ssn139’s Recent Comments

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  Over-emphasizing Battery Change Stations

  I liked the points you brought up, but I think that you are over-emphasizing the importance of battery change stations in Better Place's (or any other EV company's) model, at least in small, isolated places like Israel or Hawaii. The Better Place website estimates that its car will be able to go 100 miles on a charge.  Lets say that its really 90 miles on average, given that some batteries will be weaker.  As the Post article pointed out, that would be more than enough range for most driving. Thus, the user wouldn't go near a charge station during normal use.

  In Israel, the furthest straight-shot drive you'd probably take would be about 170 miles (from the northern most part of the country to the beginning of the nearly uninhabited Negev desert. That's one change. Round trip on the biggest of Hawaii's Island (though it only has about 1/10th the population) is 220 miles (two changes). You can get around the most populous island in just about one charge (90 miles). Not to mention that Better Place is planning to put up charge stations up in public places so you can charge the car while you visit your grandmother (or whoever) before returning home.

  When you move to a much larger place, I think the complaints about the battery stations become much more important. Unlike Israel and Hawaii, I don't think the U.S. government or other 49 states should give Better Place much help until they show they can do large areas effectively, like in Australia. Our infrastructure money will be better spent on trains and mass transit. As for the space required for battery change stations, most long trips are going to take you away from cities and towns, and there's still plenty of unused room around all of these sorts of gas stations I've visited.

  Some other larger problems facing Better Place (and EVs in general) is the low cost of gas (at least in the United States) and lithium supplies, which I've written about here

  The Finite World. A resources and energy blog.

  On Does anyone think battery swap-out is useful or even needed for electric vehicles? posted 9 months, 1 week ago 11 Responses

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  Can't Tax What Doesn't Exist

  Given the way oil prices are headed, its going to be pretty hard to tax oil companies for windfall profits. He could still fight to pass a windfall tax, but little would be collected unless the economy miraculously rebounds next year. What would be the point?

  The Finite World. A resources and energy blog.

  On Commentary Magazine warms to Obama posted 10 months ago 3 Responses

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  I think Lutz is Kinda Right

  While there is a growing market for fuel-efficient vehicles, I think Lutz is right.  At $1.50 a gallon, many, many people (if not all of the American public) want SUVs and pickups.  This is why I think it isn't the best idea to mandate that Detroit build hybrids, etc. It might be easier politically, but its also slow and its inefficient. If the language of the bill is too weak, Detroit can just drag its feet in car development. If Congress mandates too much, cars that aren't really done might get pushed forward too quickly. Instead, we need to increase the gas tax.

  I've written more on this here:http://www.thefiniteworld.com/108

  The Finite World. A resources and energy blog.

  On Bob Lutz: Fuel-efficient cars, like global warming, a crock of sh*t posted 11 months ago 7 Responses

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  why you might not want to buy GM

  amazingdrx asked why Gates, Buffet, or the government doesn't just buy GM.  Lets ignore the whole political taboo and look at why an investor might not want to buy GM.

  First, you're getting two very different things if you buy the company instead of loaning the company money. If someone decided they wanted to buy GM, they would currently need to spend about 2.5 billion to buy up the company stock. The money would go to current stock holders - not the company itself.

  Congratulations, you own GM! Now what do you do? The company is still the company, and it is incredibly in debt and in need of loans. GM currently has $170 billion dollars in liabilities. Even if you liquidated the rest of the company, you'd still be in the whole by about $60 billion according to the company's balance sheet. Would you want to spend $2.5 billion dollars for the pleasure of paying someone else $60 billion more?

  To get the company out of the whole, you still need more capital (such as government loans) to invest in new car technology, or whatever you think will do the trick. Buying the company doesn't provide the capital to do this.  

  The Finite World. A resources and energy blog.

  On American Progress' 'Green Recovery' plan posted 11 months ago 21 Responses

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  No Conspiricy

  I agree with Jon. OPEC can't even keep their own members from ignoring quotas, let alone control global prices, which are determined by the global market in the same way that the price of other commodities is determined. Prices went up because demand spiked in developing nations such as China and India. Now that many nations are in recession, and others are not growing as fast, the price has come down.
  

  The Finite World. A resources and energy blog.

  On Is cheap gas OPEC's way of robbing Obama of his clean energy initiative? posted 11 months, 1 week ago 11 Responses