Why the IPCC bomb was a dud

It just ain’t sexy 16

Matthew C. Nisbet tells the depressing story of how the IPCC report was released on Friday to thunderous ... silence, failing to break through "the juggernaut narratives of Iraq, the 2008 election, and the weekend's SuperBowl."

I can't hear you

One thing Nisbet doesn't stress enough is that there were numerous extremely good pieces in print media. The report could not have asked for clearer, stronger coverage in the major papers and newsmagazines. But it failed to seep into the larger public consciousness. Nisbet notes that it was all but an afterthought on cable news (read the painful transcript at the bottom of his post). You couldn't pay me enough to watch cable news, but I keep pretty close watch on the political blogosphere, and I can testify that it didn't even rise to the level of afterthought there. It received at best one token post from most of the blogs I track. Even that coverage mostly focused on the old-and-moldy story of AEI offering $10K to writers who would cast doubt on the report.

Some blame for this goes to the green community, which as usual had no coordinated, savvy media campaign planned. But in the end, there's no way around the fact that global warming just isn't the kind of story we're built to pay attention to.

You simply won't get a more thoroughly tested and reviewed, more credible and definitive statement on any scientific issue than we've just gotten on global warming from the IPCC. This is something of a reductio ad absurdum of the deep conviction among progressives that "getting the facts out" is the primary challenge around climate change. The facts aren't gonna get any more out than this.

It's time we all learn and internalize the lesson that's been beating us about the head and shoulders for years: by themselves, facts are inert.

Knowing and understanding is not a passive process of absorbing facts. It's an active process. Facts must be sticky; they must have hooks that connect them to our lives and passions. To truly absorb them we must be able to actively engage them and fit them into the skein of narratives and background understandings of which our worldviews are woven.

The facts are out about global warming. But most people aren't engaged, not really. That leaves two options:

  1. Find some way of engaging people with a problem that's long, slow, invisible, intangible, and immune to near-term solutions.
  2. Find some way of getting good policies in place without a groundswell of popular support.

Most people reflexively assume we have to do the first. I'm beginning to incline to the second. Much more on that in a later post.

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. bhurley Posted 4:47 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Wow, my impression was just the oppositeI was actually struck by how much media attention this IPCC report got, compared with the earlier reports. Front page news on the NY Times, at least on the website, which kept modifying the headline all day, I wish I'd kept screenshots of the different titles. It was the very first item on the Radio-Canada (French-language version of CBC) television news on Friday night, and they did an in-depth report on it later in the program. I don't remember any coverage like that with the previous IPCC reports.
    If it got buried by other stories in the mainstream media, it's probably due to the fact that many editors felt the IPCC wasn't saying anything the public hasn't already heard, they just haven't heard it from the IPCC before. And also there's the issue of the MEGO effect (My Eyes Glaze Over), which makes mainstream media editors leery of climate change science stories in general. "Too complicated, people will zap the channel or skip over the story."
  2. Benny Big Eye Posted 5:10 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Having difficulties following this threadI don't understand Nisbett. I thought the report got a great deal of attention. So count me confused....

    Benny Big Eye
  3. Lisa Hymas's avatar

    Lisa Hymas Posted 5:15 am
    06 Feb 2007

    For what it's worthI heard a number of non-enviro friends remark on the report -- it clearly seeped into their consciousness. Where that gets us -- well, that's another question.  
  4. Gar Lipow's avatar

    Gar Lipow Posted 5:23 am
    06 Feb 2007

    without popular support>   2. Find some way of getting good policies in place without a groundswell of popular support.
    >Most people reflexively assume we have to do the first. I'm beginning to incline to the second. Much more on that in a later post.
    This should be interesting. However in your post on this,you might want to avoid words like "reflexively". If you have come up with a new and innovative tactic or strategy it might be wise not imply that the rest of environmental movement is on automatic pilot, or is foolish or unthinking or blinkered or too narrow or something like that for not having thought of it first. If you have something new, or even have rediscovered something that is being overlooked, at least consider it is because you are smart rather than because everyone else is stupid.  :)

  5. Kit Stolz's avatar

    Kit Stolz Posted 5:32 am
    06 Feb 2007

    You Want Depressing? Check out Larry KingWhen Larry King brought up this issue on his hugely-popular show, he had on a couple of science advocates and well-known denier Richard Lindzen, who when asked for "his read" on the controvery, said:
    "I think it's mainly just like little kids locking themselves in dark closets to see how much they can scare each other and themselves."
    This is a scientist speaking? Dr. Heidi Cullen, from the Weather Channel, challenged him indirectly, and Bill Nye, the science guy, challenged him directly, but the "balanced" format, the inane nitpicking of inconsequential details, and the frequent cutaways made real debate almost impossible. King then wrapped up by putting his thumb on the scales, saying of Lindzen -- "He's from M.I.T. he knows what he's talking about."
    Oy.
    For the transcript, see: http://achangeinthewind.typepad.com/achangeinthewind/2007 ...
  6. David Roberts's avatar

    David Roberts Posted 5:39 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Point taken, GarI guess my point was that it's conventional wisdom that we need something like a "sea change in consciousness at the grassroots." That notion's been around so long now that lots of people don't stop to question it. I don't know that I'm ready to say it's wrong, just that I'd like to complicate the question a little and introduce some countervailing considerations. And not because I'm smart, just cause they pay me to fill up this blog every day. What am I gonna do, write anti-anti-dirty-hippie screeds all day every day? (Believe me, I'm tempted.)

    www.grist.org
  7. d41295 Posted 5:48 am
    06 Feb 2007

    nothing newThe IPCC report didn't get more than one day's worth of attention because it didn't really say anything new. So scientists are worried about global warming and attribute some of it to man. So what? They've been saying this for many years now. The new IPCC numbers are just an adjustment of previously reported details. There really isn't anything so new here that people haven't already heard it before.
  8. Biodiversivist's avatar

    Biodiversivist Posted 7:29 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Hmmm, d41295That was a simple explanation, and maybe the right one. Which brings up another question. Rather than grow more alarmed, are people going to burn out and stop listening? Alarm bells lose their effectiveness once they become chronic background noise.

    In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
  9. sunflower's avatar

    sunflower Posted 7:54 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Can you hear the waterfall?The IPCC just said the waterfall is closer to our drifting boat, and we are accelerating forward, same old stuff.  The silence is strange.

  10. cieldumort Posted 8:09 am
    06 Feb 2007

    Larry KingBetween that class act by Larry King & the fine commentaries from the preeminent scientific brainiac, Glenn Beck and his esteemed guest J Inhofe, CNN has once again shown how to report news in the 2000s: Read the GOP talking points.

  11. Jones Posted 12:10 pm
    06 Feb 2007

    Are you people kidding?From where I sit, there's been a huge change in the public mood. You never get "sea changes in consciousness at the grassroots", people's worldviews are more like huge battleships that take forever to turn around. I think you're too close to the glacier to see how fast it's retreating. Now, before I use another metaphor, consider some of the things that are new since Feb 6, 2006:

    Cellulosic ethanol

    George Bush admitting AGW

    "Carbon neutral"--word of the year

    an avalanche of previously skeptical or hesitant notables "coming out" on AGW

    Al Gore is an admired public figure

    the Vanity Fair "green" issue.
    Now I realise what these add up to is not: concrete action. But we're talking about the public consciousness.
    Details of the IPCC report have been trickling out for months now, and it's still not officially finished yet, and it's a really dry, detailed scientific document stuffed with abstruse concepts and a tangle of "likely", "very likely", "extremely likely", "more likely than not"... a story like this getting the lead in most of the media around the world is a pretty big deal. Did you expect fireworks?
    I don't expect people to talk about it much, but I think that for many this was the thing that quietly confirmed what they've been thinking about for a long time. It's the last nail in the coffin of the denial stage. That whole stupid debate is officially over, and that's HUGE.
  12. A Siegel Posted 12:44 pm
    06 Feb 2007

    Which blogs ...I guess it depends on which you watch and engage in ...
    DailyKos, which certainly ranks up there in terms of political activist communities, has had a major upsurge of Global Warming-related discussions since the New Year.

  13. Biodiversivist's avatar

    Biodiversivist Posted 2:05 pm
    06 Feb 2007

    Fireworks would have been niceMaybe we were expecting a little too much.

    In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
  14. dotcommodity Posted 2:58 pm
    06 Feb 2007

    Listen to the rightwing talkmediaI remember the 60's in New Zealand, and the obsesive attention of rightwing radio to "Womens Lib" - the incessant putdowns, mockery, hysteria.
    You never hear that sort of stuff now. Even the right wing fields female attackdogs like Coulter, female politicians for Senate seats.
    But those days were the last throes of the old guard. Within a year, 1968, job openings were no longer restricted by sex. It was over for their side.
    Likewise, now:

    To determine the reaction, don't listen to us grist readers in the choir, NYT readers, dailykos diaryists etc, listen to rightwing talkradio.
    That same obsessive attention of the rightwing talkmedia is now lazer-focused on the same kind of mockery and hysterical denial that preceded that sea change in the 60's  except now its all about mocking AGW.
    Mark my words, they are finished.

  15. Steve Bloom Posted 5:08 pm
    06 Feb 2007

    dotcommodity is onto something therePeriodically I grit my teeth and tune into Limbaugh, and when I did so this (Tuesday)morning it was to hear him inaugurate a global warming theme song ("Hellfire," which us boomers will all remember fondly).  He said he was doing this because of the increasing frequency of GW segments.  As far as I can tell, it's still the same old trash talk from him, but a whole lot more of it.  Recall that a couple of weeks ago his front page had TWC climatologist Heidi Cullen shoulder-to-shoulder with Nancy Pelosi for four days.  I've seen references to other media wingnuts similarly giving GW increased coverage.  
    It also became clear this AM that Monday's Fraser Institute event trashing the SPM had been a goose egg in terms of media coverage.  There's no way that would have happened a year ago.
    While I haven't tried to do any sort of count, there also seem to have been a whole lot of editorials and analysis pieces saying the debate is over.  This includes plenty of U.S. publications, although the big surprise for me was the Torygraph, which had just published Monckton's garbage a few months ago but changed its stance over the weekend.
    All in all, the trend seems good.

  16. Kira Posted 1:05 am
    07 Feb 2007

    Never on a FridayI actually thought it got a lot of attention. But why release on a Friday? Shades of the Bush administration!
    I think if it hadn't been for the whacky weather (gw-related or not), this report, Al Gore, and AIT would have been ignored. Nuthin' like a 60-degree January day to make converts.

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