Comments John Dewey has made
Propane buses - neither smelly nor noisy
It may be because light rail is less "smelly and noisy", although electric buses are neither.
Propane buses produce fewer hydrocarbons and less smell than diesel buses. Propane buses require no infrastructure construction, other than refueling and maintenance stations.
I have no financial interest in promoting propane, other than the benefits of its cost efficiency to me, a taxpayer.
On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responseslight rail advocates get paid much more than I do
Maybe the freeways would be more congested, but some people are moving into Dallas, partly because of the light rail.
If people are moving into the Dallas because of the light rail, they certainly are not using it. Again, daily ridership is only 60,000, representing 30,000 round trip passengers - in a metro area of 6 million people.
The more people that live in the city proper, the less that are in the suburbs, the less congestion there is.
Sorry, but I have to disagree. Geographic dispersion, not geographic concentration, is the solution to urban congestion. When workplaces are dispersed, much more affordable housing can be built close to workplaces. Moving jobs to the suburbs - which is exactly waht is happening nationwide - keeps commuters out of already congested cities.
Bus rapid transit has been very successful, it may be that that would have been a better decision for Dallas.
Thank you for that consideration of my argument.
Light rail continues to be voted in over BRT because the print news media buys into it. Local newspapers continue to feature the propaganda of DART and rail advocate organizations funded by special interests.
Light rail requires much greater financial commitment - and allows much greater financial rewards. Light rail beneficiaries pack public meetings with professional advocates. Individuals who object in meetings - as I have frequently - get a fraction of the coverage given to DART officials and rail lobbyists.
Local newspapers have published several of our letters opposing rail transit. But every time they do, they follow up with 3 or 4 counter letters within a few days. Never do newspapers give much credence to the simple facts of light rails ineffectiveness.On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responses
$5 billion is "particularly burdensome"
I doubt that whatever is being spent in the Dallas area on public transit, relative to the entire budget, is particularly burdensome. However it happened, some money got funneled to public transit
I'm sorry, but I don't see how $5 billion can be casually tossed aside as "not particularly burdensome". A 1% sales tax is particularly burdensome when used so ineffectively.
Just dedicating some fixed amount of money for mass transit should not be the goal of any planner or any community. Mass transit was alive and well and functioning before light rail transit was proposed. Those who required such transit were already using the Dallas bus system, which worked quite well.
DART promised that the light rail trains would reduce congestion. Their propaganda brochure claimed that 150,000 vehicles would be removed from the freeways. At most 30,000 have been removed, and only if we believe that every light rail rider represents a vehicle removed from the freeway. We know that's not true because a significant number of bus riders were moved to trains as bus routes were redesigned after light rail implementation. We also know that some light rail riders are using the close in train stations as free parking spots after they've clogged the freeways for most of their commute.
Most light rail opponents do not object to mass transit, just to expensive, inefficient mass transit. Buses are flexible and inexpensive. Light rail trains are ineffective toys that help the environmentally-conscious feel something has been accomplished - and generate huge payoffs to engineering, construction, and train companies.On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responses
Let each culture pay its own way
I never liked living in suburbia, and there are certainly many people (don't have any figures) in Manhattan and other cities that don't. In fact, property values in dense city centers are even going up now, while they are going down in exurbia. So some people like it, some don't -- as long as I have a choice, it's cultural.
I agree that people have different desires. I do not agree that your property value assessment is valid across the U.S. Certainly those cities which have retained strong central business districts will see higher property values near center cores than in the far suburbs.
Housing in close proximity to workplaces continues to be more valuable. What has happened in the more modern cities is the dispersion of workplaces. Free markets and the availability of inexpensive land has combined to allow homebuyers with different desires both live in the neighborhoods they desire.
My issue with planners and environmentalists is their insistence that the predominant culture subsidize the minority one. It is apparently their intent to force change onto my culture, which is not going to happen. In the meantime, subsidization of your culture in modern cities have given us boondoggles such as Dallas light rail, a system that has cost $5 billion but only serves 30,000 people a day.
I try to have patience with the insistent argument that proper urban planning will change my culture to be closer to yours. If it were just argument, I wouldn't care. It's when you reach into my wallet to fund your new urban experiments that I get bothered. On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responses
Forget mass transit, embrace sprawl
I picture a balanced system where cities remained compact, the most economical modes of walking, bicycling, and mass transit were used on a daily basis, and personal automobiles were used for weekend journeys on private roads out to the nearby low-density countryside. A man can dream, can't he?
And a dream is all it is. What doomed streetcars in the U.S. is dooming them everywhere in the world where property is available for expansion: prosperity. Few people, given the choice, will live crowded together when they can enjoy the freedom of their own private space.
Movement to the suburbs predates the automobile. Cities spread along rail lines far away from central business districts. Once economical personal transport became available, and once incomes rose to take advantage of it, sprawl took off.
Government may have built highways, funded by user fees in the form of tolls and gasoline taxes, of course. But highways and roads are what voters wanted, expressed through their elected officials.
Personal transportation is simply more convenient. Voters will continue to petition government for more road money. Automobile and energy companies will continue to meet consumers' demands for that transport.
If we somehow run out of fuel for internal combustion engines - which I think is unlikely for many decades if not a century or more - sprawled suburbanites will be using electric cars.
The intelligent action for planners is to match consumer's desire for single-family detached housing with the suggested reduction in fuel availability. That can easily be accomplished by the de-centralization of workplaces. Geographic dispersion of workplaces and homes allows workers to live in the homes they desire and also enjoy short, inexpensive commutes.
Sprawl is the solution to rising energy costs and the alleged GHG crisis.On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responses
Town Centers? just nostalgia and hype
Virginia Beach just put in a "Town Center", which was a new urbanist project, and downtown Norfolk is getting some "walkable" development.
I haven't seen Virginia Beach's "Town Center", but I have seen the one in the affluent suburb of Southlake, TX. From in front of the storefronts it appears similar to the nostalgic view most people have of small towns. But instead of mom and pop retailers it houses Banana Republic, Williams-Sonoma, Crate and Barrel, and numerous other chain retailers.
About 150 townhouses have been built adjacent to the town center, within easy walking distance. That's enough for locals to claim this is a mixed use development.
The reality? Southlake's Town Center is just another shopping mall. The parking lots to the north are huge, and crammed with vehicles. Shoppers drive to the Town Center from all over Southlake and also from the five adjacent suburbs.
How is Southlake Town Center any different from Grapevine Mills Mall or Vista Ridge mall or any other mall in the north Texas? Large apartment complexes surround every shopping mall I've seen, and house many more residents than do the few high-priced townhomes around the Town Center. The customer base of this Town Center and the other suburban ones I've seen is primarily vehicle-based.
Town Centers may be nostalgic, but they are still just suburban shopping malls.
If the Virginia beach Town Center is really any different, I wonder why it required 3,200 parking places in a covered parking garage. Surely not for the 175 condos and 341 apartments it is trying to sell and lease.On Transit investment should and will be a part of the peak oil solution posted 1 year, 8 months ago 39 Responses
U.S. economy, U.S. mfg - all time highs
according to my model, the economy eventually follows manufacturing, either up or down
I certainly do not accept your model if it says that our economic health is dependent on only goods and not services. But even if I did, I don't see how such a model would show anything ill for the U.S. economy. As I pointed out before, U.S. manufacturing output is currently at an all time high. Should I repeat that again?
Let's try another point. The U.S. manufacturing output is greater than that of any other nation. How is that an indicator of anything ill for our economy?
The claim that manufacturing is in trouble because manufacturing employment has declined is just wrong. The U.S. agriculture industry produces more food than at any time in its history. Yet employment in agriculture is a tiny fraction of what it was 75 years ago or 100 years ago. Automation reduced the manpower requirements for agriculture decades ago just as it has done for manufacturing the past 40 years.
and then we will be dependent on the charity of strangers -- we already are.
Sorry, but I have no idea what you mean. The U.S. has the strongest economy in the world, by a fairly wide margin. Foreign producers depend on our strong economy for their livelihood. Foreign investors depend on our strong economy for long term returns on their investments and for the safety that our political and economic climate provides.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
Trade deficits represent prosperity
Trade deficits are unsustainable, John even the people who claim, as you do, that the trade deficit is the result of foreign investment -- like Ben Bernanke -- will claim that trade deficits cannot go on forever.
Ben Bernanke is not the only economist, just the best known. Don Boudreaux of George Mason University, John Tamny of H.C. Wainwright Economics, Dan Griswold of CATO, and Robert Murphy of the Pacific Research Institute have all recently argued that the trade deficits are meaningless and represent no danger. If I had the inclination, I could a number of other free market economists who agree.
Other economists have been claiming for 20 years that trade deficits were unsustainable. Yet those trade deficits keep growing at the same time that U.S. exports keep growing, that U.S. manufacturing has reached all time highs, that the GDP of the U.S. continues to grow, and that the net worth of U.S. households has reached all time highs.
Even if you don't mind that foreigners will own basically the entire country after a while
That could only happen if the U.S. possessed a fixed amount of wealth. But the wealth in the U.S. is increasing all the time. In fact, when foreign corporations invest in the U.S., they generally increase not only their own wealth but also that of Americans. Consider the BMW plant that was built in Spartenburg, SC, 15 years ago. It sparked an economic transformation in that state that made thousands of Americans much wealthier. Nearly 200 smaller firms in the Carolinas supply goods and services to the South Carolina BMW complex.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
U.S. mfg leads the world
it's not the imports that are a problem, it's that the exports don't keep up, thus an unsustainable trade deficit.
Sorry, Jon, but I do not see anything unsustainable about a trade deficit - AKA, a current account deficit, which is also known as a capital account surplus. If foreigners prefer to continue investing in the U.S. - continue the capital account surplus - rather than purchasing goods, I think that's great.
FYI, U.S. exports in 2006 were at an all time high level. Our exports have never been stronger. That's the magic of globalization which many ill-informed protectionists would kill.
If we can't manufacture, but must import, goods that are then used in the services sector
As I pointed out earlier, U.S. manufacturing is also at an all time high. To the extent that services are dependent on U.S. manufacturing, we should be dancing in the streets.
But, of course, services are not all dependent on U.S. manufacturing. Health care services are certainly not. Services to U.S. muiltinationals are dependent on the global profits of those multinationals, not just on the U.S. profits. The transportation sector - and all its service jobs - has boomed as a result of globalization.
The US should embark on a plan to bring its manufacturing level up to world-class
As I pointed out earlier, the U.S. leads the world in the production of aircraft, vehicles, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, semiconductors and gasoline. It's number 2 behind Germany in industrial machinery. U.S. manufacturing output is greater than that of any other nation. I don't know how you would describe world-class, Jon, but that looks pretty good to me.
On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 ResponsesManufacturing GDP is at an all time high
It would be a quite a stretch to attribute all the subsequent job loss to automation and not the fact that Reagan and the union-busting, neoliberal free-traders came in.
And I didn't attribute ALL the manufacturing job loss to automation. In fact, I pointed out how movement of the automobile industry out of the rust belt and into right-to-work states enabled productivity gains that union rules had prevented.
Another cause for the "elimination" of manufacturing jobs is the outsourcing within the U.S. When a manufacturing company outsources any service function - such as janitorial or cafeteria staffing - the service sector immediately gains workers and the manufacturing sector immediately loses workers. Anyone who has worked for large corporations the past 25 years should be well aware that whole departments have been outsourced to smaller service firms.
Certainly many factories have been offshored, and all U.S. consumers have realized lower costs of purchases as a result.
You can blame globalization or Reagan or anyone else you wish for the elimination of factory jobs in the U.S. Those who believed that very low skilled factory workers would continue to be paid as much as engineers or accountants were fooling themselves. Those wages were doomed as soon as:
- air conditioning enabled southern states to compete with the Midwest
- Japan reindustrialized after World War II
- political climates in low cost nations were stabilized enough to protect multinational investments
Still, my main objection to Tom Philpott's post remains: his incorrect claim that United States has outsourced its industrial base to China.
On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses- air conditioning enabled southern states to compete with the Midwest
Imports rise when the economy is strong
I'm not sure what happened to imports, but I believe they went up.
Imports of goods did increase from 2003 to 2006. In fact, the only time imports have not increased during the past thirty years were during the last three recessions: 1982, 1991, and 2001. Imports are a sign of a growing U.S. economy. When incomes are rising, consumers spend more, and some of that "more" is for imported goods.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
Growth in service sector is good!
Hello, again, Jon!
My response to one of your comments:
the percentage of manufacturing has actually declined from 2003 to 2006, from 12.4 to 12.1 percent.
Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been declining for at least 50 years:
- 1960 - 25.3%
- 1970 - 22.7%
- 1980 - 19.9%
- 1990 - 16.3%
- 2000 - 14.5%
- 2005 - 11.9%
- 2006 - 11.7%
Source: BEA: Industry Economic Accounts
That decline should not be alarming. Computers enabled automation of numerous manufacturing tasks. As that happened, the cost to manufacture numerous items continued to drop, and manufacturing's share of GDP thus also dropped.
What has happened to the U.S. economy the past 50 years is an explosion of the service sector. Though some try to demean service jobs as McJobs, the service sector actually includes the highly skilled professions: physicians, nurses, lawyers, accountants, architects, dental hygienists, computer systems analysts, management consultants, investment analysts, and many more. It also includes such blue collar jobs as truck drivers and cable television installers. And yes, it includes retail workers, but also retail supervisors, retail marketers, and retail buyers.
The highly paid government sector has also grown sharply since 1960.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
- 1960 - 25.3%
Hate? Why?
amazingdrx: "It's a zen lesson in resisting the power of hatred everytime you post Mr Dewey." ... Everyone else knows what I mean, right?
Oh, that's funny.
Actually, I thought this blog might be a forum for a free exchange of ideas, and I still do. That my disagreement with your ideas would cause you to feel hatred is a little surprising. I doubt that "everyone else" feels hatred, amazingdrx. On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
Ending Chinese poverty is good
"How very true! The sacrifice is well worth the end result. ... the Chinese should concentrate on making money first and fixing the environment later!"
If you ask the formerly impoverished Chinese workers, I am sure they will tell you that the gains from industrialization are well worth the increases in GHG. It was their choice to make.
I am alarmed by the loss of forest land everywhere. The solution to loss of forestland is the same as the solution to loss of American Bison. Make it profitable for landowners to grow or preserve trees, just as it is now profitable for ranchers to raise American Bison.
As for the GHG increases, I have stated in another post that I am not alarmed by increase in CO2. I am unconvinced anthropogenic global warming represents a significant threat to this planet. I'm not denying AGW, just skeptical about the magnitude and the danger.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
Why are manufacturing jobs down?
Tom,
My disagreement with your post is not about the decline in manufacturing jobs. Rather, I disagree with your conclusion that "the United States has outsourced its industrial base to China", which is just not true.
Manufacturing jobs have been lost constantly for as long as factories have existed in the U.S. The portion of U.S. workers in the manufacturing sector was declining long before we were importing goods from China. Automation and creative destruction are the primary reasons for manufacturing job losses.
As I said before, automobile manufacturing jobs have been moved to the Sun Belt. Companies such as BMW, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nissan have invested many billions in automobile plants here in the U.S. Most of those plants are more automated than the GM, Ford, and Chryslet plants they replaced. The union work rules that prevented many efficiencies have been eliminated as well. the net result is this: though vehicle manufacturing output in the U.S. has grown, vehicle manufacturing jobs have declined.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
U.S. rust belt jobs outsourced to the sun belt
Sorry, Mr. Philpott, but the U.S. has not outsourced its industrial base to China. U.S. manufacturing output in 2007 was at all time highs, and has grown 21% the past seven years. you can find this real data about U.S. manufacturing at the Bureau of Economic Analysis
The last figures I've seen, from 2006, showed that the U.S. still leads the world in production of aircraft, motor vehicles, medical equipment, semiconductors, chemicals, gasoline, and much more.
Michigan did not lose blue collar automobile jobs to Japan or China. It lost them to Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, and other business-friendly, right-to-work states.
About the dangers of industrialization to Chinese workers: the standard of living in China has skyrocketed as it modernizes. We should applaud the economic growth in formerly impoverished Asia.On Chinese miners and our appetite for cheap crap posted 1 year, 8 months ago 23 Responses
High labor costs doomed U.S. carmakers
pangolin: "Lets just blame the demise of the US automakers on health care costs and union wages....It must be nice to live in a fictional reality."
Sorry, pangolin, but the high labor costs are exactly the cause of domestic automakers problems. Don't misunderstand what I write, though. The leadership of GM and Ford are the ones who granted those concessions to the unions, and the leaders should rightfully be blamed. Of course, many of those shortsighted leaders have since departed.
The level of health care costs in the U.S. has nothing to do with the labor cost differential. Japanese automobiles sold in the U.S. are assembled in the U.S. Japanese automakers are moving subassembly manufacturing to the U.S. as well. Toyota and Honda pay the same U.S. health costs per auto worker as do Ford and GM. The big differences in labor costs are due to higher wage rates, underutilized workers, and retiree benefits, especially health insurance benefits.On Does additionality matter? posted 1 year, 8 months ago 29 Responses
trade deficit? so what?
Bill Hannahan: "maximize their benefit by reducing the price of oil and our trade deficit"
What benefit would the U.S. derive from reducing our trade deficit? If foreigners want to trade our little pieces of paper for goods they produced, why not continue letting them do that? If foreigners want to use those little pieces to invest in the U.S. rather than take some of our goods back home with them, why not continue to let them do that?
The truth is, the U.S. economic engine is so strong it generates increased wealth for both U.S. citizens and foreign investors alike. That foreigners have a greater need for saving - and choose to place their savings in U.S. financial instruments and U.S. capital investments - is no cause for alarm.On Mood in the hood posted 1 year, 8 months ago 10 Responses
Prius sales are a tiny portion of U.S. totals
pangolin: "Why? They have too great a proportion of large trucks and SUV's in their inventories and very little to offer a quality or mileage conscious buyer. Meanwhile Prii are occupying US asphalt like an invading army of giant Legos."
There's no question that the rise in gasoline prices caught Chevy and Ford with a glut of SUV's. But that's not why the firms are facing bankruptcy. Both Ford and GM have production labor costs that far exceed those of Japanese automakers. Those costs prevent the domestic automakers from investing anywhere close to as much for new product development as do Honda and Toyota.
Prius sales have benn increasing. But what vehicle models were the top sellers in the U.S. in 2007 - by a wide margin? Ford's F150 pickup and Chevrolet's Silverado pickup.
Chevy's Cobalt and Impala each outsold the Prius in 2007, and Ford's Focus was just about tied.On Does additionality matter? posted 1 year, 8 months ago 29 Responses
U.S. manufacturing at all time high
jon rynn : "There you have it -- the US used to import raw materials and export manufactured goods, now it's the opposite, just like those colonized Third World countries."
I'm not surprised you might think this. Whenever a Republican holds the presidency, the news media slants the news so much that the casual reader gets an incomplete picture. Today, even the right-wing fools such as Lou Dobbs are distorting the real state of the U.S. economy.
Here's some real facts:
U.S. exports, 2006 ($ billions)
manufactured goods ....... $923 ... 63%
services ..................... $414 ... 29%
agriculture & commidities ..$43 .... 3%
fuel and other ...............$71 .... 5%total U.S. exports ..... $1,437 .. 100%
That mix hasn't changed much in 2007, though full year data is not yet available.
U.S. exports comprised 11.1% of GDP in 2006. Fifty years ago U.S. exports made up only 5.2% of GDP.
Facts about U.S. manufacturingOn No American-made car meets China's fuel standards posted 1 year, 8 months ago 10 Responses
locate transit close to workplaces
"Did they consider transit accessibility when locating the business?"
The realistic way to reduce commuting GHG is to locate workplaces close to the type housing that workers desire. Moving corporate headquarters to the suburbs accomplishes this. But environmentalists seem to recoil in horror at the concept of sprawl - or population and workplace dispersion. In fact, though, geographic dispersion of workplaces allows many more workers to live close to their jobs.
Transit systems have been designed to benefit central business districts. Those systems rarely reflect the desires of both workers and employers who have been rejecting central business districts for decades. Worse, because the layouts of tracks are planned many years in advance of construction, rail-based transit systems cannot adapt to changes in growth patterns.
The solution to increasing transit usage lies not in locating workplaces close to CBD-oriented transit. Rather, transit systems need to be flexible enough to locate close to workplaces in evolving development patterns. That's why bus transit - with it's far lower capital costs per seat mile - should be the backbone of large cities developed after the 19th century. On Should emissions from employee commutes be included in company GHG inventories? posted 1 year, 8 months ago 2 Responses
Why not tax emissions and let the market work?
"put a tax on the fossil fuels and it will have the same effect, no?"
Forgive me for being uninformed, but why put a tax on fossil fuels? If the objective is to reduce CO2 emissions (not my objective, by the way), why not tax CO2 emissions? If a fossil fuel user can figure out how to elimimate or reduce his CO2 emissions, why should he be taxed the same as one who cannot?
If a tax is ever going to be accepted, it must be revenue neutral. And it can't include a huge redistribution of wealth. On Does additionality matter? posted 1 year, 8 months ago 29 Responses
Hooray for markets!
"So put a price on the thing that we want (CO2 reductions, less fossil fuel use per MWh, etc.) and then get out of the way to let markets figure out how to allocate capital."
Oh, I am so glad I found someone who believes in the power of markets! The failure of socialism in the 20th century should be proof that central planners cannot assimilate enough information to make choices for six billion consumers or 300 million consumers or even 10,000 consumers..On Carbon policy is close to getting the macro right, but plenty of smaller decisions remain posted 1 year, 8 months ago 9 Responses
Target consumers, not capitalists
"Our lame car companies don't make their (relatively few) most efficient vehicles in this country."
The mission of automobile manufacturers is to maximize shareholder's wealth. If enough American consumers wanted high mileage vehicles, and automobile manufacturers could sell them at a profit, the market would ensure a sufficient supply.
The problem environmentalists face is not with the manufacturers. It's with the consumers who are not yet convinced the harm they do outweighs the safety and comfort of larger vehicles. If you guys were winning that battle, you wouldn't even need government regulation.
Consumers are not sheep. They do make informed choices. Why do you guys want to believe U.S. consumers are a bunch of helpless fools?On No American-made car meets China's fuel standards posted 1 year, 8 months ago 10 Responses
What are airline tax breaks?
"I wonder why lobbyists for auto and airline industries would gobble up all the tax breaks and block every innovation that they can? "
Please explain the tax breaks that have been provided to the airline industry since deregulation in 1978. As I explained before, most airlines lobbied against the post-9/11 grants and loans. Airlines pay for air traffic control and airports through user fees.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Airline travel growth exceeds population growth
"Would you rather spend extra travel hours on a comfortable train, internet connected or sleeping peacefully?"
Obviously, travelers are selecting air travel. As I pointed out, the growth in the airline passenger industry continues, at a rate higher than the U.S. population growth. The growth in international air travel is even higher.
You can probably find many opinions about how airline travel is undesirable, from an environmental and comfort standpoint. But the real vote that matters is how consumers spend their dollars. On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Collective bargaining is not unethical
In the belly: " that someone with ethics, a sense of fairness, and integrity wouldn't ask for more concessions"
There is nothing unethical or unfair about asking for concessions from workers. Again, the leaders of corporations are required by law to represent the interests of their employers, the shareholders. The leaders of unions are required by law to represent the interests of their union members. Why would you expect anything else?
Perhaps you do not agree with the collective bargaining process, which forces the two sides to adopt adversarial roles. Please remember, though, that it is the workers and not the employers who vote for that process. On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Consumers choose air for long trips
amazngdrx: "Have you seen the news reports of air commuters stranded in airports for days due to weather delays, with absolutely no recvourse?"
In the belly: "as evidenced by increases in Amtrak ridership"
Have either of you seen any data on airline and rail passenger travel? The airline industry continues to grow, by about 24 million additional U.S. passengers in 2007. That one year increase - a mere 3.2% addition - is about the same as Amtrak's FY2007 total ridership of 25 million.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Airline industry leaders do not "whine"
The airlines are already whining about the high cost of fuel
I know a few airline executives personally. They are required by law to provide shareholders - the owners of their companies - with hard facts underlying the performance of their companies. I hardly would characterize their statements to shareholders and to the press about fuel costs as "whining".
and looking to their pilots and others to make more or continued wage concessions
As one who has sat across the table from pilot union representatives, I fully understand the bargaining process. Do you? Would you expect airline negotiators to do anything other than ask unions for concessions?
As airlines such as Southwest and Virgin America grow, it is only natural that profits of legacy carriers come under pressure. Don't mistake the shakeout of inefficient companies as signs of peril to an entire industry.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Government intervention hurt air travel
"Without government bailouts and military spending to develop every new generation of aircraft since the Wright brothers, who would be able to afford air travel now? "
Government bailouts just prolong inefficiencies in the airline industry. Few airlines wanted the post 9/11 loan guarantees, and only two of the larger airlines even applied for them. Government bailouts were the work of senators of Pennsylvania and Arizona who wanted to save U.S. Airways and America West from certain bankruptcy. A healthier industry would have emerged without those bailouts.
I disagree with your assessment that military spending was necessary for the development of jet aircraft travel. Certainly Boeing and McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed took advantage of military-sponsored innovations. But there is no way to know whether those innovations would have developed anyway.
It was government protection of airline route monopolies and government fare setting that hindered the developemnt of passenger air travel for decades. The explosive growth of that industry after deregulation is clear evidence that government intervention harmed rather than helped passenger air travel.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
air travel speeds are unmatched
"Renewable electric high speed commuter rail could beat it, for cost and travel time"
Not a chance of matching 550 mph any time soon. Certainly security checkpoint time delays add minutes to every flight, but for trips longer than 500 miles this won't make any difference.
To add enough rail capacity to make a dent in air passenger transport would require $ trillions. Where is that going to come from? Governments facing huge funding problems for retirement and health care?
Investors keep pumping money into the air industry. Airline passenger fares and taxes pay for airport maintenance and air traffic control. There's plenty of money to fund air transport. There's plenty of airline passenger voters who will resist changes to the status quo.
Environmentalists should realize that eliminating air passenger travel is the least achievable of their targets. Put your efforts into something that can get done.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
experts put money where their opinions are?
"A growing number of experts believe otherwise."
What does that mean? There are now a dozen so-called experts where there were once four?
Anyone can offer an opinion - and even claim it is informed. The real test, though, is how much money one is ready to bet on one's opinion. Airlines, aircraft manufacturers, energy companies, and millions of private investors are still placing their bets on the cost-effectiveness of air travel and a long-term supply of fossil fuels.
How much money would be invested on alternative energy without government incentives and government regulations? How much money would be invested in North American passenger trains if taxpayers and gasoline purchasers weren't heavily subsidizing rail? Government intervention in markets leads to .... shortages? lack of choices? collapse of the Soviet union? a rebirth of free markets in China?On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Air travel ain't going away
"How many airline bankruptcies have we already witnessed before carbon regulation."
What does airline bankruptcies have to do with the number of passengers who fly or the viability of one of the world's largest industries? Airlines went bankrupt in the 1970's, in the 1980's, in the 1990's, and in the 21st century. Yet passenger miles traveled worldwide has continued to grow over those four decades.
Even if the cost of jet fuel doubles in real, inflation-adjusted dollars - which is highly unlikely - the cost of air travel will remain far below any other form for trips longer than 400 miles.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
air travel going away? not any time soon
"The idea of mass affordable air travel was a nice little concept that lasted about 30 years."
You know, the people who run the world's passenger airlines are not stupid. Neither are the people who run Airbus and Boeing. If the future of air passenger travel were truly at risk, neither group of executives would be signing long term contracts to buy and sell the next generation of passenger aircraft.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Young people need the whole picture
Karsten: "I know that making young people aware of that and other problems is worth a lot."
I also know that it is worth a lot to help young people aware of tradeoffs and of risks. Are you able to teach young people that we don't have all the answers today? and that we had a different set of questions to debate 20 and 30 and 50 years ago when today's seemingly-poor choices were made? Are you able to point to the progress that Americans have made since 1971, or do you choose to only teach them how far we have to go?On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
North America train travel will not happen soon
"The other area in which Europe can serve as a model is trains. People in North America drive or fly because it seems to be much more convenient and faster than taking trains, and it probably is."
I don't see how the European train model can work in the U.S. Distances between large European cities are not that great:
- Paris-Milan 392 miles
- Geneva-Frankfurt 287 miles
- Brussels-Paris 162 miles
- Warsaw-Amsterdam 682 miles
Compare that with U.S. distances:
- New York-Dallas 1,316 miles
- Detroit-Miami 1,164 miles
- Atlanta-Denver 1,205 miles
- Philadelphia-Los Angeles 2,398 miles
- Boston-San Francisco 2,693 miles
Neither business travelers nor tourists are going to give up a 3 to 5 hour flight to sit on a train for 2 or 3 days.On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Isn't cross country rail obselete?
"perhaps give trains a competitive advantage when it comes cross country trips."
It's difficult to envision anyone trading a 6 hour cross country flight for a 62 hour cross country train ride.
Is the carbon footprint per passenger really much better for existing passenger trains?On Reducing your carbon footprint from travel posted 1 year, 8 months ago 41 Responses
Ideal vs quick BRT solutions
Jon Rynn: "The buses also need to be quiet and not "smelly", i.e., mostly electric. "
BRT generally uses existing highway corridors. I'm not sure why "quiet" matters, unless one insists that BRT be accompanied by high density housing.
Right now, an all-electric BRT system would probably require a huge investment in dedicated power lines. Implementing a diesel BRT along HOV lanes is much, much cheaper and much faster to implement. Those who wish to reduce the congestion and carbon impact of personal automobiles should think about achieving the most bang for the bucks.
If - or when - electric buses can operate without dedicated power lines, then I agree electric power should be the preferred option.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Clarification about my inflation comment
The economists I referenced argue that inflation has been consistently overstated for the past 30 years. They are not arguing that it is being overstated the past 3 or 4 years.
As sindark pointed out, the value we recieve per $ for so many consumer items has greatly increased since the mid-70's. Economists argue that common inflation statistics do not take this better quality of goods into account. One example of higher quality goods is the standard automobile, which once had an economic life of about 120,000 miles but now are driven for twice that much.
Because inflation indices determine benefit amounts for retirees and many who receive other government assistance, it has been politicaly difficult to make rational changes to those indices.
Why is the inflation rate so relevant to this current topic? Because the conversion of prior wages to today's dollars determines whether median wages have increased or declined. IMO, if inflation had been properly measured from 1970 until today, BLS wage statistics would show a significant increase in wages for most jobs.On Meyerson on the need for a new New Deal posted 1 year, 8 months ago 13 Responses
Bus vs train economics
The huge advantage of bus transport is the much lower cost. For the $5 billion that has been spent on light rail in Dallas - to serve a very small part of the metro area - Dallas Area "Rapid" Transit could have blanketed the metro area with buses. As those diesel buses needed to be replaced, the newer electric buses could have replaced them. BRT doesn't even need dedicated highway lanes. In Dallas, these buses are using existing HOV lanes.
Here's what is incredibly stupid. A new light rail extension is being built - at a cost of a couple of $billion - to serve the northwest corridor of Dallas. That corridor is already being served by express buses, which will be eliminated when light rail service is available. Because of the number of rail stops along the soon-to-be built light rail extension, bus commuters travel times will increase. Why are they doing this extension? Because the suburban cities along that corridor have been paying for light rail for 20 years.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Like a train with rubber tires
Where we truly need mass transit, here's the solution I support:
http://www.globaltelematics.com/pitf//newdirections.htmOn A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Forgot one important vehicle
Rubber tire bicycles can also reach every home and business in the U.S.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
roads already cover the U.S.
Jon Rynn: "you'd have to cover the whole country with roads in order to get an "adequate" system."
Not sure I understand what you mean. The whole inhabited country is already covered by roads. That's why rubber-tire vehicles - whether personal or public - are so much more efficient than trains. A motorcycle, a Prius, an SUV, a van, a bus, an ambulance, a fire truck, or a police car can reach every home and business in the nation right now. To do the same with trains would require trillions in capital spending - and still leave us with a requirement for roads.
Please don't misunderstand the meaning of my posts. I am not opposed to mass transit - just to trains. I road express buses in Houston 30 years ago.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
from a lobbyist's paper ...
Jon Rynn: "from a paper from the American Public Transit Association"
I'm sorry, but I'm not going to believe an industry lobbying association is presenting an objective argument when it states:
"there is one root cause of congestion: too many vehicles crowding available road space coupled with a lack of travel options."
Yes, our nation's road funding has lagged the demand for roads. Gasoline taxes have not kept pace with inflation and with increases in vehicle fuel efficiency. Further, mass transit now syphons away 15% of highway funds.
It should be no surprise that the "solution" prescribed by the mass transit lobbyist is to put more money into mass transit. The solution for teh highway lobby would be to put more money into highways. Want to read some of highway propaganda just to get a balance of views?On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
NY metro commute longest in the nation
Jon Rynn: "Maybe transit-oriented cities are slower for automobile traffic, but faster for transit-dependent commuters. "
As I understand it, the data on commute times I linked to includes all commuters - those who used personal vehicles as well as those who used mass transit.
When I worked for Chemical Bank in NYC, few people I worked with had commutes anywhere close the 10 minutes you enjoy. That was 24 years ago, but I don't think commuting for Manhattan workers has improved. The Census Bureau survey shows the average NY metro commute to be 38 minutes, the highest in the nation. It shows the average commute for Dallas to be just 24 minutes, lower than my own commute of 35 minutes.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Sprawl doesn't need transit to save energy
"is there a place for transit in sprawl cities, particularly if "we" want to move to a less energy-intensive form."
The simplest way to reduce energy consumption is to live close to one's workplace. That can be accomplished two very different ways:
- pack all jobs and housing into a very dense geographical area; or
- disperse jobs and housing throughout a sprawled, much larger georgaphical area.
Increasing density leads to unwanted congestion. Dispersal of housing and workplaces leads to shorter commutes for those who choose to live close to workplaces. Can't help those who won't take advantage of the gift that sprawl provides, of course.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
- pack all jobs and housing into a very dense geographical area; or
Overstated inflation = flawed income analysis
"The fact that $X will buy you a much better car or computer today than it would twenty years ago is relevant when considering the degree of utility people derive from their present economic circumstances."
For this reason, many economists believe inflation has been significantly overstated for at least 30 years.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C00E5D616 ...
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_425055.h ...
http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=3606
If these economists are correct - if inflation has been overstated for decades - then comparisons of median real incomes over those three decades are flawed. On Meyerson on the need for a new New Deal posted 1 year, 8 months ago 13 Responses
Vehicle miles traveled have declined? Where?
Ryan Avent: "Transit ridership on existing systems is increasing. Where transit exists as an option, increased gas prices have limited growth in vehicle miles traveled and increased transit ridership."
Ryan, I do not dispute that transit ridership has increased. After all, the U.S. working population has increased. At the same time, billions have been spent to increase rail transit's reach.
My argument was that mass transit share has declined tremendously since 1960. It has continued to decline even after the federal government began to syphon 15% of federal gasoline taxes away from highways and spend on mass transit.
Can you point to specific metropolitan areas where increased gasoline prices have limited growth in vehicle miles driven? Are these metropolitan areas ones that are growing in population?
On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 ResponsesSprawl = less congestion
Ryan Avent,
First, let me apologize. You are correct that new York is denser. The Los Angeles PMSA is denser than any other in the U.S. - except for New York, Jersey City, and a couple of other PMSA'a in the greater New York area.
Nevertheless, Los Angeles is very much denser than Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, and several other large, newer cities. The denser, older cities in the U.S. - New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago - all have longer average commute times than do the sprawled cities of Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Denver, and Atlanta.
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Ranking/2003/R04T1 ...
Why are commute times shorter in sprawled cities than those in dense cities? One major reason is because it is so easy to live close to workplaces in sprawled cities.
Mr. Avent, I have worked in New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Dallas. I have engineered peak hour express courier routes in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, and Dallas. My employer depended on me to understand peak hour traffic congestion, and I performed that job very well. Based on my experience, I can confidently write that congestion in the dense cities is much worse than that in sprawled cities. On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Central business districts = longer commutes
jon rynn: "I think simple graph theory would show that having a group of destinations in the middle of a circle minimizes travel from the periphery of the circle"
I disagree. Theoretically, a central business district could minimize travel distance, but never travel time. A significant amount of energy and time is wasted when commuters sit on congested freeways and congested access roads trying to squeeze into central business districts.
In practice, a central business district does not even minimize travel distance. All across the nation, commuters have moved close to workplaces. When workplaces are dispersed across a large geographical area, that's possible. When workplaces are located close together, it is not. There is simply not enough land in the immediate vicinity of central business districts to accomodate the type of housing which the nation's overwhelmingly prefer.
Would you have the government force families to live in housing arrangements they would not otherwise choose? For me, freedom to live where one desires and where one can afford should trump all the goals of urban planners. On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
Putting buildings close together = congestion
Jon Ryan: " we have to decide as a society, what kind of urban structure we want."
Who is this "we" that has to decide where I am going to live?
Most home buyers have been deciding they want to live in suburbs for many decades. They're still deciding this, even with rising gasoline prices.
The solution to reducing commuting travel is to move jobs close to housing. That's exactly what is happening in Dallas, in Houston, in Phoenix, in Denver, in Atlanta. I suspect it's happening in Chicago and Boston as well. And in Paris and Milan.
Jon Ryan: "whether we want to move toward town/city centers instead of sprawl, and if we do, then trains need to be part of the mix"
Sprawl is a solution to congestion and pollution. It is not a problem.
There is no reason why Dallas and Phoenix need to look like New York and Boston.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
sprawl does not cause congestion
Ryan Avent: "we didn't understand what we were getting into--that congestion, pollution, and sprawl would be the result of such an unbalanced approach to transportation."
I disagree that sprawl causes congestion. Increasing population density causes congestion.
Dallas-Fort Worth is probably the most sprawled major metropolitan area in the nation. I drive 24 miles into the center of Dallas every day. My commute time is under 35 minutes. Each morning my wife drives across three suburbs, each with populations exceeding 100,000. Her commute is also less than 35 minutes.
Los Angeles is the most dense metropolitan area in the U.S. Most residents there would love to have a 35 minute commute.
On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responsesdemand for rail transit?
Ryan Avent: "There is incredible demand for the tiny pool of federal money available for use on transit."
Oh, I agree that there is demand for the building of rail transit. But there is just not enough demand for the use of rail transit once built. Voters who favor mass transit either mistakenly believe they will use it or, more likely, mistakenly believe everyone else will use it.
I disagree that the pool for mass transit is tiny. 15% of the federal gasoline taxes collected from vehicle drivers is dedicated to mass transit funding. Mass transit commuters are much more subsidized than highway commuters, who pay for most of their highways and all of their fuel.On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
roads are what commuters want
rh: "I might be wrong, but I'm thinking we built a few more roads than transit lines...funny how that'll drive down your miles traveled on transit, eh?"
Why do you think we've built more roads than transit lines? Could it be that's what people want?
The 45 mile Trinity Railway Express (TRE) connects Dallas, Irving, and Fort Worth Texas. Its high speed trains are never full. About 4,400 round trip passengers per day use it.
Interstate 30 and State Highway 183 connect the same cities, running parallel and nearby TRE. Approximately 200,000 vehicles travel each way daily on these highways.
Why should north Texas build any more transit lines that won't be used?On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 Responses
public transit share? about 1,5%
Ryan,
Do you know how the American Public Transit Association determined that mass transit use increased more than vehicle miles traveled in 2007? I cannot find data from the Department of Transportation for the second half of 2007.
I have seen data on public transit miles traveled and personal vehicle passenger miles traveled through 2005. This data shows that mass transit's share of miles traveled has continued to decline, and was about 1.5% in 2005. That's down from a 1960 share of 7.1% and a 1975 share of 2.9%.
On A comprehensive solution to end congestion posted 1 year, 8 months ago 33 ResponsesTRE did nothing to shape Fort Worth development
tasermons partner: "Actually, and though not a part of the DART system technically, parta the growth in Fort Worth is due to an expansion of daily services of a transit line that connects Fort Worth to Dallas, and the DART line."
And what part would that be?
The Texas and Pacific lofts by the T&P station are a fraction of the development at Sundance Square - which is on the other side of downtown from the TRE line.
I've seen no development near the Richland Hills station.
And, of course, the housing development in the far suburbs of Tarrant County - around Keller, Southlake, Colleyville, and Grapevine - dwarfs the puny growth near the TRE line by a factor of at least 500. IOW, for every condo that has been added near TRE since its opening, at least 500 single family homes have been added in train-less Fort Worth suburbs. On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses
DART propaganda misleads
"The DART light rail system has been a major success. It has encouraged extensive new development and redevelopment of several older districts."
DART - and its hired econimist from the Universiy of North Texas - are quick to claim credit for every development that occurs anywhere close to its rail lines. The developments they list just happen to be next to either existing expanded freeways or the still vibrant center city. Fort Worth has seen similar development near its center city - but miles from the nearest rail line.
What DART - and its economist - do not advertise is that DART lines not adjacent to freeways - such as the Trinity Railway Express and Blue Line to Garland - have seen no development. They also fail to point out that every new freeway and tollway in the Dallas-Fort Worth area is quickly followed by office and housing development hundreds of times larger than what occurs near its rail lines.
Bottom line: development still follows roads and highways, just as it has done for the 100 years since the introduction of the Model T.
On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 ResponsesDART is anything but a winner
Jon Rynn: "Also, ridership is up past 60,000, apparently. It sounds like you have a winner there."
Please remember that "ridership" counts every one way trip as a rider. So a "ridership" of 60,000 means that, after 15 years and $5 billion in subsidies, 30,000 people are using the trains each day - in a metro area with a population of 5 million. How on earth is that a winner? On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses
Trains are not economical
Jon Rynn: "So it sounds to me that Dallas should be putting in trains along with plans for new town centers (which Virginia Beach constructed a Town Center, for example)."
That would be OK, except that it cost Dallas metro taxpayers $5 billion (so far) to provide a system to serve 1 percent of the commuters. Of course, if the train commuters were paying for the total cost of their own ride, ridership would plummet.
The problem with so many green solutions is that the masses end up subsidizing the few. What are needed are solutions which pay for themselves.
On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responsesmove jobs close to housing
Thanks for the response, Mr. Philpott,
As I see it, whether low density is a problem or not, it is the choice that 2 million households have already made in north Texas. Spending another $5 billion on trains is not going to change the density. IMO, it is not practical to assume those 2 million homes are going to be abandoned. On the other hand, workplaces can be moved closer to existing housing. That's what is happening not just in Dallas, but across the nation as office jobs are relocating to the suburbs.On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses
live close to work
Jon Rynn,
Thank you for the link to the very detailed anlysis. The conclusion of that analysis makes sense:
"Neither the automobile nor mass transit will significantly reduce our energy consumption in urban passenger transportation. There is no magic technical fix for the problem, but there is an obvious solution: Simply greatly reduce the amount of travel."
Environmentally conscious citizens should be promoting mixed use development rather than expensive and ineffective trains. On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses
a light rail boondoggle
Light rail has been promoted for almost 30 years as the solution for traffic congestion in low density Dallas. So what has been the result?
Dallas Area Rapid Transit has collected about $5 billion in sales taxes and federal government grants over the past 20 years. Their latest rail ridership figures for 2007?
light rail - 60,592 riders per day
commuter rail - 8,893 riders per dayRidership figures count each half of a commuting round trip as a separate trip. Do the above ridership totals really mean that - at most - 34,700 passengers have abandoned their personal vehicles to ride the trains. The areas served by DART and the Trinity Railway Express are home to 3.5 million daily commuters.
Net result from collecting $5 billion of taxpayers money for rail transit in Dallas? 1% of commuters have been removed from the highways.
Trains do not work in low density metro areas. Yet greens keep promoting them. Why?On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses
Why trains?
Rail transit is just incredibly uneconomical compared to bus rapid transit or conventional bus transit. It's so sad to see so much money wasted on rails and trains with so little benefit.
Trains can only go where rails are built. Buses can go everywehere that cars can go. Buses can easily be reallocated to meet shifting demand. Buses can serve events in locations throughout a metro area.
Why do so many greens buy into these expensive solutions that suck funds from more cost-effective alternatives?On Defying conventional wisdom, NC residents express desire for public transport posted 1 year, 8 months ago 27 Responses