brasidas
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Average or Mean?
Interesting that the author hand waves chaotic dynamics away as unimportant and then claims the average is taken when the mean value is more important to prediction of repetitious pattern behavior.
Regardless, the author's assertion does not measure up to the observed behavior. Weather is chaotic, and where recurring patterns continue, the parameters observed in a time frame that appear stable are in what's known as a subcritical region. Those parameters that are observed in a time frame with wildly varying and unpredictable results tend to be within a supercritical region, which can be the result of variable perturbations of the system under observation.On 'Chaotic systems are not predictable'--Sure, but who says climate is chaotic? posted 1 year, 10 months ago 13 Responses