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  Geologists probably aren't out to get you.

  I asked a geologist friend of mine (who worked many years ago for BP) about his thoughts on peak oil. He is a hedgehyog. He said "Well, my field is geology, peak oil is simple math and abiotic oil has been extensively studied. In the 80's we were pretty much done exploring it. It hadn't panned out. THe math of peak oil is easy, calculating reserves is hard. But I'd be more worried about global warming if I needed to find something to worry about. Peak oil only means the end of around half our food supply right? But global warming is a really big deal. THe carboniferous stuff we go though (relating to the age) is from an atmosphere that would basically kill us today." ANd then he went on to talk about the carboniferous era. Well, his expertise sort of touches on that kind of thing but I would consider that one of the sort of predictions this article is talking about. He isn't a climate researcher. He basically knows what kind of rocks are likely to be where.

  I don't know if that relates now that I think of it and hard sciences are a lot different than soft sciences. THere are a lot fewer variables in hard sciences. ANyway, for what it's worth, there is an example.On What's a prediction worth? posted 3 years, 11 months ago 17 Responses