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Posted 1:14 PM on 4 Apr 2008
by David Roberts -
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David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.
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Sean Casten Posted 5:22 am
04 Apr 2008
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kmp Posted 6:39 am
04 Apr 2008
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Sean Casten Posted 7:18 am
04 Apr 2008
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bw Posted 8:43 am
04 Apr 2008
For a complete exploration of the inevitible demise of civilization, check our Derrick jensen's two volume series, "Endgame."
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Corey McKrill Posted 8:49 am
04 Apr 2008
Frequently asked technical questions about Grist's newsletters and website.
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LPS Posted 9:29 am
04 Apr 2008
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LGT Posted 10:31 am
04 Apr 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory
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LPS Posted 12:01 pm
04 Apr 2008
So, rather than stifling critical thought, I would suggest reading the original thesis, reading the critique, then read:
Olduvai Revisited
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caniscandida Posted 2:36 pm
04 Apr 2008
Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.
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amazingdrx Posted 2:57 pm
04 Apr 2008
She climbed into the gondala and noticed a magnum of champaigne Sean had forgotten to open.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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amazingdrx Posted 3:05 pm
04 Apr 2008
But I agree, the maxim, "keep it simple stupid", tends to eliminate complexity and corruption.
That's why I keep harping on simple subsdidy diversion as a GHG solution, instead of the very corruptable complexity of cap and trade, for instance. No one understands the complexity of nature or even the more artificial nature of markets.
As successful traders often remind themselves, the market knows everything, we know nothing.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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caniscandida Posted 3:06 pm
04 Apr 2008
In Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages, the new Germanic states of Western Europe preserved certain Roman cultural forms, while adapting some traditional Germanic ones; and the new Arab Muslim states of the eastern and southern Mediterranean also depended on both Greco-Roman and Persian models and traditions. It is certainly not true that the Roman Empire simply fell one afternoon, and the next morning, everybody woke up and had to create new ways of life from scratch.
Already in the 3rd and 4th centuries, before anything in the Roman Empire could be said to have "fallen," philosophic, religious, cultural and artistic developments were moving remarkably away from the high "classical" civilization of the previous three Golden and Silver centuries. Should the conscious resolution to abandon the old ways and styles, and pursue new ones, be counted as a "demise"?
On the other hand, the Early Middle Ages are not called the "Dark Ages" for nothing, though the title has fallen out of fashion. The failure to preserve the recorded knowledge, especially the literature, of classical antiquity might very well be considered a "demise."
So, based on philosophical/historical reasoning, even more than on "complexity theory," a prediction of the demise of our own civilization could easily be posited.
"The Olduvai Theory" is a very different kind of argument, it should be noted, based not on philosophy or history or the study of complex systems, but on a specific unique character of our civilization.
Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.
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amazingdrx Posted 4:19 pm
04 Apr 2008
Promotion of incompetence is how the corruption is introduced into the system. Like the good old "Peter Principle". Is bush really honestly as stupid and incompetent as he seems to be?
With bush it is self delusion mixed with lying mixed with incompetence.
Plausible self delusion should go right up there with plausible deniability as a main principle of the corruption of complex societal systems.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Ron Steenblik Posted 7:27 pm
04 Apr 2008
These are only my personal opinions.
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stevenearlsalmony Posted 8:40 pm
04 Apr 2008
2007 EXCHANGE OF IDEAS BETWEEN FRIENDS(and perhaps timely in 2008)
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Dear B,
In the light of E. O. Wilson's comments about small creatures and today's report from the World Conservation Union (IUCN) that more than 41,000 species of animals and plants are now on its ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST, do you think it is too early to consider that the evolutionary success of the human species may not be guaranteed? Perhaps it is not too late to consider how the human species in our time could inadvertently precipitate a "Human Community Collapse" by adamantly insisting upon more unbridled growth of business enterprise and human numbers now overspreading the Earth.
I am concerned that after threatening biodiversity with extinction and the environment with irreversible degradation, and also dissipating the limited resources of Earth, humankind will become an unexpected threat to its own survival.
Sincerely,
Steve
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Hi Steve,
You bring up a very good point, and one that is foremost in the minds of everyone with environmental awareness. The notion of sustainability does not seem to have been infused in equal value to progress made in both the industrial and technological revolutions. When we look closely, it is as if we are but children playing with new toys, not grasping just what they mean nor thinking very far into the future. Anyone who studies simple biology knows that unchecked growth cannot last, that eventually the system that supported whatever it is gets out of balance, and then...well...things change. So at the very least we are looking for sweeping change. How much of it we will see in our short lifespan is uncertain, but what is certain is that even now we are observing first-hand some negative effects of our actions in the past. Nature is very efficient, and certainly will take care of things one way or another. I agree with what you suggest, that we could benefit from applying caution and implementing the enlightened consideration of experts in our approach to the future. Application of knowledge requires official sanction and public policy, which as you know is not so easy to achieve. Hopefully, the brightest minds among us who post their knowledge and recommendations in research & books and who broadcast their views and information on things like TED TALKS will encourage our policy makers to get on the same page, i.e., as stewards of the earth and its abundance rather than exploiters. Ultimately, I have hope, and think a hopeful attitude can have a snowball effect. I'm pretty sure hope is the official stance of this organization, by the way, and why a forum such as this is so encouraging.
Thanks, Steve, for your posts here and elsewhere on our blogs.
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Dear B,
Sometimes it looks to me as if some of our brothers and sisters are so focused on the accumulation of wealth and power, in feathering their own gigantic nests, frequenting exclusive clubs, flying private jets, sailing yachts and visiting exotic hideaways, that the "powers that be" have overlooked the certain requirements necessary for the maintenance of our planetary home, which is soon to become endangered by certain unbridled, distinctly human enterprises now overspreading the Earth.
How do things look to you?
Always,
Steve
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Steve,
I like the idea of everyone coming to see that we are definitely interconnected. Just as the bees and flowering plants need each other, so do we humans need the environment. The sooner we get truly sustainable in our stewardship of the environment, the better. The last 50 years have seen unprecedented wealth and technology, and a few have enjoyed advantages never dreamt of in the past. Hopefully, we will all start doing our part, even the very insulated among us. I'm actually quite optimistic, as I think there is so much positive focus for new energies coming along in young people, and a rededication to creative efforts to make the world a better place in those of us who are older. I certainly can imagine these things building on themselves. It starts right here, wherever we are.
B.
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Dear B,
I share your optimism. With good science as our guide and the adequate use of intelligence and other splendid gifts granted to human beings by God, we can choose to respond ably to the requirements of reality, whatsoever they may be.
Elders like me will hopefully be open to guidance of our young people, as you suggest, and also of the mothers of children, rather than holdfast to the outworn creeds of the children of men among us. The self-proclaimed masters of the universe in my not-so-great generation appear to have lost their way.
On the other hand, we cannot rule out the possibility that I am one of those unfortunate elders about whom I report, who has lost touch with good science, the natural order of living things, and the limitations imposed upon human life by the very nature of the biophysical world we inhabit.
I and my generation can and will do better. Of that I am certain.
Sincerely,
Steve
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ONWARD!
B.
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Dear B,
I believe this is one way to begin. We have to speak of topics that are taboo, just as we do here.
My greatest concern is that the undoing of the human species, and life as we know it, could inadvertently occur as a result of the adamant and relentless maintenance of SILENCE.
Silence is something to be feared. Silence is especially terrifying and potentially ruinous when it is actively employed as a tool for denying good science.
Thank YOU,
Steve
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Steve,
I don't mean to be flip, but the old saying comes to mind: "The more the merrier!" We can hope more voices will speak up for beneficial uses of our stunning technologies to forge a path to a wise, efficient, and fittingly sustainable paradigm for the future world. There is another saying that comes to mind should we fail to understand what we need to do, and that is, "That way lies madness." I am so looking forward to the tipping point, where all accept as a given the need to create and live in a balanced world. I know it is coming.
B.
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Dear B,
You make wonderful points. Let me see if I understand you well enough.
Would it be correct to say that we have a choice: either we can choose to accept the knowledge derived from the best available, good science and deploy that knowledge to maintain a sustainable world, one fit for human habitation, or we can fail to do what is necessary by holding fast to an unsustainable paradigm for the future world...and by continuing to defend flawed data derived from politically convenient and economically expedient mad science?
Always,
Steve
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...and having the wisdom to know the difference.
B.
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Dear B,
At least in my humble opinion, THIS IS COMMUNICATION!
Perhaps humanity has global challenges in the offing, challenges that are formidable, even as we begin to take the measure of them.
As we steady our focus on these challenges, it becomes evident that there may be no quick fixes to the problems with which we are presented. Business-as-usual brought us to this moment in human history, but cannot take us to the future we picture for our children.
Contemplate and picture in your mind the business-as-usual activities with which we are familiar. We can see that the unbridled growth of economic activities is overspreading the Earth.
Now for the hard part: questions.
Can the seemingly endless growth and the astonishing success of unregulated human production and consumption activities continue in the same old business-as-usual way and at their current scale on a relatively small, finite planet the size of Earth?
If the Earth is round and has physical limitations, is it reasonable and sensible to consider that there are limits to the unrestricted global growth of human activities on Earth?
Are there no alternatives to untethered economic globalization?
Are there no options to the unchecked per capita consumption of Earth's limited resources?
Who knows, before long questions like these will become a part of open discussions at international conferences, in governing bodies and spoken of by those in the mass media.
I and my generation are going to do better, much better.
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Steve,
Your questions almost answer themselves and wholly appeal to common sense. I believe that love of humanity, passion for life and a strong will to survive will eventually corral all of us into the same camp, which is good because we must work together to solve our problems. We may be lucky that things are getting so blatantly out of hand, because a cry for better will eventually emerge. Hat's off to any who can keep their heads while some around us are losing theirs. Like a teenager on a joy ride, flagrant environmental abuses cannot have good results and therefore cannot last that long. The trick will be coming to the tipping point. I believe we are very very close. I hope others will participate in this inspiring conversation. We believe in the exchange of ideas and invites it with these blogs. Thanks so much for participating.
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Dear B,
Thanks to you, D., Al and the great scientists of the IPCC, it does appear more and more people are beginning to awaken, finally, with the coming of each new day, to something that is fresh and unforeseen about the world we inhabit.
I and our dearest colleagues have only become awakened just a matter of days earlier than those who are soon, or else eventually, to be released from their slumber.
Once awake, people are going to be able to see that while nothing about the surface of the Earth has changed, not really; everything about the wondrous landscape is different in unexpected ways.
When many in the human community perceive what you and other leaders are saying and doing, it will be as if they are seeing the world God blesses us to inhabit for the first time, I suppose.
That is going to make a difference.
All the best to you,
Steve
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amazingdrx Posted 12:52 am
05 Apr 2008
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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amazingdrx Posted 1:03 am
05 Apr 2008
This was the worst b-day party ever thought duuhbya. The secret service agents fished Scaife out of the pool and tossed him into the reanimation chamber in his limo.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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GreenMom Posted 1:41 am
05 Apr 2008
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stevenearlsalmony Posted 12:41 am
14 Apr 2008
Dear Friends,
We are seeing the emergence of a community of sorts that is passively connected in cyberspace and has as its mission the protection of human wellbeing and the preservation of environmental health, among other goals.
How do we advance from passive "cyber contact" to a grounded, more active connectedness for necessary human behavior change?
Thanks for your consideration.
Sincerely,
Steve
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