Comments elbarto has made
Oh, the humanity
The argument that evil latte sipping greenies are starving the worlds poor by denying them GMO's is completely bogus.
Who owns the genes? How many $billions have the Ag science corporations invested in developing and patenting the genes?
Does anyone seriously think that the "kind and benevolent" Ag corps are going to give their technology to poor starving people for nothing?
What a joke!
Think about this; Ag corp X splices in a gene for resistance to virus Y. Virus Y now only affects 1% of crop instead of 20%. Whoops, in a few planting generations, virus Y has now strengthened and again affects 20% of crop. Back to the drawing board for Ag corp. This is a viscious cycle that ensures continued dependence on Ag corp for version 1.X of crop seeds.
If anything, GMOs are going to feed less and less people simply because the technology is more expensive.
The world has enough food. Rich people waste enough food to feed those that don't have enough. That's the real problem.
Want to solve world hunger? - give those poor people some food - then teach them how to grow their own using sustainable permaculture. They can't afford the oil and chemical fertiliser for broad scale monocrops but they have human power.On Study: transgenic soy brings lower yields than conventional posted 1 year, 5 months ago 25 Responses
Hot rock energy is not "renewable"
The average heat flux flowing from the core to the surface is only 0.045 W/m2. Deep rock is only hot because it is well insulated by the earth above it.
Once water is pumped into a deep hot rock formation and the heat is "mined", the resource is depleted and will take a very very long time to reheat from the tiny trickle of heat coming from the core.
A deep geothermal power station requires several cubic miles of deep rock to be fractured to allow increased water permeation and steam flow. A hot formation of several cubic miles will cool to the point where it no longer generation steam of sufficient pressure to run turbines after 5-10 years. The power station then need to be move to a new formation.
I'm not convinced that fracturing and cooling HUGE volumes (several cubic miles per small power station depleted in 5-10 years) deep rock is going to be a sustainable activity. There are so many unforseen dangers, earthquakes, subsidence (even a few inches could destroy a whole city?), draining of aquifers & lakes, etc etc.
Compare the geothermal average heat flux of 0.045 W/m2 to the average global solar flux of 340 W/m2.
One could say "does not compute".The reason deep geothermal is not providing us with Terawatts of cheap clean electricity is that it really can't. Even if it does manage to provide some significant proporation of our energy requirements for a short time - it is "heat mining" and once mined it is gone, at least on a time scale that is meaningful to us.On Geothermal power: a core climate solution posted 1 year, 6 months ago 16 Responses
Welcome to manackermill
With an undying spray of unintelligible gibberish hammered out in a fervent 24-7 typefest from his/her mom's basement, manacker has hijacked this blog.
By sheer mind numbing wordmass this has become all about manacker.
Surely it is time to moderate? On Global temps may drop this year but, alas, world still warming posted 1 year, 7 months ago 132 Responses
March Anomaly
GISS Global Surface Temp Anomaly for March was +0.67ºC (Hadley +0.43ºC). Third hottest March on record. If global warming was over in January, what should we make of March? Is it back on?
Given the warming from Feb to March 2008, ie +0.41ºC over one month, the globe is now warming at 4.9ºC per year. Perhaps this means the January "Ice Age" is now over?
Get out your foil hats, deniers, you'll need them to protect your aura from all those "cosmic rays" that are surely driving this warming trend.On Global temps may drop this year but, alas, world still warming posted 1 year, 7 months ago 132 Responses
Fossil CO2 is "tagged"
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp057/ndp057.htmOn Student charges that textbook downplays climate change posted 1 year, 7 months ago 12 Responses
Asphalts aint asphalts
Asphalt grade varies as to where it is laid. Hot areas require a harder grade in order not to get too soft in the heat of summer and cooler areas a softer grade not to crack in freezing conditions.
Presumably global warming will accelerate the degradation of asphalt roads.
Ok, a minor issue in the scheme of all things but one of the great many adverse confluences likely to surface as a result of peak oil + global warming.
So unless the Feds step in, in seems to me, in a big way, the age of Happy Motoring will start coming to an end because the road system will start to break down.
This isn't the end of society, walkable cities would be happier and healthier in my view.On Solving the climate problem will solve the peak oil problem, too posted 1 year, 8 months ago 37 Responses
GreyFlcn - Peak oil = peak asphalt.
Roads are made from asphalt. No more oil = no more asphalt = no more roads = no more cars.
A very simplistic take on this issue, sure, but there's no denying that even maintaining roads in their current state requires a steady flow of asphalt made from oil.
Asphalt can be recycled but not indefinitely and usually needs to be blended with fresh asphalt.
There really is currently no alternative to asphalt within the current transport paradigm. Merely substituting fossil vehicles with EV's will not escape the need for road maintenance.
We could devote ever increasing expense to keeping our roads and cars paradigm or simply contract settlement and eliminate most car travel at much lower cost.
One is technically infeasible, the other politically infeasible.On Solving the climate problem will solve the peak oil problem, too posted 1 year, 8 months ago 37 Responses
global heat flux
http://geophysics.ou.edu/geomechanics/notes/heatflow/glob ...
This states an average global geothermal heat flux of 0.075 W/meter square.
Sure there's a few hot spots around that have much higher flux but in the end solar dominates.
I'm fairly sure you cant just drill down 10km anywhere on Earth and tap core heat. High flux sites are very limited.
Solar/wind farms wont be the answer either unless there is a massive reduction in energy consumption.
I believe a contraction of settlements plus massive deployment of solar PV might be viable for the long term.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
Power density
It all comes down to energy flux. How much heat per square meter of surface per day flows up from the core compared to that coming from the sun?
We know the solar resource is 250W per square meter of total surface (1000W projected surface) but what is the geothermal heat flow from the core to the surface in W per square meter?
My guess is not very much because if the sun went out the Earth would freeze solid in no time.
W/meter squared might give some indication of which is a better resource solar or geothermal.
A study of heat transfer through a spherical shell might shed some light as to why the geothermal resource might not be that useful.
I could be wrong but think it's fools gold and another pipe dream diversion from what actually needs to be done to secure a clean and reliable energy system for civilisation for future millenia.
Egyptians build pyramids to last for millenia and they actually did. Why can't we look beyond the next few decades and put in place a paradigm that will get us well beyond the next energy crises.
Solar is the only energy source that can realistically provide enough energy for long enough without major planetary modification and creation of dangerous legacies like nuclear, geo, fossil etc all require.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
Fracturing rock might be bad too
Fracturing a whole bunch of deep rock all across the planet might not be such a great idea either.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
Rock and earth are good insulators.
Well here is my understanding. Heat from the core of the Earth is slowly transferred upwards towards the surface. Because of the thickness of the crust and insulating properties of the rock the rate of transfer is low. If it was fast we'd by frying from all that core heat reaching the surface - but we don't. The crust insulates us and the heat reaching the surface is radiated to space in equilibrium with global surface energy balance.
The whole system is in balance, with the amount of heat being lost at the surface balanced by heat slowly flowing up from the core at a constant rate. If we inject water down into hot rocks to create steam, and effectively move heat from the rocks to the surface at a rate greater than the natural equilibrium the rocks will cool because the heat flowing from the core is constant and no longer sufficient to maintain the higher temperature because the heat flow to the surface has increased.
Every time you drill a geothermal well, the rocks will cool and steam production will drop and eventually cease. You then have to move to a new well and repeat. Eventually the old well will reheat when the natural heat balance is restored but I'm not sure how fast this occurs and whether is is practical to drill enough wells so that they can be rotated and whether there is in fact enough heat flow that can be practically exploited on a scale large enough for all of civilisations energy needs.
There are other geothermal resources that produce heat by decay of radioactive species rather than core heat - these are definitely finite.
Solar = ~1000W per projected square meter at the surface forever. I think geothermal power density is much lower and therefore less abundant and more difficult exploit than is immediately obvious.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
Geothermal resource is finite
Hot rocks might sound good but they are not renewable, the resources will deplete.
The sun is the only permanent energy source. At some point in time it will be the only energy source reliably available, and what are fossil fuels but stored sunlight?
Furthermore, the nuclear resource is grossly overstated by nuclear huggers. There might be enough uranium for "thousands of years", but how much of the planets surface needs to be overturned to get at it?
Solar and it's manifestation as wind/wave/hydro/biomass is the only millenial energy source. Everything else will be depleted within the blink of a geolocical eye.
On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 ResponsesSolid state heat storage
One of the more promising concepts for heat storage is solid mass heat storage.
Steam pipes are embedded in a large insulated mass of an inexpensive solid material like concrete.
Excess steam generated while the sun is shining heats the concrete to 300-400ºC. At night, or low insolation water or heat transfer oil is pumped through the concrete blocks to generate steam to run the turbines.
Concrete has a reasonably high volumetric heat capacity so it can store large amounts of energy in a relatively small space. There is some info here: concrete storage
Concerns about high pressure steam are unfounded. Most steam turbines run at 6000 kPa (880 psi) / 400ºC which means there are thousands of conventional power plants with 1000's of km of piping running under these conditions.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
Don't wait for technology
If we wait for the "technology breakthrough" before massive deployment of renewable energy it will be too late.
The technology available off the shelf right now does a decent job. Wide scale deployment of current technology will drive economies of scale, competition and inevitable technology improvements.
Take any other technology that has emerged, there has always been a gradual incremental improvement, not step changes. It can't proceed any other way and is really just an extension of evolution / natural selection.
Imagine if people looked at the Wright brothers aeroplane and said "no way that thing is hopeless I'm waiting for a 747". With that attitude there would have never been a 747...
At my last house I had a boring "old tech" 1 kW solar PV grid connect system. It generated about the same kWh as I consumed. In the city I live the system produced peak power coincident with peak demand such that if all the homes in the city had a similar system it would eliminate a coal power station or two. Contrary to misconceptions the system would still produce resonable kWh on very cloudy / rainy days.
The issue of intermittency could easliy be solved with a combination of solar / wind, a variety of distributed storage technologies like pumped hydro, battery banks, compressed air etc and generally wasting less energy.
Imagine a new paradigm - It's been cloudy so there's less energy in the smart grid so if I wan't to turn on all the lights in my house I have to buy power from someone who is willing to turn them all off and so on.
We've sequenced the human genome, transplanted organs, put man on the moon blah blah. But we can never ever harness the 6000 times more solar power hitting the earth than the total human power consumption? Puhlease, doing this should be friggin' easy.On Cost of solar cells may be driven down dramatically posted 1 year, 8 months ago 36 Responses
CCS education
For a definitive summary of the technology:
IPCC Special ReportIn the main, CCS is putting gas in the ground. A lot of gas. It will never, ever be viable on a useful scale here's why:
In summary, the sequestration of carbon dioxide produced every year by the burning of coal would require roughly the same volume of material to be moved as all of the earth moved by humans in same time period based on the following calculations:
http://gristmill.grist.org/comments/2007/11/5/0113/48638/ ...
Ok I'm quoting myself here but I stand by those numbers. Way way way way too much gas to deal with.On The blind alley of more coal posted 1 year, 8 months ago 19 Responses
Cars a delusion...
Surely our delusional and unflinching white-knuckled attachment to a form of personal transport that involves hauling 2tonnes of metal to move a 0.08tonne person is a massive hurdle to adapting to the energy (&climate) crisis approaching.
However a car is fuelled; petroleum, coal electricity, mono crop ethanol/biodiesel, renewable electricty it is still an incredibly inefficient mode of transport. At best 2-3% of the energy consumed goes into actually moving the person and the rest is spent moving metal and creating heat. In the near future we won't be able to afford to waste energy so profligately - it will be needed for food production.
I believe that cars used for primary personal transport is a dead concept. Settlement needs to contract and folks need to get back to walking and cycling.
This is probably a disturbingly low tech solution for most folks but we will need to mostly abandon cars to cope with what is coming (already here?). The reality is there will not be a technological solution.
The motto for the future is "Contract and Conserve". Flame on.
On Electric cars could impact water supplies, says analysis posted 1 year, 8 months ago 18 Responses
Economists, our saviours!
So what do the mighty Economists propose to do about the looming crises of catastrophic global heating + peak oil = collapsing civilisation?
On easter island, the Economists (chiefs, wise men, whatever) proposed building ever bigger Moai. That really helped didn't it? You'd have to assume that some of the people on Easter Island were saying "hey maybe we should stop cutting down all these trees to build Moai because we need those tree for boat building etc." - they were probably run through with spears.
It seems like a simplistic argument but if you compare the basic elements of what happened on Easter Island and what is happening on Earth now how is it really any different? The Earth is a finite island, we keep cutting down trees and the only solution presented to us by the wise men and high priests is to increase the rate at which we cut down trees. (Tree cutting being an analogy for any irreversable depletion of resources).
I ask the economists; "How long can economic growth continue through the production of evermore widgets which require the finite resources of this planet?"On A few thoughts for environmentalists posted 1 year, 8 months ago 95 Responses
The mining mindset is the problem
The GAB is but one example. Civilisation is mining the Earth. There is nary a single activity that humans do that is not simply "mining" an available resource. On Lessons the United States can learn from the drought in Australia posted 1 year, 9 months ago 6 Responses
Water use in Brisbane, Australia
In my city, personal water use is capped at 140 litres per day. This is basically half the personal water consumption before water restrictions.
When the water restrictions came in to force people recognised the need to conserve water and dutifully complied. Life went on basically unchanged except for a few minor behavioral changes to conserve water eg they stopping compulsively watering lawns that didn't actually need to be watered.
The water restrictions spawned a new water harvesting industry and now many homes have water tanks to collect rainwater for clothes washing and toilet flushing, further conserving precious drinking water.
Why not cap energy use in a similar manner? The water restrictions have shown that the sky didn't fall in and that people can adapt very quickly with a minimum of pain and create new industries at the same time.On Lessons the United States can learn from the drought in Australia posted 1 year, 9 months ago 6 Responses
Contraction, not infrastructure is the key.
The objective of a transportation device is to move people and sometimes objects possesed / required by those people from point A to point B.
Every form of transport except walking and cycling uses far more energy to simply move the transportation device than to achieve its objective.
A single occupant car uses approximately 0.5% of the energy contained in the fuel to move the occupant from A to B. ~20% is used to move the car and the rest goes out the tailpipe as hot gas. I don't have numbers for trains and buses but they won't be orders of magnitude better than cars.
In my view, mechanized transport should be largely abandoned. It's very energy inefficient in achieving it's objective.
A properly designed city could comfortably house all of it's people in 1/20th of it's area.
Tear up the burbs and all that dead asphalt and convert it to farmland. Ban all motorised traffic within 2 miles of the CBD. Rip up the asphalt, turn it into green space.
In this city folks don't need expensive energy intensive transport infrastructure (not even trains or buses) to get to work. They walk or cycle from their zero carbon buildings.
In fact in such a city almost anything that people need or want could be obtained within a 20 minute walk. For bulky items like a sofa or fridge, people would use an electric taxi-cart even a pedal powered towing service.
Sure, for extra-city and intercity transport you needs trains etc. But intercity transport is only a small fraction of most people lives so it can be done sustainably.
We have become energy dinosaurs:
http://edro.wordpress.com/energy-dinosaurs/
kooky site, but makes a good point about energy use.On The next generation of infrastructure should help more Americans go carless posted 1 year, 9 months ago 14 Responses
No need to char Pangolin?
Doesn't compost do the same thing? Take organic matter, livestock manure, lawn clippings, sugar cane slash, corn stalks whatever and spread it on the ground. Soil fauna like earthworms break it down further, worm poo becomes carbon in live soil microbes.
Dead soil becomes live again.
In any case, it's not difficult.
On Two solutions to global warming posted 1 year, 9 months ago 11 ResponsesSurely No.1 is a joke?
The products of plastic decomposition in the oceans and on land are poisons. As with most geoengineering proposals the cure is worse than the disease. You cannot be serious about dumping more crap in the oceans??
If the issue was to be solved properly then I believe the following needs to happen:
- Abandon fossil fuel energy now for solar and its derivatives (wind / wave)
- Convert all farming to biodynamic permaculture.
- Stop deforestation, reforest/ regrass deserts by irrigating with solar/wind desalinated water. A desert is a failed forest / savanah.
Control carbon, control climate. Humans now control carbon. On Two solutions to global warming posted 1 year, 9 months ago 11 Responses
- Abandon fossil fuel energy now for solar and its derivatives (wind / wave)
Relocalisation
What is stopping us from getting goats and sheep to "mow" the vast swathes of suburban lawns instead of noisy petrol powered lawnmowers. Milk and meat at your door step and they fertilize for free.
In bizarro world I would be an urban goat herder.On With wheat stocks at all-time lows, a fertilizer magnate utters the F-word posted 1 year, 9 months ago 28 Responses
Yes we are vikings
Australia is a perfect modern example of viking thinking.
The modern colonisers (invaders) from Europe brought European crops, animals and farming methods to an environment utterly unsuitable to them.
Europe - rich soils reliable rain, temperate climate.
Australia - poor soils semi arid desert el nino / la nina flood / drought cycle.
Australia is the driest continent on earth and also has some of the poorest and oldest soils. Our agribusiness farming practices are basically soil mining. Natural bushland is cleared for sheep / cattle grazing and wheat. The land is intensively agribusiness farmed for a few seasons until the soil is mined of nutrients and ruined by salinity and the process repeated on newly cleared land.
This process is rapidly killing vast areas of what was a healthy natural ecosystem.
I don't really know what the answer is. One thing I do know is that Australia is not a great place to raise hoofed animals - sheep and cattle grind up fragile soils underfoot and create deserts. These animals are also poorly adapted to harsh conditions and are often mass culled in times of drought.
Kangaroos are superbly adapted to the local environment and have soft feet which don't destroy the soil. They can survive extreme heat and drought and eat local plant species. They could be 'harvested' sustainably and become a staple provided that their natural habitat was restored and meat consumption dropped by 80% to a realistic level.
We could also look at native species of legume / grains that can survive harsh conditions.
The overall point I'm trying to make is that a global uniform monocrop of soy, wheat, cattle, corn, cotton, sugar cane is destined to collapse. We need a return to local species and biodiverse farming.
Evolution is the greatest agricultural scientist, it created perfectly adapted crops for every region. Why do humans arrogantly think they can do better than what evolution had a few billion years to perfect? On With wheat stocks at all-time lows, a fertilizer magnate utters the F-word posted 1 year, 9 months ago 28 Responses
Dimmable CFLs are available
Someone posted that they are looking for dimmable CFLs. They are available here: http://www.environmentshop.com.au/Products.asp?CID=121&am ...
They are Australian 240V not US 110V so maybe not much good to most Gristers but they are available. I'm sure they could be found in the US.At AUS $30 they are expensive but I bought 6 of them anyway. They work very well, but you may also need to replace your dimmer switches to a "low noise" type if you have old dimmer switches otherwise they may flicker when dimmed.
I can't tell the difference between the light from these CFLs and regular incandescents, except when fully dimmed the light has a slight pink tinge - which isn't actually unpleasant for mood lighting.
Using these lights and a number of other energy efficiency measures has enabled me to reduce my daily electricity use down to 3.9 kWh/day which is less than my grid connected solar panels put out on average.
I'd hazard a guess that in 5 years time dimmable CFLs will be the norm and go for $5 in your local supermarket.On Have you been naughty with your light bulbs? You need some good old command and control. posted 1 year, 9 months ago 33 Responses
Greyflcn - We can't mine forever
That just opens up the whole can of worms about (un)sustainable mining. We can't mine forever, eventually the loop must be closed if we wish to preserve any of the remaining natural landscapes. Even if it is just "useless scrubland".
I think the original post misses the fact that most of the damage done(notwithstanding a Chernobyl) to the environment by nuclear power is through the mining of the fuel. Uranium mining is especially damaging because the yellowcake is at such a low concentration the mines have to be massive and it literally requires mountains to be moved.
It's all too easy to forget that running a suburban nuke plant requires a massive hole in the ground somewhere else. Most mines are irreversible. The land can never be remediated on meaningful time scale.
Getting really off topic you may want to read this excellent post relating to "peak minerals": http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3451
Peak everything is coming...On Nuclear power and fossil fuels face water crises and other problems posted 1 year, 9 months ago 40 Responses
Nuclear wasteland
Aerial pictures of worlds largest uranium mine.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200705/r140801_484774.jpg
http://www.uic.com.au/graphics/OlympicDamaerial.gifLike most mines this place is a wasteland. It's hard to get a sense of the scale of it but if you can't see any cars in the picture it's because they're too small. This mine is currently an underground operation, when it goes open cut, the pit will swallow this little site like a crumb.
The tailings dams containing low-level waste already stretch for miles and the whole operation sucks several megalitres a day from precious aquifers.
Does anyone seriously think nuclear is a clean green future when this is what has to be done to the Earth to get the fuel? Mines like this are practically irreversible they leave a toxic scar that nature will take millenia to regenerate if ever.
Contrast the mine with wind turbines built on farmland:
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200707/r159961_584192.jpg
Farming and power generation co-exist, the farmer get extra income for leasing his land and the turbines are ever taken down you'd never even know they were there.On Nuclear power and fossil fuels face water crises and other problems posted 1 year, 9 months ago 40 ResponsesWindmills far less damaging than coal.
The energy generated by a large wind turbine over 30 years is roughly equivalent to 200,000 tonnes of coal.
If this coal came from a mountain top removal mine or open cut, a section of land 150 meters (500ft) square by 10 meters (33ft) deep would have to be completely destroyed, rendered useless probably forever. Add to this all the CO2, produced contaminated water etc.
Conversely, land immediately adjacent a wind turbine can be used for agriculture or left largely intact. Wind farms are generally sited on already developed land so they are close to the grid and construction costs are minimised.
Habitat destruction by open cut coal mining will kill more birds than wind turbines ever will.
Wind farms are far less damaging than coal mining even if you don't count CO2 emissions.On British military may obstruct planned wind farms due to radar fears posted 1 year, 9 months ago 5 Responses
Slaughterhouse fun
"I walked into the slaughterhouse once again and this time three bullocks were waiting to die. I put on the white coat, hat and boots and waited in the office until the Meat Hygiene Inspector came in and said, 'They're ready for you now'."I followed him in and there was the first bullock waiting in the crush. His face was filled with panic and fear as the bar was pressed down hard across his neck. The stun operator walked round and put the gun to his head and there was a bang. The body which had been so full of life fell to the floor. It seemed to take far too long to shackle him up and hoist him round to the slaughterman.
"The other guys who worked there laughed and joked as the slaughterman plunged the knife in and blood splattered everywhere.
"I'll never forget the third bullock, he was terrified and he struggled to get out of the crush. He could see the other two bullocks hoisted up with blood gushing from their throats and he cried out in terror.
"The bar was repeatedly held down on his neck but there was no way he was giving up the right to his life without a fight. The guy with the gun put it to his head but the gun didn't seem to work right and although he fell to the floor he kicked and cried out. Then he moaned and I knew he had not been stunned properly.
"Blood was all over the floor from the other two bullocks and one was actually having his head cut off. The third bullock was eventually hoisted and his throat was cut and I was splattered with hot blood."
http://www.viva.org.uk/campaigns/slaughter/std1.htm
Factory meat production. Not only is it exceptionally cruel to the animals, but utterly degrading to the human beings who work in the system.
How many people would eat meat if they had to slaughter and butcher the animal themselves? It's all too easy to do by proxy.On In case you'd forgotten, industrial meat is a friggin' nightmare posted 1 year, 10 months ago 46 Responses
Highly recommended reading.
Forward this to everyone you know. In my view it is basically an operating manual for 21st century civilisation.
On Book shows we can meet hard targets in stopping climate change posted 1 year, 10 months ago 7 Responses
A couple more...
the economy. wholly owned subsidiary. of environment
the greenest product is none at allOn Here's your chance to be the Pollan of climate change posted 1 year, 10 months ago 94 Responses
all we ever needed is...
the sun. endless fusion power. harness it.On Here's your chance to be the Pollan of climate change posted 1 year, 10 months ago 94 Responses
Human nature wont help.
Good post.
I don't think even the most rampant deniers will argue that obesity is not bad for peoples health and significantly reduces quality and length of life.
It is clear that people won't change to save their own lives in the face of unequivocal evidence that their behaviour is leading them to an early death or at least ongoing misery of heart operations and realiance on drug cocktails to stay alive.
So how likely is that people will change to protect themselves (or little brown people in a country which they've never heard of) from something that is generally perceived to be uncertain and of little actual threat to their own personal wellbeing?On The parallels between accepting obesity and ignoring global warming posted 1 year, 10 months ago 71 Responses
The greenest product is none at all.
99% of cleaning products are completely unnecessary for our day to day lives. Clean your toilet with water and a brush and flush twice. It will probably be far cleaner and safer than a public telephone handset or any surface in a hospital.On The latest green partnership posted 1 year, 10 months ago 7 Responses
Scary stuff
I wonder what it is with human nature that prevents the majority of people from even remotely considering the very real prospect of total anihilation?
Maybe such arguments will turn out to be unfounded doomsaying and somehow we'll collectively navigate a path through the coming crises. But to ignore a scenario that has a significant statistical probabilty is just bad risk management. On Is it only OK to talk about limiting population after it's too late? posted 1 year, 11 months ago 117 Responses
Priorities indeed.
I'd like to see more detailed modelling than my basic figurin's but I am struggling to escape the conclusion that:
The overall wellbeing of human civilisation in 2050 would better if we do little about climate change but cap population to 6 billion than if we go carbon neutral but let population rise to 9 billion...
Neither scenario will be comfortable. Both lead to severe shortages of food and drastic declines in standard of living.
To speak the unspeakable we need immediate caps on births AND rapidly declining emissions in order to maintain anything near our current standard of living in future.On Is it only OK to talk about limiting population after it's too late? posted 1 year, 11 months ago 117 Responses
Climate change is a side issue.
Zacaroni I agree:
For arguments sake let's say climate change creates droughts and floods which cut global food production by 20% by 2050. Surely this will be a disaster as a majority of the world's people already find it difficult to get enough food and other essential resources?
Now lets say climate change doesn't happen and global food production is not impacted in 2050. By this time the world population will have increased 50% to 9 billion. That means current food production for 6 billion people now needs to be distributed to 9 billion people. This is a food availability decrease of 33%. Worse than climate change with population levelled at 6 billion.
Ok the numbers are probably rough, but my argument is that population growth alone will be worse than climate change.
I don't think that anyone can seriously argue that food production (and availabilty of other resources) will increase in proportion to population. Everything is in decline NOW just look at world grain stocks or world fisheries.
Population growth is an asteriod on course for Earth. Climate change will merely hasten the impact.
On Is it only OK to talk about limiting population after it's too late? posted 1 year, 11 months ago 117 ResponsesEconomics is perverse and ultimately useless.
It is economically rational to cause the extinction of myriad species because the cost of preventing such extinctions is greater than the benefit received by causing such extinctions.
Case in point: The critically endangered greater striped toowit (for arguments sake) has one habitat left which just so happens to be atop a rich mineral deposit. It is economically rational to exploit the mineral deposit effectively killing the the last of the toowits. Toowits provide no economic or any other tangible benefits to humans.
To broaden that argument; economic rationalisation argues that we should not spend too much money on mitigating climate change because the cost is greater than the benefit. This argument almost certainly allows additional climate change to what would occur if by some miracle humanity embarked on a massively costly mission to clean up its act overnight.
The economically rational additional climate change will almost certainly condemn many more species to extinction than would the massive effort to mitigate.
It is economically responsible for humans to commit SPECICIDE.
I find this completely peverse.
Ultimately the entrenched economic model will fail as critical species interconnections collapse and the global ecosystem unravels.On Cato's Jerry Taylor responds to Michael Tobis posted 1 year, 11 months ago 131 Responses
Some mechanisation still required.
I'm not a farmer either, I'm embarking on the urban experiment now. I already grow about half the herbs I use, and all the lettuce I can use. Also tomatoes, strawberries etc. Not much now but it's a start. It's the kind of thing that I think will slowly creep in and then become common place as in Cuba (minus the socialist oppression I hope!)
For urban agriculture to work my guess is that it would require between one in four and one in ten people to be farmers. Those people not farming would directly support the farmer to produce their food and perhaps devote a portion of their suburban land.
We might still need some broadscale ag with mechanisation for grain production. This could be done more or less the convential way, powering small tractors with fuel produced only from ag waste or maybe compressed air generated by wind power??
Moving fruit and veg production into suburban areas would then contract grain production to higher yeilding land clsoer to cities so that less fuel per tonne of grain would be required.
For those in high rise cities like NY there are the collective farms where you devote two weeks a year of your time to working on a farm that supports a few thousand people. You get your everyday urban life, but also return to nature once a year to remember where food comes from!
The sad thing is that all of this is possible will only a tiny dose of social collectivism and spending a slightly higher proportion of income on food. It may turn out that urbanites have become too lazy to bother averting total ecosystem failureOn What a fossil-fuel free agriculture might look like posted 1 year, 11 months ago 68 Responses
Urban farming cont.
www.diggers.com.au
This is all about producing an entire families fruit and vegetables from a single back yard plot using heirloom varieties and biodynamic methods.
For all our technological advances it may be that we need to return ox driven ag. Unless we develop a tractor that can feed itself on grass, produce great fertiliser, grow new offspring and be eaten and turned into clothing at the end of it's life.On What a fossil-fuel free agriculture might look like posted 1 year, 11 months ago 68 Responses
Cryptic comments GRLCowan...
I'm assuming you're alluding to some wild far off technology that doesn't currently exist and may never? Or maybe you mean clean coal is no coal? Please elaborate.
Right now, and for the forseeable future clean coal means sequestration. I've not seen other technologies seriously proposed or technically feasible on the required scale. Here's what some scientist guys say about it: http://arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS-final/ ...
It is currently technologically possible and is being done on a very small scale. That doesn't mean it's a good idea, it's not. But it is real, not imaginary.
It's way easier and cheaper just to burn a lot less coal and start replacing it with renewables plus storage. This is available now, no tech miracle required, just a bit of effort and about the cost of a pack of smokes per person per day.On Why clean coal is so darn appealing posted 1 year, 11 months ago 37 Responses
Bring down the fences.
My vision is that backyard fences in suburbia will fall and unproductive lawns and roadsides will become vegetable gardens and grazing land for chickens and goats (kangaroos where I live!).
In many cities, enough rainwater could be collected from suburban roofs to provide water for crop growing / drinking. And of course the same roofs would generate power and heat water.
Waste water would be recycled on site and treated to become fertilizer.
In many cases, cities and urban sprawl is built over what would be the most productive farmland. Why not live amoungst it?
For everything that is bad in Cuba, they are already doing what I mentioned: http://bss.sfsu.edu/raquelrp/pub/2000_aug_pub.html On What a fossil-fuel free agriculture might look like posted 1 year, 11 months ago 68 Responses
Kill all biofuel
Except that produced from waste.
Biofuels are far worse than coal, as others have posted they steal food from the mouths of the poor to put fuel in the tanks of the rich.
I've posted before that biofuel is 30-100 times LESS efficient (100 more likely) at converting sunlight into useful energy when compared to solar thermal power generation: http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/11/23/10445/828/#17 ...
The best location for solar power generation is hot deserts where food doesn't grow, the best location for biofuels are also the best locations for food crops.
There is no doubt that little brown people will starve so fat rich white people can keep on taking 2 tonnes of metal with them EVERYWHERE THEY GO.
Biofuel is murder.On The neverending debate on corn ethanol continues posted 1 year, 11 months ago 20 Responses
Clean coal numbers game
I've posted in detail on this before:
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/11/5/0113/48638/#1If anyone thinks clean coal is a solution then they need to consider the numbers. Carbon dioxide sequestration requires us to move and "bury" 11 cubic kilometres of liquid CO2 a year. By my rough estimations, this is equivalent in volume to all the earth moved by humans each year.
Note that 11 cubic kilometres is a cube 2.2km x 2.2km x 2.2km (1.4mi x 1.4mi x 1.4mi)...Also note that I haven't included the 25-40% extra coal that would need to be mined and burned to provide enough additional power for the CO2 sequestration.
Imagine the network of trucks and ships (running on oil), pipelines, compressors and other plant needed to move that volume of material every year.
Words can't describe how big and stupid an undertaking this is. It will never happen.On Why clean coal is so darn appealing posted 1 year, 11 months ago 37 Responses
3rd Warmest?
According to the latest NCDC report, the year to date jan-oct is the third warmest. This year is so far only 0.04 degC lower than the record of 2005.
Furthermore the Northern Hemisphere land and land/ocean temperatures were the hottest on record when comparing the jan-oct period.
The Southern Hemisphere was cooler due to La Nina I think. The next El Nino will probably see all records fall.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/oct/glo ...On 2007 likely to be sixth warmest year on record, say researchers posted 2 years ago 1 Response
Cannibalism...
Is what Easter Islanders resorted to in their last miserable days.
I think Hansens use of the Holocaust analogy is fair. It is one of the few metaphors that can describe the depths of animalistic savagery that humans will be forced into during global collapse.
Perhaps there is already evidence of climate change induced genocide. Jared Diamond postulates in his book "Collapse" that one of the underlying causes of the recent Rwandan genocide was increasing drought and population pressures leading to one ethnic group believing it was more deserving of dwindling food and water and subsequently removing half a million of competition by hacking them to death with machetes.
To take the analogy further, similar to the Jews of eastern Europe, it is little brown people in far off lands that will suffer while the west stands by denying, procrastinating.
Poor brown people in countries no one has heard of will consider killing their neighbors to grab some more land on which to scratch out their miserable existence for a few more years. Poor brown people will be exterminated in hundreds of thousands by increasing cycles of flood and drought that is if they are not swallowed by the incoming tide.
Rich white people will debate whether they should be driving electric or hydrogen powered luxury cars. Rich white people will debate whether eliminating coal will cause them to lose 1% of their multimillion dollar retirement fund.
If the global catastrophe plays out as seems increasingly likely, why should the people causing the damage not be held liable? It's not as if people like Hansen haven't been screaming the warnings...
On Is the analogy between climate change and Hitler's atrocities appropriate? posted 2 years ago 49 ResponsesBiofuels are stupid
I have read that photosynthesis is at best 6% efficient. That is, plants convert 6% of the suns energy incident on them into plant material.
Only a small fraction of the plant material is usable to make biofuel; Sugar for alcohols or oils from seeds etc to make biodiesel. So this probably drops the overall efficiency to 0.6% (I'm guessing).
Even if ethanol can be made from the entire plant structure (cellulosic ethanol) the pathetic 6% efficiency remains. It's probably much less factoring the conversion to ethanol...An overall efficiency 3% is probably optimistic.
Concentrating solar thermal / photovoltaic efficiency is approaching 30% conversion of incident solar radiation to electrical power. Storage in batteries and conversion to kinetic energy for electric vehicles is what, 50-60% efficient?
So here's the comparison for 100 units of solar radiation:
Concentrating solar power delivers 30 units of electricity, these 30 units then convert to 15 units of movement in an electric vehicle.
Photosynthesis delivers 6 units of energy stored in plant material. Converting usuable oil/sugar to biofuel delivers 0.6 units. Burning this biofuel in a 20% efficient internal combustion engine delivers a final 0.12 units of movement in a biofuel powered vehicle. At best cellulosic ethanol might delivers 0.6 units in a biofuel vehicle.
These calculations are pretty rough, can someone prove that making biofuel to move a vehicle from A to B is not incredibly stupid when compared to electricity generated from solar power?
How much more stupid does it sound when biofuel crops require a bunch of water and presumably must displace food production - concentrating solar power requires neither.
Biofuel from waste is great, but diverting farmland from food production to auto fuel production is a crime against humanity.On An alternative view on biofuels, from a Briton in Sudan posted 2 years ago 19 Responses
Peak Everything...
...beyond which, everything sets into abrupt, permanent and irreversible decline; the Global Collapse.On Jeremy Carl argues that coal will be with us for a long while posted 2 years ago 43 Responses
The existential question.
Replying to odograph-
I'm defining growth as the growth in consumption of everything: energy, water, trees, fish, cows, steel, corn, whatever.
The world's population is increasing exponentially and each individual person is striving to achieve a first world standard of living which currently necessitates a profligate consumption of resources. This drives consumption at an even greater rate than population increase.
For me, consumption of coal (and other fossils) is just one small part of the equation and I'm beginning to form the view that it receives disproportionate attention.
Put it this way; lets say we could wave a magic wand and overnight all of humanity was using renewable energy for all processes. What then? Business as usual? Continue strip mining the ocean for fish, strip mining the land for cattle grazing, strip mining the land for metals, on and on.
Replacing all fossil fuels with renewables without stopping (or more likely reversing) consumption of everything else might buy civilisation a few decades.
How likely is it that people will accept the necessary paradigm shift to reverse consumption and live in a manner that only takes things from the Earth at the rate they are replaced by nature?
Do we choose to live indefinitely, at least until the sun starts to die. Or do we burn out in a blaze of glory in a few centuries? In my opinion that question moots all these micro issues like coal etc.
I accept the argument that if we don't stop buring fossils soon we might have our growth sharply curbed for us. But transitioning to renewables is a much easier problem to solve than our propensity to build ever larger castles and monuments so we can bask in our own ingenuity.
I'm still hoping for a future in which human civilisation is almost indistinguishable from nature, yet possesses technology, ability and knowledge far beyond anything we might imagine today.On Jeremy Carl argues that coal will be with us for a long while posted 2 years ago 43 Responses
Civilisation has 200 years, tops.
Our basic way of life and economic model presumes growth, we can't grow for much longer. How will any government sell zero growth (=economic recession) or possibly negative growth as what is required to prevent global catastrophe?
http://consumptiongrowth101.com/ConsumptionGrowth101text. ...
A lengthy thought experiment. Can anyone refute the arguments? On Jeremy Carl argues that coal will be with us for a long while posted 2 years ago 43 Responses
But there's always air cooling, they'll say
All steam generating (coal, nuke, gas) plants need cooling to condense the steam after it has passed through the turbines. Generally water is consumed in an evaporative cooling tower - the familiar tall concrete funnel you see attached to coal or nuke plants.
Cooling can easily be achieved without water - using air cooled heat exchangers. There is no technical problem with that, it is proven technology.
As a chemical engineer involved in the design & construction of large industrial plants I can tell you that clients and managers cringe at the mention of air cooling.
Air cooled heat exchangers are hugely expensive. If air cooling is the only option available it can sometimes put the capital cost of a project in doubt, especially for plants that need a lot of cooling (read steam generating power plant).
This is exactly why you don't see many large power plants with air cooling - it simply puts the economics of the project in doubt.
Heat can also be rejected from a power station into the sea or a river by circulating that water through heat exchangers and returning it to the source without consuming it by evaporation. This generally costs much more than evaporative cooling towers as it requires more expensive heat exchangers made from stainless steel etc. If capital cost doesn't kill this option, environmental regulations for how hot water can be returned to a river or bay probably will.
The great irony here is that the "free market" will generally kill a proposal for a new power station if it needs to be air cooled. Unless of course it gets subsidised by the government. Which is exactly what will happen to keep the coal barons happy.
On Coal plants, like nuclear, suck up lots of water during operation posted 2 years ago 3 Responsesmmmm, Asbestos.
Silicate mineralisations (serpentine) contain chrysotile asbestos and often other types of even more dangerous asbestos.
Sooo...We should start mining billions of tonnes of asbestos so we can maintain our addiction to coal?On A guest essay from Peter Montague raises questions about the rush to sequestration posted 2 years ago 12 Responses
Clean Coal, A Dirty Lie
I've been running some rough numbers for my own interest to understand whether clean coal is a reality or not.
In summary, the sequestration of carbon dioxide produced every year by the burning of coal would require roughly the same volume of material to be moved as all of the earth moved by humans in same time period based on the following calculations:
Total world annual carbon dioxide production from from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels ammounted to 28.2 billion metric tonnes in 2005. Of this, 40.3% or 11.4 billion metric tonnes (11,400 billion kilograms) was carbon dioxide production from the burning of coal. DATA SOURCE: http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/overview.html
The conditions under which carbon dioxide would be sequestered, either in ocean trenches, deep caverns, porous rock resevoirs etc would vary somewhat. However assuming it is liquified and stored at a temperature of 0ºC / 32F and a pressure of 200 atmospheres / 2940 psi it would have a density of 1050 kg/m3 (kilograms per cubic meter). This is slightly more dense than water at 1000 kg/m3.
Therefore, the volume of liquid carbon dioxide that would need to be buried every year is equal to (11,400 billion kg) ÷ (1050 kg/m3) = 10.9 billion m3. This is is 10.8 km3 (cubic kilometers).
To visualise, 10.8 km3 is a cube 2.2 km high x 2.2 km wide x 2.2 km deep. (1.4mi x 1.4mi x 1.4mi if you prefer miles).
So, for carbon capture and storage to work, an almost incomprehensible volume of material needs to be buried/pumped deep underground every year.
To put this in perspective:
- World annual coal production is about 5 billion metric tonnes (http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=1 ...). This equates to roughly 4 km3
- World annual total ore mined in all mining operations is 17 billion tonnes (http://www.mining-journal.com/html/Mining_Explained.html).
- World annual total earth moved (for mining and construction etc,etc) is estimated at 30-35 billion tonnes (http://www.climatechange.umaine.edu/Research/Contrib/html ...).
For me, this puts things in a perspective that much easier to visualise than economic models talking about $/t or $kW/h costs. When I look at the gargantuan scale of operation required, I think clean coal is a big lie from a dying industry. Renewables and efficiency improvement will beat it on cost and effort and carry far less risk - ie there's no guarantee that the CO2 stays buried for the length of time required even if it could be done.On 'Clean coal' proposals are getting canceled right and left posted 2 years ago 1 Response
- World annual coal production is about 5 billion metric tonnes (http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=1 ...). This equates to roughly 4 km3
Plutonium - friend of the Earth and saviour of all
Yes of course, because the world needs more plutonium.
So you have absolutely no objection to India, China, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Syria, North Korea all having dozens of breeders for "the peaceful production of plutonium". Afterall, how could you deny these states the basic human right of "climate friendly and earth saving" energy production?
After 50+ years of nuclear industry a safe, and reliable breeder reactor doesn't exist. The ones that do exist were built solely for the production of weapons grade plutonium and were horrendously expensive to build and operate.
The argument stands. As of this instant, there is nowhere to put the thousands of tonnes of high level waste current sitting in "sealed" drums of questionable long term integrity. It remains to be seen if long term nuclear waste storage will ever be possible. We will need to wait 10,000 years to see if what we do in the near future was in fact, a good idea.
Happy Breeding...On Nuclear plants require lots of water in an increasingly dry world posted 2 years ago 28 Responses
Waste
Where will all you neo-con nuclear hugger nutbags put the waste from 1000 new nuclear plants? After 50+ years of nuclear industry there is still no safe and permanent way of disposing the waste. It just piles up in temporary repositories.
Of course one solution being trialled is to make bullets out of depleted uranium and pump it into Iraqis. But we all know how well that's going don't we?On Nuclear plants require lots of water in an increasingly dry world posted 2 years, 1 month ago 28 Responses
Urban sprawl is not just about cars.
Cars are only a small part of the urban sprawl equation. Urban sprawl requires a massive and unsustainable quantity of resources to build and maintain - concrete, steel, timber, asphalt, copper, aluminium, bricks etc etc. All of these materials require massive amounts of fossil fuel energy to produce.
The more expensive oil becomes, the more expensive the materials. People may well be able to bear the increased cost of fuel by using increasingly more fuel efficient vehicles, however what happens when all of the basic building materials double, triple, quadruple in cost?
You can't run a 3000 horsepower iron ore haul truck on batteries. Oil is the only way you can power the heavy industries that supply the volumes of materials required for urban sprawl. Without plentiful, cheap, oil human settlement will need to contract.
One of the ironies of peak oil is that you need huge amounts of diesel (from oil) to run coal mining equipment (trucks, shovels etc). Hopefully peak oil also makes coal more expensive forcing a paradigm shift.On Why I don't agree with James Kunstler about peak oil and the 'end of suburbia' posted 2 years, 1 month ago 65 Responses
Amazon burns, too
The elephant in the room is the burning of the Amazon, although I'm not at all trivialising the CA fires...
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/1016-amazon.html
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/1021-amazon.htmlOn Global warming and the California wildfires posted 2 years, 1 month ago 8 ResponsesWater scarcity in Australia, too
If you want to see "water stress" in a rich country, come to Brisbane, Australia's third largest city. Expanding population and below average rainfall in the last 5-10 years has seen the city's water supplies drop to a total of 20% of full capacity. Current projections see this running out in a year or two depending on whether or not summer rains return this year.
Local goverment has enacted severe water restrictions that require each person to use less than 140 litres per day or risk fines. Use of hoses outdoors is banned. Garden watering or car washing must be done by hand-held bucket and only on certain days. Consistently exceeding your allotment can result in the water authority clamping your homes water supply to a tiny trickle - enough for drinking and cooking but not much else!
To alleviate the situation a water network is being constructed to bring water from other supplies, a new dam is being constructed and a pipeline is being built to recycle treated sewage back into the supplies.
The new dam will inundate many productive family farms and potentially destroy a pristine river. Communities attached to the other water supplies are not happy with the city "stealing" their water and of course we will basically be "drinking our own poo" when the treated water recycling commences.
The water restrictions have generaly been embraced - people have voluntarily reduced their consumption to 130 liters per day, and most are confident that the recycled water will be safe given the level of treatment it is given.
Many households are installing water tanks to collect rainwater from roofs to provide a degree of water freedom - the government subsidises their installation.
I wonder if other rich countries like the US and those in western Europe will be ready for such measures as we have in Australia on a large scale to preserve water supplies?On Investments are needed to stave off climate-induced water crisis posted 2 years, 1 month ago 13 Responses