Originally posted at the NDN blog.
Of the various false solutions being proposed to the current oil shock perhaps none is more disingenous than the idea that it can be solved by drilling in the Alaskan wilderness and along the Outer Continental Shelf. This is the idea that the right wing media, recently John McCain, and now President Bush have been pushing as a cure-all for soaring oil prices. Since many Democrats oppose this drilling, the next false logical step is to say Democrats are to blame. This was the thrust of President Bush's energy proposal yesterday, one that only highlights the intellectual dishonesty and partisanship of this failed administration.
Is more drilling the answer? No, for three reasons.
First, the amount of potential oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is simply not enough to make a dent in global world consumption. The reserves of ANWR are estimated to equal current U.S. consumption in one year. The mere increase in China's consumption in the next few years will exceed the entire Alaskan reserves. Since the reserves would be harvested over decades, the quantity of oil they would produce each year would amount at most to a few drops in the global oil bucket.
Second, oil exploration and drilling takes years. Even if exploration began tomorrow, we would probably not see significant quantities of oil from Alaska or the OCS for close to a decade.
Third, the oil companies already have millions of acres allocated to them upon which they have not gotten around to exploring let alone drilling. When asked the delicate question, as some have been recently, why they have not explored these millions of acres to which the federal government has granted them rights, oil companies typically respond that the public should understand that oil exploration takes time.
There may be some opportunities for targeted, ecologically sensitive drilling off of America's shores that would make economic sense. But more drilling will not address either the current oil shock shock, or the long-term situation. And of course, it will worsen, not mitigate the climate.
John McCain’s troubles are the world’s troubles
Oil: enough energy to melt glaciers!
Comments
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DarthPetrol Posted 3:13 pm
19 Jun 2008
Second, market prices are set by the expectation of future supply and demand. Current markets are counting on the no-drill Democrat party to continue to do nothing. Leasing the 1002 and the OCS would change that futurue outlook. In the late 1990s excess production capacity of just 2 million barrels led to oil prices less than $20.
Third, there are many reasons acreage may be undeveloped. Often oil companies lease adjacent blocks that may contain one large contiguous oil field - they can produce from an adjacent field, sometimes companies shoot seismic and don't find anything, or costs to develop might be too high. Once found the oil may not be in commercial quantities. Oil companies PAY premiums to the government for the rights to drill. These rights are not forever and typically expire in 5 to 10 years, depending on the terms for that particular sale. Lee Raymond, former CEO of ExxonMobil perhaps said it best. Finding oil and gas is like looking for a needle in a haystack. Leasing acreage is being given a haystack.
Lastly, it is NOT ANWR. This is another lie that environmentalists tell. They show you pictures of the Brooks range and caribou and tell people that is where the drilling will be. Nope, the specific area is called the 1002 (Ten-oh-two) and it lies along the coastal plain. It was specifically set aside for petroleum development as part of the deal to create the ANWR. An environmental impact statement completed in 1986 said that the 1002 could be developed with limited environmental impact (with 1980s technology).
Drilling operations in the 1002 would ONLY take place during the winter. Above the Arctic circle the winter is dark 24 hours per day. There are no roads to the 1002 so companies would create ice roads to move equipment to the site. In the spring these ice roads thaw, leaving no trace. A single drill pad can directionally drill 20-50 wells going out in all directions, substantially reducing the footprint over the technology used to develop the North Slope.
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amazingdrx Posted 3:23 pm
19 Jun 2008
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/6/19/ ...
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Wolverine Posted 5:54 pm
19 Jun 2008
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314159265 Posted 8:30 pm
19 Jun 2008
Before you want to consume the last drops of domestic oil, make sure first that you consume them effectively.
You might consider leaving some resources for your children to exploit, or for the case of emergency.
Your current gas price trouble are not emergency but stupidity. The situation was to be expected since the early 1970ies (Remember the U.S. oil peak and the oil crisis?)
It all reminds me of the Easter Islanders chopping their last tree before dieing off.
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BlackBear Posted 9:03 pm
19 Jun 2008
The Islanders didn't die off right away. When they were discovered by Cook, they had devolved into bands of cannibalistic tribes that made constant war on each other with the apparant goal of getting a meal and knocking over each other's stone heads.
If we are to learn anything from this story it is that Americans are doomed. We're the fattest people in the world, so I expect we'll be attacked first.
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314159265 Posted 9:28 pm
19 Jun 2008
Now serious. Methinks if Americans keep avoiding reality, or (s)elect yet another incompetent/fossil administration, they are indeed doomed. The cliff close ahead. But there are still a few years left to fix things. The dollar is still fat enough. And there are still good brains around.
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GreyFlcn Posted 10:24 pm
19 Jun 2008
We're not talking about a significant quantity of oil.
Renewables on the other hand aren't so much physical raw materials, as they are design concepts, and policies.
Come up with a killer concept or backed by reliable policy, and it can expand like crazy.
The Prius for instance. It got it's conceptual start in Japan. But it really it got almost all of it's sales globally occurred in California.
Why? Strong Policy.
_
Furthermore, the reason that Renewables have been so much a drop in the bucket has more to do with policy than technology at the moment.
Over 90% of the non-R&D financing comes from either a PTC(Wind) or an ITC(Solar) (Not sure about Geo or Hyrdo)
And the Senate Republicans will only allow 1 year to be approved at any given time.
And each year the respective Tax credit lapses, the snowball effect momentum comes to a crashing halt. Which happened in 2000, 2002, and 2004. And so far, if Senate Republicans like John McCain have their say, it will be blocked for 2009 as well.
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/01/28/rene ...
You can't have scalable growth with policies that are completely unreliable.
Especially compared to other competiting capital intensive technologies like Coal and Nuclear which get their PTC/ITC approved for nearly a decade at a time.
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amazingdrx Posted 12:15 am
20 Jun 2008
The big US and UK oil companies just got their foothold in Iraq back. After a 31 year hiatus. is that why bushco wants 58 permanent bases in Iraq? Or is it just to give their business partner Bin Laden(s) an excuse to continue the jihad, so bushco can continue the very lucrative contracted out (to blackwater, halliburton, and friends) war on terror? I think it's both.
Wealthy fundamentalists will continue funding the jihad as long as US troops are on their holy soil.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Wolverine Posted 5:51 am
20 Jun 2008
First and foremost, EVERYTHING is about the environment. Without it, there'd be no life.
Second, your attitude that this issue is about math and that it's OK to consume and exploit natural resources while causing immense ecological and environmental destruction is totally immoral and shows a complete lack of any wisdom or spirituality.
As to wisdom, it's foolish to fail to recognize that we're all part of the web of life and that destroying any part of it causes some harm to ourselves. Moreover, no one knows which part destroyed will also destroy us, making this attitude even more foolish.
As to lack of spirituality, instead of all these false, idiotic, and harmful religions, people should work on feeling the connection between themselves, and the Earth and other species. Once one realizes those connections, one realizes that we're all just part of the same thing, so that an injury to any part of it is an injury to ourselves.
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DarthPetrol Posted 11:54 am
20 Jun 2008
If drilling is so bad, environmentally, then surely there must be an example somewhere you can point to.
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