Black Wallaby’s Recent Comments

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  Andrew Dessler seems reticent

  Andrew, it may well be that readers here are wondering why you do not respond to the questions to you above.  You were able to make a new post just a few days ago, so presumably your silence is not because you are out of touch.  You are not faced with a trick question, but a straightforward enquiry on scientific logic and scientific etiquette.   Lurkers et al must wonder why you are so slow to respond!
  On There is no negative feedback in the climate system posted 8 months, 3 weeks ago 51 Responses

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  Peter Martin on Aussie Bushfires (part 2)

  Dammit, It's raining up in Queensland again, and the fifth one day cricket game decider between Oz and the Kiwis, is washed out.  (last I looked)

  Meanwhile, as further clarification on your following comment:
  

  It may be worth noting that the gap between the above bushfire events is: 88 years, 30 years, 14 years, and now 6 years. Which is what you'd expect, of course, if the Aussie climate was indeed getting warmer.

  Out of the original list of nearly 30 major bushfires in Victoria alone, since 1850, I picked five, upon which you made the above observation.  
  That of 1969 was a particularly memorable shock to me because of the tragedy of 17 people dying from a grass fire, just weeks earlier, on the first four lane highway I had travelled on immediately after getting off the plane from England.  This particular fire was atypical of all other major fires.
  That of 2003 was of truly massive proportions, somewhat like that of 1939, and of long duration in Victoria.  However, unlike the tragic 1939 fires, no human lives were lost, and it is largely forgotten in Victoria except by mountain and bush-lovers.

  Thus, I might just as well have excluded these two atypical fires from my list of five:

  1969 - 8 January
  280 fires broke out on the 8th of January 1969. Of these, 12 grass fires reached major proportions and burnt 250,000 hectares. Areas seriously affected included Lara, Daylesford, Dulgana, Yea, Darraweit, Kangaroo Flat and Korongvale. Twenty-three people died, including 17 motorists at Lara, trapped on the Geelong to Melbourne freeway. The fires also destroyed 230 houses, 21 other buildings and more than 12,000 stock.

  2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
  Eighty seven fires were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 "Black Friday" bushfires. Burning for 59 days before being contained, the Alpine fires burnt over 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes and over 9,000 livestock, with thousands of kilometres of fencing also being destroyed. Areas affected include Mt Buffalo, Bright, Dinner Plain, Benambra and Omeo.

  Then we would have had for the big ones:

  1851, 1939, 1983, and the one now in progress.  (please pray for low winds)

  So what were your sums, and conclusions again?On CNN, ABC, WashPost, and AP blow Australian wildfire, drought, heat-wave story posted 8 months, 4 weeks ago 14 Responses

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  Amazing Debate with Sceptics:

  Amazingdrx, I guess you are aware that the lead article here is by Joe Romm, a qualified climate scientist, whom is very active here at Gristmill and other weblogs.
  I notice that you have had an exchange with blogger ChristophersJ, whom is of your ilk, although he does debate a bit more than you, and I would like to refer that he at least has agreed with me that some claims made by Joe up above, are false.  You have also probably noticed a newcomer to this weblog; Peter Martin.  He is long and firmly entrenched in the paradigm of AGW on other weblogs, and makes a rather uncharacteristic, non contributory comment above.  However, if you would like to see how an ardent AGW alarmist should debate us sceptics, that is by contributing to the debate, see what Peter has to say on Joe's What's climate got to do with it? On Australia faces collapse as climate change kicks in posted 8 months, 4 weeks ago 50 Responses

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  Peter Martin on Aussie Bushfires

  Thanks Peter for your reasoned contribution to the debate, but let`s look more closely at your first point.
  

  It may be worth noting that the gap between the above bushfire events is: 88 years, 30 years, 14 years, and now 6 years. Which is what you'd expect, of course, if the Aussie climate was indeed getting warmer.

  
  First of all, the 2008 list of major bushfire history in Victoria alone; (the smallest mainland state); is more substantial than just those I detailed above.  Putting aside for the moment how to define the gravity of a bushfire, and what might cause it, these are the dates listed for Victoria alone for major fires.  (It is probably true to say that there are fires somewhere every year, that are relatively less serious)
  1851, 1898, Early 1900's# (1905, 1906, 1912, 1914, and 1919), 1926, 1932, 1939, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1952, 1962, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2003 [and now; 2009].  Those in bold are the ones I selected.  # ~1898 to ~1914 was a period of massive drought.

  The estimated size of the current bushfires so far is reportedly about 330,000 hectares, compared with  210,000 on Ash Wednesday + another less tragic 216,000 nearby in 1983, 1.3 million in 2003, (that's without NSW and the tragic ACT fires),  1.4 - 2.0 million in tragic 1939, and 5 million in 1851.  
  So, the tragedy of bushfires tends to be measured not in terms of their size, but in human life and assets loss.    
  In the current fires, it is a matter of chance that those townships-no-more were in their paths. Kinglake near me was particularly tragic, but it could be argued that it is perfectly designed for fire disaster when there is a northerly wind, because the long escape road is parallel to the fire-front, atop what is almost an escarpment.
  Once fires are started, commonly by lightning, (and ignoring the plight of the fire-fighters themselves), those 1,000+ degree centigrade flames pay little head to the ambient temperature.  The speed and ferocity of a bushfire front is exponentially related to wind speed.  As I write, it has been rather cool right now and ever since the 8th, but I just heard on the radio, that residents in parts of Healesville should be alert for ember attack.  So, around there, the wind seems to have picked-up.  (perfectly still here ~40 minutes away by car)
  The savagery of these fires has been from a combination of circumstances, but primarily strong northerly wind, followed by very dangerous southerly reversal as a cool front came through. Other factors include fuel accumulation and adequate planning etc, but all other things being equal, there does NOT appear to be any connection between global warming and wind speed.  (or lightning strikes or arsonists).  

  You also wrote:

  According to the Australian BOM, who do incidentally provide excellent data on historical weather and climate, there are parts of central Australia which have been warming at 0.6 deg C per decade for the last 40 years.
  http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps. ...
  And where did the high winds originate which were responsible for recent record high temperatures in Melbourne and Adelaide?  Yes. Where else but central Australia.

  I hope you are not suggesting that the high winds from the desert heart were a consequence of the temperatures there.
  It is actually the consequence of high and low pressures systems moving across typically from west to east.  The closer together that the isobars are, the stronger the wind.  A case in point was the recent SE heatwave, where there was mercifully almost no wind.
  Otherwise, I have no difficulty with what you wrote, but I think you need to understand the Bob_FJ post over at Harmless Sky, concerning the magnitude of anomalous temperature regional variation.  That post will probably appear here shortly, dare I say.On CNN, ABC, WashPost, and AP blow Australian wildfire, drought, heat-wave story posted 8 months, 4 weeks ago 14 Responses

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  Australian bushfires near Melbourne:

  I'll come back on some other issues above, but meanwhile, here is a quick cut and paste from a rather  long list of the more major bushfires (and grassfires) in my state since 1850.
  That of 1969 is by no means massive, but is unique and of memory to me because I was driven along that straight 4-lane highway during a heatwave, to take-up my new job in Geelong, right-off the plane from snow-bound South England, just weeks after that grassfire.
  Some of these historical fires extended into other States, and other states have had their own separate major fires.  Only the Victorian info is shown here.
  The current tragic fire near me is actually modest in scope, (historically), but it had some bad hits on some towns with especially disastrous circumstances.

  1851 - 6 February `Black Thursday'
  Fires covered a quarter of what is now Victoria (approximately 5 million hectares). Areas affected include Portland, Plenty Ranges, Westernport, the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. Approximately 12 lives, one million sheep and thousands of cattle were lost.

  1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday'
  From December 1938 to January 1939, fires burnt 1.5 to 2 million hectares, including 800,000 hectares of protected forest, 600,000 hectares of reserved forest and 4,000 hectares of plantations. The fire severity peaked on Friday January 13 - "Black Friday". The fires caused seventy one fatalities and destroyed more than 650 buildings and the township of Narbethong. The findings of the Royal Commission that was held following the fires were highly significant in increasing fire awareness and prevention throughout Australia.  [except that the most important recommendation of fire dug-outs (shelters) to save human life was as far as I can tell, not adopted]

  1969 - 8 January
  280 fires broke out on the 8th of January 1969. Of these, 12 grass fires reached major proportions and burnt 250,000 hectares. Areas seriously affected included Lara, Daylesford, Dulgana, Yea, Darraweit, Kangaroo Flat and Korongvale. Twenty-three people died, including 17 motorists at Lara, trapped on the Geelong to Melbourne freeway. The fires also destroyed 230 houses, 21 other buildings and more than 12,000 stock.

  1983 - 16 February `Ash Wednesday'
  Australia's most well-known bushfire event. Over 100 fires in Victoria burnt 210,000 hectares and caused forty seven fatalities. More than 27,000 stock and 2,000 houses were lost. Areas severely affected included Monivae, Branxholme, East Trentham, Mt Macedon, the Otway Ranges, Warburton, Belgrave Heights, Cockatoo, Beaconsfield Upper and Framlingham (see also Ash Wednesday

  2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
  Eighty seven fires were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 "Black Friday" bushfires. Burning for 59 days before being contained, the Alpine fires burnt over 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes and over 9,000 livestock, with thousands of kilometres of fencing also being destroyed.

  BTW, some may remember that the massive Victorian bushfires of 2003 were associated with those in NSW and the ACT, but 1983 was much worse in terms of asset loss including up north:
  

  The Canberra bushfires of 2003 caused severe damage to the outskirts of Canberra, the Australian capital city. Almost 70% of the Australian Capital Territory's pasture, forests and nature parks was severely damaged, and the renowned Mount Stromlo Observatory was destroyed. After burning for a week around the edges of the ACT, the fires entered the suburbs of Canberra on 18 January 2003. Over the next ten hours, four people died and more than 500 homes were destroyed or severely damaged, requiring a significant relief and reconstruction effort...

  On CNN, ABC, WashPost, and AP blow Australian wildfire, drought, heat-wave story posted 8 months, 4 weeks ago 14 Responses