kn99’s Recent Comments

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  Biofuels, and peak oil

  Again, Sandalow's book is worth checking directly.  The growth in biofuels is gradual over 20 years, with the early growth in domestic corn and imported cane ethanol, and 75% of the long-term production from agricultural residues (of which there are many adequate sources -- again, check the book).  And that's without progress on algae, biobutanol, etc, all of which have promise over 10-20 years.

  About subsidies:  If the peak oil theories are right, they are not a problem -- at oil over $50 per barrel, today's biofuels are profitable.  The problem in the past has been that oil production never peaked, and prices were under $25 per barrel for decades.

  In any event, it's the shift to electric power that is critical.  If oil prices go very high, even today's PHEVs are economic.  With high enough prices, or shortages in biofuels, Sandalow's plan shifts more to electricity.  The plan assumes only 40-mile batteries and overnight recharging.  With higher oil prices, larger battery packs become economic, vehicles can recharge during the day, and they can have replaceable battery packs (similar to today's replaceable propane tanks).  These are small disruptions at minimal risk, and the can push the reduction in oil use to 90%.

  Sandalow's book makes the point that his plan is already close to mainstream thinking.  Even the Brookings Institution is promoting it, the book is endorsed across the political spectrum, and that's in response to today's ecological and geopolitical costs of oil (before the coming economic costs of peak oil.)On Sandalow explains the ins and outs of oil dependency posted 2 years, 1 month ago 11 Responses

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  If you care about oil, do read the book

  I think you'll find it worthwhile to read the book.  As I understand Sandalow's plan, the outcome is that, in 10 years or less, the average new car sold in America will be a flex-fuel PHEV.  It will travel 6 or 7 out of every 10 miles on electricity, about 2 on biofuel and 1 or 2 on oil.  As old vehicles are replaced by new ones, by my reckoning, America would use something like 75% less oil than it does today.  

  Biofuels are relatively small part of the plan. Their supply would gradually expand to about 4 or 5 times more than today.  At this level, the environmental effects remain positive (ie, reducing CO2 emissions), while creating an alternative fuel supply chain.

  Subsidies are applied in the short term and phased out as the vehicle market develops. With Europe and most of Asia even more vulnerable to oil shocks, it's unlikely they would not follow suit and remove their reliance on oil as well.

  While Sandalow's plan includes some programs for improving public transit and altering growth patterns, their benefits would be additional to the above reductions.

  The premise of the book is the need to substitute other energy sources for oil, and the plan cuts use by three-quarters or more.  I guess I don't understand the objection concerning 'peak oil'.  The environmental and geopolitical reasons to cut oil use are pressing regardless of its supply; arguments concerning peak oil simply pile on more reasons for the premise.

  BTW, there's a new video interview of Sandalow at http://www.eande.tv/video_guide/680On Sandalow explains the ins and outs of oil dependency posted 2 years, 1 month ago 11 Responses