barry schwarz’s Recent Comments

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  same for ocean temps

  Sea surface temperatures have also been cooling for the last 4 years (although sea level has risen in the same period, just a little more slowly than before).On 'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick posted 1 year, 2 months ago 170 Responses

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  Global warming stopped in 2003

  The linear trend from 1998 to 2007 is 0.1C. For that particular period, the globe has been warming.

  Run a linear trend from 1998 to July 2008 (latest data at the time of this post), and we still have a warming trend. This despite choosing the highest anomaly ever as a starting point and a very low anomaly for the end point.

  But if you run a linear trend from 2001 - 2007 (or mid-2008), the trend is cool or flat (depending which record you use).

  Does this mean warming stopped in 2001?

  Look at the numbers.

  Hadley temperature anomalies in degrees C:

  1988 - 0.174
  1989 - 0.109
  1990 - 0.247
  1991 - 0.203
  1992 - 0.070
  1993 - 0.104
  1994 - 0.169
  1995 - 0.270
  1996 - 0.138
  1997 - 0.347
  1998 - 0.526
  1999 - 0.302
  2000 - 0.277
  2001 - 0.406
  2002 - 0.455
  2003 - 0.465
  2004 - 0.444
  2005 - 0.475
  2006 - 0.421
  2007 - 0.399
  2008 - 0.280 (average of current monthly data for the year)

  Clearly, the decade following the very high 1998 is warmer than the previous. 1998 was an exceptional year, but the linear trend from that year to present is still warming.

  If we run linear trend lines (with Hadley numbers) from after 1998 to present, we get downwards trends. But does that mean the 2001 start year for those trends mark the year global warming "stopped"? Not at all.

  If we treat 1998 (which warm spike includes the latter months of the year before) as an extraordinary anomaly - caused by a very strong el Nino - we still have warming up to about 2004 - 2005.

  I ran polynomial trend lines in Excel from 2002, 2001, 2000... 1988 to present to get a curve on the change in temperature. Every one of the curves 'peaked' around 2003 - 2004 or after. The shorter the time frame, the earlier the peak. Even eyeballing the numbers you can see that the warming continued, with a spike at 1998 (not the highest jump in the record), until 2003 - 2005.

  So which is more correct? To say warming stopped in 2001 (or 1999 or 2000) because these are start years for a downward trend to present? Surely not. Look at the figures again from 1999.

  1999 - 0.302
  2000 - 0.277
  2001 - 0.406
  2002 - 0.455
  2003 - 0.465
  2004 - 0.444
  2005 - 0.475
  2006 - 0.421
  2007 - 0.399
  2008 - 0.280

  The five years following 2001 were all hotter. How then can it be said global warming "stopped" in 2001? The peak temperature is at 2005, but I nominate 2003 because the polynomial trend curves from 1988+ to present all peak around 2003 - 2004.

  The globe has been cooling for 5 years at the most, possibly for 3. 2001 can't be the year global cooling started because the globe kept getting warmer beyond that until 2005.On 'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick posted 1 year, 2 months ago 170 Responses

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  logocat

  You mock us at your peril. If I had a gauntlet, you'd have a ruddy cheek!

  :0)

  Nah. I can see the funny side of it. We're grown ups trying to save the world on a blog. I wonder how many of us actually get out and do something about what we're saying?On 'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick posted 1 year, 3 months ago 170 Responses

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  references

  And you should quote IPCC directly. They say:

  Cite: For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES
  emission scenarios.

  That's a 20 year window starting from 2006. Bit early to be talking about that projection mid-2008. Unless, of course, you believe temperature should increase monotonically with CO2 rise. I doubt you make that mistake yourself, but I asked above to make sure.On 'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick posted 1 year, 3 months ago 170 Responses

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  your contention max?

  Quote: "there has been a cooling trend over period 2001 to the present and this is significant because it coincides with record human CO2 emissions and raises serious questions about the validity of the IPCC prediction of 0.2C per decade warming in the early 21st century"

  Could this be the point you've been hedging at?

  If it is, do you assert that noise (weather variability) cannot dominate an underlying trend for ten years - that any 10-year cooling trend over the last century or so seriously undermines AGW theory?On 'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick posted 1 year, 3 months ago 170 Responses