James Cripwell’s Recent Comments

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  Hotter then even hotter

  Joseph Romm seems to be ill informed on two counts.  First with respect to solar minima, of which there are two, one which affects the earth's climate, and one which does not.  The sun goes through 11 year Schwabb cycles, and between cycles, sunspots are at a minimum.  This minimum has no effect on the earth's climate, so the current minimum is irrelevsnt.  Each cycle has a maximum smoothed sunspot number (Rz).  Thus we get one value of maximum Rz every 11 years.  If you plot these, this curve goes through maxima and mimima.  These minima control the earth's temperature, and the two major ones are called the Maunder and Dalton minima.  The crucial number we dont know is what will be the maximum Rz for solar cycle 24.  If it is small, then we are in for a cold climate.  Estimates vary between 35 and 150.
  A second point is that when a cooling trend follows a warming trend, the cooling trend starts at the maximum of the warming trend.  This is what is now happening.  So, of course, the current temperatures are close to the maximum;  the earth' temperature is currently going through a shallow maximum.  What counts is the slope of the "climate temperature" against time.  Proper anaylsis shows that for all 5 sets of temperature anomalies, the current slope is negative.  That is what matters.On NOAA says July 08 was fifth warmest on record posted 1 year, 2 months ago 15 Responses