Will Iran actually eat our children?

No 5

As international attention focuses on Iran, everyone's shared assumption is that it's a huge and rising danger, thanks to [cue ominous music] the power of oil. And indeed, with so much oil, why would it need to build nuclear power plants? Clearly those are for weapons. Fear Iran! Nay, invade it, quick, before it eats our children!

Well, via Matt Yglesias, I find this piece in the Washington Post drawing attention to a new study of the Iranian oil industry by Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University. According to Stern ...

... the Iranian oil industry is actually in something of a death spiral. Iran has been missing its OPEC quota of late, and while high oil prices have masked the decline by keeping revenue up, production has been declining. Higher domestic energy demand in Iran combined with difficulty in attracting foreign investment and other economic problems, he argues, make a rapid decline in oil exports likely -- ending in the "extinction" of Iranian oil exports in 2014-15.

Oh, well.

What does Stern think we should do?

Essentially, Mr. Stern concludes that if the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country.

You mean ... not invade? Appeaser!

(Of course, the thought of a dying, flailing, nuclear-armed Iran isn't exactly a lullaby either ...)

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. Zarkov Posted 7:45 pm
    02 Jan 2007

    Regional destabilizationIt seems that if Iraq goes into civil war, Saudi Arabia will take sides against the Shiites...and the real war will be Iran et al against the rest.
    Destabilizing Iraq was a godsend for Iran.

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  2. froggy Posted 11:19 pm
    02 Jan 2007

    Will Iran actually eat our children?good, there are too many ppl on the planet anyhow. and because americans are the plumpest (which follows that they are the juicyist), i would also start with them...

    froggy

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  3. Tom Philpott's avatar

    Tom Philpott Posted 1:04 am
    03 Jan 2007

    Knotty problem......considering that Israel, India, and Pakistan are all packing nuclear heat. Maybe the diplomatic push should be toward regional disarmament, rather than countenancing nukes in those places and then threatening to invade Iran? If Iran gets nukes, then Saudi Arabia won't be far behind. But if we invade Iran with Iraq in tatters, then there will be untold chaos. What a world.

    Victual Reality

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  4. amazingdrx Posted 1:13 am
    03 Jan 2007

    Wicked Witch Inc. LLC?Soylent Green ...virgin!?  That's what allah meant maybe? The finest soylent food product ever made!  Neo-conservatives no doubt have this trademark registered already.
    Wolfi ready to fund soylent plants all over the developing world!  The younger the food source the less contaminated it is.
    Obvious why they sent him to run The World Bank.  Organ sales alone will make the Carlyle Group richer than gaawd.

    http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

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  5. bookerly Posted 7:08 am
    03 Jan 2007

    Hmmmm

    Of course, the thought of a dying, flailing, nuclear-armed America isn't exactly a lullaby either ...
     (grin)
    patrick

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