You got to know when to hold 'em

Republicans are bluffing on drilling 19

Republicans have mastered a political technique that seems to work on Democrats every time: the projection of strength. No matter the issue, when it comes up for dispute Republicans claim that Americans support their position; they claim that Democrats are out of touch with ordinary folk; they claim that Democrats are on defensive; they put forward bill after bill, press release after press release, stunt after stunt, trumpeting their alleged advantage.

Faced with this predictable and oft-repeated tactic, Dems cave again and again. Told they're on the defensive, they go on the defensive. They start trying to split the difference with the Republican position and shift the focus to other issues. And the public notices. Faced with a choice between bold wrongness and mealy-mouthed hedging, they'll go with the wrongness.

It's a weird form of hypnotism, and it's playing out before our eyes in the energy debate. Republicans are widely loathed, they're getting creamed on the economy, and with Obama's overseas trip, creamed on national security, they know their presidential candidate is a dud, they've got no new answers on the energy crisis they helped create ... yet they've got the entire D.C. establishment convinced that their drill-and-burn message is a winner.

And Democrats are buying it; now they're out emphasizing that they love drilling too! (Except here but not there, this lease but not that lease, this pace not that pace.) The entire Democratic Party has gone in to a defensive crouch, trying to match Republicans oil gimmick for oil gimmick -- speculator-bashing, windfall profit taxes, use-it-or-lose-it legislation, etc. etc. They are showing the American public yet again that they are the choice for people who like less-Republican Republicans.

But it's all based on a bluff. It's BS. Dems are getting duped. It's true that the public is concerned about gas prices, and it's true they will support virtually anything that looks like bold action, but it's simply not true that they are attached to drilling specifically. If they are polled in a way that sets drilling against other alternatives, other alternatives win. They want something done, but there's no need to accept the Republican framing that something has to mean getting more oil in the market.

More on this in a subsequent post.

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. JMG's avatar

    JMG Posted 8:58 am
    24 Jul 2008

    IndeedNoam Chomsky has repeatedly made the point that the American people NEVER supported any of Reagan's positions; in poll after poll, the Democratic positions prevailed, but the Democratic Party poo-bahs -- fresh from reasserting their control by torpedoing Jimmy Carter -- bent over and told the press that they couldn't possibly resist such a ravishing virile force of nature as the old Raygun.
    Walter Karp makes the same point -- since 1880, it is the Democratic Party "leadership" that does most of the heavy lifting for Republican reactionary positions.

    The 5% Project

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  2. Russ Posted 9:22 am
    24 Jul 2008

    maybe the ice will break soonThe Republicans' positions are loathesome and economically disastrous, and the people want them less and less. The Democrats are confused and cowardly, so their positions don't matter, and the people want them less and less.
    Maybe both of these rotten organizations will crack up soon, and we'll actually start to have some real political open space in this country, instead of the ice-jam we've had for so long.  

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  3. josullivan58 Posted 9:32 am
    24 Jul 2008

    I hope David is not rightIts possible the Democrats might be agreeing with the Republicans in talk only. The Democrats endgame hopefully is delaying until after elections when the Republicans will be even weaker.

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  4. wesrolley Posted 9:32 am
    24 Jul 2008

    Answer this for meYou say the Republicans push an unpopular agenda and that the Democrats let them get away with it.  Neither sound like political parties that we want running this country.  
    So, why then do so many turn away from the idea of a third party based on the assumption that "they can't win."  
    Environment be damned, as long as we win the White House.
    That is not the future that I want.

    Wes Rolley



    CoChair - EcoAction Committee

    Green Party US

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  5. David Roberts's avatar

    David Roberts Posted 9:34 am
    24 Jul 2008

    JosullivanI should be clear: the Dems absolutely do not agree with Republicans on this. It is very much a strategy to get them through the next election, when they assume they'll have larger majorities and a Dem president.

    grist.org

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  6. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 10:32 am
    24 Jul 2008

    Walter Karp a good read nowNot that I want to get too cynical, but the Democrats, since 1865, have been in the position of being the opposition party, with the Republicans in the position of being the ruling party.  Historically, the Democrats didn't propose much, but were there in case the Republicans screwed up so bad that people wanted something different.
    That's how FDR got elected, but he actually did some things -- partly because there was a very strong Left that was breathing down his neck.  He also famously told some people who were trying to convince him of an action, "Go make me do it".
    So now the Democrats have something of a legacy of doing something.  But unless there is strong grassroots push on them, they will simply crouch and wait for power to fall into their laps.

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  7. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 11:11 am
    24 Jul 2008

    It works...because it's the truth!

    I'm a Johnny Come Lately to the Republican Party.  And you know what...the thing is, the people who are in it, by and large, are ordinary people!   In fact, they are the people the Liberals never talk about.   In the Liberal view of the world everyone is either, a Super Rich Do-Gooder who solves the problems of the planet with technologies and foundations, or they are hip bloggers living in condoes in Seattle's Belltown, or they are a downtrodden Poor Person, who goes around punching people and killing them, but only because the System is to blame.    There is no room in the Lib Cosmology for the 80 percent of people who live in the suburbs and go to work and have health care because of their job and who pay a mortgage.   The reason the Republican message is so powerful is because most people, if they took an honest look at their prospects and circumstances, would be Republicans...

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  8. Jason D Scorse's avatar

    Jason D Scorse Posted 11:34 am
    24 Jul 2008

    I think you are right.....David, but the key is that the Dems have to show that they're doing something for people's economic pain (whether justified or not). As I pointed out in my post today, this is not so difficult because the public is on the Dems side.
    As usual, jabailo, you provide excellent comic relief- Republicans are the party of the "ordinary people"- classic- I love it- you're the 1st person I've met you actually has become a Republican under George Bush's reign- the other Republicans I know are running as far from the GOP as they can without crossing the Mexico or Canadian border....

    Economic Illiteracy Harms The Planet! http://www.voicesofreason.info.

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  9. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 1:38 pm
    24 Jul 2008

    Bailo, do Republicans like bike lanes?

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  10. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 5:07 pm
    24 Jul 2008

    Riddle Me This, AristotleBailo, do Republicans like bike lanes?
    I am a Republican.

    I like bike lanes.
    Therefore, some of the class of people known as Republicans, like bike lanes.

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  11. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 1:50 am
    25 Jul 2008

    But more Democrats like bike lanesthan Republicans, I would assume, both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers.

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  12. MattKirby Posted 2:35 am
    25 Jul 2008

    A flawed strategy but possibly the only oneIt is a strategy and I'm glad that was clarified.  Unfortunately, it may be the only strategy available in this short time period.  The Republican leadership and the Drill Here, Drill Now crowd has millions backing their campaign, just to convince the American people that drilling will lower their gas prices.  So they've already created the discourse (they've been creating it for years) and poll after poll says that Americans are saying "drill in my backyard if it will lower gas prices."  This offshore drilling cropped up in a matter of days when Congress returned from recess in early July and reached a fever pitch of hysteria within a week.  With that kind of time scale there's not much hope of changing the discourse that has been in place for years.  At this point it's a matter of stalling long enough to make Americans realize that there are other options.
    Congress will be recessing after next week and it is during that month that we have to push with everything we have.  The House and Senate will reconvene in September and be forced to act.  During August, we have to pressure them to act in the country's best interest.  
    http://www.sierraclub.org/wildlegacy/blog/

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  13. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 3:07 am
    25 Jul 2008

    But there's no short-term solutionto higher prices -- but there has to be some kind of alternative proposal, or else the Republicans have the only proposal, unless it's just "not that proposal".
    The only thing I can think of is to push immediately building high-speed rail, light rail, any rail, putting freight on rail, mortgages near transit, etc. -- mandate all plug-ins by some date?  But none of this helps people in the short-term -- but then, neither does drilling.

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  14. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 3:38 am
    25 Jul 2008

    A-S-S-U-M-E

    I would assume, both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers.
    This is what happens when you assume:
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=tKlWGZHEO7Q

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  15. josullivan58 Posted 4:02 am
    25 Jul 2008

    My clarificationNo the Democrats don't agree with the Republicans, but as David accurately notes the Democrats have a special talent for folding.
    I am hoping the Democrats won't fold on oil drilling.

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  16. Jason D Scorse's avatar

    Jason D Scorse Posted 4:26 am
    25 Jul 2008

    Pelosi holding firmcheck it
    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/07/24/Pelosi_House_wont_ ...

    Economic Illiteracy Harms The Planet! http://www.voicesofreason.info.

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  17. zqahtt Posted 12:01 pm
    25 Jul 2008

    truth?part of post from jabailo "have health care because of their job"
    The republican politicians are the ones backing efforts by employers to stop providing health care benefits and shift the cost to the individual employees.

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  18. Wolverine Posted 5:33 am
    26 Jul 2008

    What The Democrats AreThe Republicans are the party of the business class and represent the most right wing values of corporate America.  The Democrats are supposed to represent average folks, but instead are merely the liberal voice of corporate America.*  Not much of a choice, though that's not my point.
    The reason that Democrats cave so easily is that they don't represent the right values in the first place.  Democrats get massive contributions from corporations just as Republicans do.  Bill Clinton actually got more financial support from the ruling class than George Bush did when they ran against each other.
    If you support private autos, as the Democrats do, you also support the oil and auto industries along with all other industries needed for private auto travel, despite public comments to the contrary.  So when Republicans say that high gas prices are hurting people and that we must drill as much as possible, you have no choice but to either agree or propose other destructive methods to continue our ecologically destructive lifestyles.  It takes people with alternative visions to oppose destructive policies unequivocally and not cave in to crap like this.  There is no chance that Democrats will ever do this.
    * The Progressive Caucus is obviously not included in this description, but it's less than 10% of the Democratic Party and is much closer in ideology to the Green Party that to its own.

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  19. amazingdrx Posted 2:57 pm
    27 Jul 2008

    Yep WolviAppealing to conventional wisdom, that is what the party does.  leadershop doesn't lead it panders to the lowest common mass delusion in the media.
    Reality has to break through if change is going to happen.  Do we have enough influence to get that to happen?  As an amorphous movement.  
    I think we have leaders who want to do it, Gore and others.  How do we help them get the message across?  Donating to and supporting most environmental orgs seems useless, as they have become shills for lobbying as usual.
    It's a conundrum.

    http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

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