cjwirth
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Peak Oil is a catastrophe
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. Merrill Lynch and Matthew Simmons indicate the this could be worse with little investment in oil production.
In any case, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:"
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com
On Non-OPEC production has likely peaked, oil output could fall by 30 million bpd by 2015 posted 9 months ago 5 ResponsesClick here to view comment in original post
Conservation Will Not Save Us
Improved rail and conservation is good, but will not save us in the end.
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. and Europe represent one third of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere.
Thus, conservation in the U.S. and Europe will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com
On Upgrade freight rail: Save 12 percent of oil, 4 percent of emissions, and jumpstart renewable grid posted 9 months, 3 weeks ago 16 ResponsesClick here to view comment in original post
Peak Oil is Now
Independent studies (reviewed in the Peak Oil Report
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
by Clifford J. Wirth) conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
- Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly" (2008 to 2010)
- Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)
- Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
- T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)
- Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
- Chris Skrebowski, Editor of "Petroleum Review" (2010)
- Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
- Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:"
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_ ...
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won't be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com
On Journalist interrogates head economist of International Energy Agency posted 10 months, 3 weeks ago 5 Responses- Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
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National Academy of Science Study of Peak Oil
Dr. Hirsch apparently thinks there is an over abundance of news/info about Peak Oil. In reality, almost no one knows about this Peak Oil catastrophe.
Now my research -- http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html -- indicates that alternatives cannot make up the gap in declining oil supplies; this is now confirmed by the Energy Watch Group, which in funded by the German Parliament:
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
Clearly, it is important to note that not only will oil production soon decline, but that alternatives will not fill the gap.
Dr. Hirsch should be announcing that we are in trouble and he should be calling for a National Academy of Science study of Peak Oil impacts. The NAS is the only objective source that can advise the Congress and president without interest group bias.
Meanwhile back at the ranch. I see the catastrophe coming and I have found a lifeboat off of this Titanic. There is lots of room on the lifeboat. I used to live in NH, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil?
clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.Here is another lifeboat that I am working on: http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com
On Robert Hirsch suggests 'keeping relatively quiet' in near-term about peak oil posted 11 months, 3 weeks ago 11 ResponsesClick here to view comment in original post
Alternatives won't solve the energy problems
In PEAK OIL COULD TRIGGER MELTDOWN OF SOCIETY, it is interesting to note what the Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes about alternative energies:
>>>> "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame." <<<<<
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
According to most independent scientific studies, global oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 9%.
No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.
We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
cjwirth www.peakoilassociates.com
On Pearlstein: 'A Detroit bankruptcy beats a bailout' -- but what do you think? posted 12 months ago 29 Responses