icurhuman2’s Recent Comments

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  Oil Shocks unlimited...

   No amount of of CERA propaganda will make a difference to those of us who've been looking at this for a long time.
   The current "low" price of oil is a temporary phenomenon, it won't last long. The US inventory is high but oil-use during the coming months will rise, whether there's a mild or severe winter.
   Production of oil is so tight that even small disruptions send the price upwards. However, I've personally stopped looking too closely at supply/demand data because it hardly makes that much difference to prices; background manipulations are more interesting and have a greater bearing on price at this time. Demand-destruction is the major strategy used these days; note the coincidental "liquids-on-planes" fiasco that timed perfectly with the aviation-fuel bottle-neck - all those cancelled and delayed flights managed to give them some breathing space to lift stock. CERA isn't the only pay-for-comment organisation "on the payroll".
   The other markets are much more worth paying close attention to as so many clear imbalances are guaranteed to crash the markets overnight, and sometime soon. It's a matter of where it will start that's going to be the most interesting aspect.
   The FOREX currency trades have been one place I watch fervently; the US$ is being sold-off by a lot of foreign central banks and Goldmann Sachs and the (privately-owned) Federal Reserve Bank appear to be holding up the dollar through buy-ups.
   The US housing bubble is yet to burst, though its been deflating rapidly lately, while the cheer-squad on Wall St continue to pump out dubious treasury figures and dubious market predictions.
   The US deficit is going through the roof and net savings are in negative territory, and worsening.
   The petro-dollar is the only thing saving the currency above the buy-backs, but moves in oil prices will add to the downward pressure on the US dollar. I think a recession/depression will become the demand-destruction tactic of the future, it should push the oil-peak ahead by a few years; which will still only delay the inevitable...

   

  A man never reaches that dizzy height of wisdom that he can no longer be led by the nose. - Mark Twain's Notebook

  On No, really posted 3 years ago 19 Responses