Amelie Van Den Bos, Global Village of Beijing

Amelie Van Den Bos is program coordinator for Global Village of Beijing (GVB), and she is helping to organize Earth Day 2000 in China.

Horns blaring, people getting out of their cars, everyone in a hurry with no choice but to let the precious minutes go by -- a typical Beijing traffic jam. In the taxi on the way to see Denis Hayes and Earth Day Japan off this morning, I was stuck in this kind of traffic jam for about half an hour. At least it gave me time to reflect on the results of our Tuesday meeting with Mr. Zhou Dadi, president of the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center.

When Denis asked Mr. Zhou about the automobile and its future in China, Mr. Zhou began by talking about the past. Thirty years ago, most Chinese people rode bicycles, no matter the time, weather, or distance. In 1980, there were only 2 million vehicles in the entire country. Now there are 20 million vehicles. Every year, 1 million cars and minivans are produced in China.

Mr. Zhou proceeded to explain that in China, cars are very expensive. Prices are at least three times higher than in the West, due to import taxes rather than environmental disincentives. For example, a Toyota Camry in China costs 450,000 RMB ($56,250). In addition, car maintenance costs are estimated at 10,000 RMB ($1,250) per year, equal to the average annual salary.

So how can Chinese people afford cars? Half of the cars in China are purchased with government money for use by government officials. But in the future, it will be easier to own a car. Volkswagon and Honda have opened factories in China, and if China enters the WTO, the import tariff will drop by 20 percent.

Given this information, Denis wondered aloud about China's perspective on renewable energy. In response, Mr. Zhou described the Great Leap Forward. In the late 1950s, Chairman Mao plunged the whole country into one of the greatest failed economic experiments in human history. The Chinese people were told to build blast furnaces and melt down everything from farm tools to cooking implements in order to increase steel production. Large numbers of rural workers abandoned their fields for the steel effort and caused an enormous drop in grain output. Combined with bad weather and the withdrawal of Soviet aid, the result of this experiment was a famine and the deaths of at least 30 million people. Mr. Zhou said that developed countries should not expect China to take the risk of leaping from the coal era toward renewable energy -- the Chinese people have not forgotten the dangers involved when gambling with untested theories. Economically, China currently ranks seventh in the world, and it will not forfeit that standing lightly.

Concerned about China's stance regarding renewable energy, Denis asked what China's plans were: "Is anything beyond subways being considered as an alternative to the private car-based transportation system?" At this point, Mr. Chen Heping broke into the conversation and said that in the future the Chinese government wants to create a market for clean fuel and high-efficiency automobiles. From the government's point of view, some of the main advantages of car-based transportation are that it requires less government initiative and promotes economic development. China is currently implementing higher auto emission standards and traffic management to make this system viable both in the present and the near future.

As I sat resignedly in the taxi and stared at the dim outlines of cars ahead, I couldn't help but feel little hope. Burdened by history and an all-consuming desire for short-term economic gain, China's transportation future seems to be without definite long-term plans. The carefree words of Mr. Zhou represent the general attitude of Chinese officials, asking the U.S. to act on its own advice before urging China to do so.