All this is 1st approximation and can be refined later for closer numbers.

There are 64,572 furnace years required to roof America in Blue PV. If there are multi-furnace operations, say 5 furnace per plant, then the number of businesses come to 12,915 if you want to complete the job in one year, or 2,583 if you want to complete the job in 5 years, 1,292 if the job takes ten years. That averages 26 factories per state spread over the country.

Each furnace costs like a Lexus, expensive yes, but they pay off fast.

Naturally the price must decrease as the supply increases, so that the last to enter the business do not make the fortunes of the early adopters.

78,000 watts daily production at $1/watt falling to 30 cents a watt, reduces the value per day to $23,400.

By the tail end of the gold rush when PV is a penny a watt in the cast ingot state, the value per day per furnace is $780/day. That's less than the day's electricity used to cost at a dime a kilowatt-hour, but then electricity won't cost that much to people who make PV -- for them it will be practically free. Somewhere before that moment there will be consolidation in the industry and larger operations will buy up or push out smaller players.

As long as there are millions to be made per month from operations not greatly different in scale from a Pizza Hut or dry cleaners, The independents can own the market.

So this is a rightwinger's dream of free-market enterprise, hardly something they can be against unless they are paid to badmouth it.

Here's the facts that you need to arm yourself against phoney argument that America will be in economic chaos.

Assume 2.5 cents/kWh in 2016 from universal PV.

Assume 5,381 square miles of residential rooftops = 75m x 2,000 sq.ft.

Assume each home uses 24 kWh/day, x 365 days x 75m/homes = 657,000,000 kWhs.

Assume all US homes have blue PV rooftops, which costs the same as the cheapest grade of composition asphalt shingles.

Assume 3,613,500,000,000 kilowatt hours total annual electricity production from residential rooftops alone. (75m homes x 2000 sq.ft/home. x 12 watts/sq.ft. x 5.5 peak hours average daily sun x 365/days per year).

https:/cia.gov/ciapublications/factbook/geos/us.html
Electricity - consumption: 3.717 trillion kWh (2004)

Total:  3.717 trillion kWh
Roofs: 3.6135  trillion kWh

These figures have not included the other 30 million housing units in apartment blocks and multifamily structures. Then start roofing the factories, offices, schools, stadiums, car ports over mall parking lots.

The only losers are those who bet on dirty pollution, and that is poetic justice the way it is supposed to be.

What's the cost? Everybody need a new roof anyway every 30 years or so, so 1/3rd is the cost that would have been spent. At 2.5 cents sq.ft. that saves $30,112,500,000 of the cost right off the bat. The balance of costs is $60.225 billion, a couple of month's of Bush-Exxon's Steal Iraq Oil War.

$60 billion divided by 300,000,000 Americans = $200. You pay $200 per person and never see a utility bill for the next 25 years. That's a dollar a day for seven months. Compare that to the $21,900 that the average family would otherwise pay in retail utility rates.

The production figures given, 3.6135  trillion kWh from PV roofs is not only residential. It includes EVERYTHING: all factories, all elevators, all malls, schools, streetlights, military, hospitals, weather radar, everything.

There is no financial collapses, no chaos. Just orderly making, selling, installing PV that creates thousands of brand new jobs. When the buildings are all blue rooftop PV there is ten times that amount of PV needed for the hydrogen side of H2-PV. The H2 part of H2-PV needs to start immediately as the PV part starts because energy storage makes PV more valuable. Without the storage we need carbon-power longer. Maybe put 30 factories per state, 50 factories. There's millions and millions of dollars to be made and people can start reaping the gold without delay.

Global Warming is called off. Make it happen in ten years.

Drop by http:H2-PV.us/wiki to learn more.

http:ecosyn.us PALACES for the People, H2-PV, PV-Breeders acres of PV, tons of Hydrogen

Severe ERROR in CO2 to Make Photovoltaics.

RETRACTION REQUIRED:
"... A photovoltaic panel in Seattle won't save much CO2 (if any) -- the electricity they replace comes from hydroelectric, and a lot of energy and CO2 was expended to manufacture them. ..."

The CARBOTHERMIC REDUCTION PROCESS is used to make metallic grade Silicon from silicon-dioxide. This is, or has been, the dominant purification initial process.

A Seattle-location example used in the article calls for 5 kilowatts of PV electrical production.

64% of all PV is polycrystal silicon, so typically that would be used, having a sun-to-plug-power efficiency of 13%. That equates to 12 watts per square foot of panels. The silicon in 5 kilowatts is divided (5,000 watts/12 = 417 sq.ft. = 39 meters square).

The 39 meters square business-card-thick PV silicon weighs 47 kilograms. The sand, silicon-dioxide, it came from weighed (Si + O2 = (atomic weight 14 + 16 + 16 = 46)) 147 kilograms, of which 100 kilograms was O2.

This 100 kilograms of O2 was carbonized, hence the name CARBOTHERMIC, to CO2 (C + O2 (atomic weight 6 + 16 + 16 = 38)) = 116 kilograms of CO2 = 255 pounds of CO2. At 20 pounds of CO2 released per gallon of gas in likewise chemical processes, we find the equivalent of 13 gallons of gasoline produced purifying out the O2 in SiO2 in the carbothermic process.

A similar process goes into purification of the Alumina to Aluminum purification. (2.Al2O3 = 2.Al + 3.O2) with similar findings.

The actual energies involved in making PV are corporate trade secrets and unlikely to be known to the writer but can be deduced by person not needing to rely on "solar calculators" and actually able to punch numbers in real calculators.

A real-world estimate of of the sum of the processes combined I find to be equivalent in carbon production to about 80 gallons of gasoline burning.

The DOE estimates average vehicle use at 10,000 miles per year, 25 mpg average vehicle mpg. That computes to 400 gallons of gasoline per year.

PV with 25 year warranty production consumes the energy of 10 weeks of normal driving.

Bear in mind additional factors:

(1) PV reduces in cost by 19% every time the installed base increases. This means buying PV maked it cheaper for others to buy PV. This reduction in price has been straight-line since 1979.

(2) As PV becomes cheaper, more of it will be installed, reducing the doubling time, currently 3 years.

(3) As PV becomes more ubiquitous, the power used in making PV is more likely to be produced by PV, thereby reducing the carbon-energy component in PV.

(4)There are non-carbothermic pathways to purification of Silicon and/or Aluminum, which require more cheap abundant power than dirty carbon-energy. Those alternatives are barred by the economics of the present PV pricing, which is very much under the manipulation of price-fixing cartels.

(5) F.U.D., Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt, plays a roll in delaying the doublings in pV installations which bring down the prices and make it more ubiquitous. False and fraudulent statements are regularly inserted in websites and news media by a campaign established decades ago and periodically exposed over 30 years with no prosecutions.

http://ScienceCop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheSunBet...
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=TheCarbon...
http://sciencecop.info/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=Cartel+So...

http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-Globa...
Scientists' Report Documents ExxonMobil's Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science -- Oil Company Spent Nearly $16 Million to Fund Skeptic Groups, Create Confusion

(6) Chevron Executives bragged in public two years ago that they made PV panels at $1/watt retail-ready. Prices of $9/watt on the website calculator are plain evidence of price-fixing cartel.

(7) NREL has projected the price decreases since 1979 to result in $1/watt costs by 2012-2015 time period, and 3 cents/kWh retail electric price to the consumers of that power. This is only delayed by false statements which encourage complacency and inaction through FUD.

(8) PV is made out of the same stuff as beer cans and beer bottles, and it has the same price as beer cans and beer bottles whenever it is made in the same volumes as beer cans and beer bottles.

The natural price of PV is 2.5 cents per watt installed. That price will be reached in ten years.

(9) There are 75,000,000 detached homes in the USA averaging 2,000 sq.ft roofs. Covered in 13% polycrystal cheap-as-dirt PV, these homes can produce every single watt of electricity now produced by all sources of electricity production without one single inch of special PV farm reservation lands.

(10) The technology to do this is not the "Energy of the Future", but is so old that the patents have expired. Like generic drugs, when the patents expire the prices crash. Key patents expired in the past year, enabling everyone in the world to use this public-domain technology without licence or royalty payments. The rules of the game have now changed. Get used to it.

http://H2-PV.US/wiki for more specific details.

(11) One acre of polycrystal PV "mines" the equal to coal of 1 ton every 11.7 peak sunny hours, 182 tons per year, 4,550 tons of coal per 25-year warranty service life if placed in the 9 southwest sunbelt states.

Justify your statements that PV does not displace substantial carbon dioxide in the face of these facts, or publish a retraction.

http:ecosyn.us PALACES for the People, H2-PV, PV-Breeders acres of PV, tons of Hydrogen

PALACES Anywhere

I am interested in this idea in terms of energy efficiency and community building. I think that these do not work in cities in terms of building an environmental ethic or even a community ethic, oftentimes they are 'projects' or really expensive co-op buildings.

The description is backed by a 200 megabyte website describing in great details the concepts. There are 3000 files, images, texts, spreadsheets. They are first and foremost an urban solution. You and 120 of you best friends can take a block and rebuild it into a PALACE. It requires no mass movement -- just one block at a time converted to eco-compatible lifestyles. If you leave it to others to build for you, THEY will tack on big profits and charge you top dollar. If YOU take responsibility, then you can avoid the profit-taking. That may require you to study and learn things you haven't allowed study discipline for yet in your life.

I think these would work fairly well in rural areas/small towns in terms of building ethics and a connection to the community and nature. I can actually speak from experience, since these have worked for me. I think the downside is that these generally tend to not fit in with the zoning laws and traditions of most such localities, they would prefer single- or two-family units. This should change in favor of larger structures for efficiency sake.

Zoning variances are achievable when you have thought through all the arguments, pro and con, and have your answers ready. When all of your energy comes from the sun, and you have no lines out to the grid, you are connected to nature in the city. When all of your water is harvested from rain, you are connected to nature, even in the city, especially if there are no pipes connecting you to the municipal water works. If you can't live off your sun and rain budget, you are spending too much of your life involved in "entertainment" and not nearly enough in getting a full 21st century "education". Older people may need to go back to school for remedial education in lifestyle choices and their consequences.

http:ecosyn.us PALACES for the People, H2-PV, PV-Breeders acres of PV, tons of Hydrogen

Technically Over-Energizing

Technically "Global Warming" is over-energizing. Counting calories is common for diets but it is sensible for planets too. Calories are the metric heat units of energy.

Global Warming is a misnomer -- the actuality is the system does not emit energy to space at the rate energy is gained from space, due to a near-surface invisible blanket of gases.

This causes the biosphere to be pushed "far from equilibrium". When systems are far from equilibrium they create spontaneous structures for energy dissipation. Hurricanes are one such structure, which lifts heat from the surface, brings it ten kilometers high, where the radiation is released above the insulating blanket.

The net effect after major storm events is the system has regained partial equilibrium by releasing massive amounts of heat energy. The seas temperatures may be several degrees cooled, giving a net temperature over time of a lower heat energy level. The "average temperature" may be mild but your city is rubble.

The system then is not warmed or warmer, it is a lower temperature than without the hurricane, giving a false sense of what happened if you only go by temperature readings and averages of temperatures.

The mathematics was developed by Rene Thom as Catastrophe Theory, evolved into Chaos Theory, and Prigogine won the Nobel Prize for explaining Dissipative Structures. It is all very well proved and known.

The system will continue to have gyrations based on locallized hot spots far from equilbrium. These will induce non-linear effects, so that 2 degrees warmer does not mean two extra storms or ten extra mph per storm. if the seas temperatures got ten degrees hotter (celcius) the Hypercanes would be four times stronger than Katrina. You would see 500 mph winds instead of 150 mph winds, except that there would be no mammalian life left to see that if the sea temperatures got ten degrees hotter.

http:ecosyn.us PALACES for the People, H2-PV, PV-Breeders acres of PV, tons of Hydrogen