Though the nation's pundits have decided that the primary race is over, someone failed to get Clinton the memo -- she is determined to stay in to the bitter end.
The next primaries are in West Virginia and Kentucky, states where the number of poor whites is high and consequently the Obama campaign expects to get crushed; there's a good chance that even if Clinton dropped out tomorrow, she'd still beat Obama in those states.
West Virginia and Kentucky are the second and third highest coal-producing states. They have, respectively, the highest and second-highest number of people employed by the coal industry [PDF] -- indeed, together they represent 46 percent of total coal mine employment in the country.
Facing this situation, what should Obama do? Clinton showed with the gas tax farce that there is no pander to "hard-working Americans, white Americans" too crass or desperate. She's been wallowing in ham-handed conservative populism, downing shots, eulogizing her mill-working grandfather, and recounting her youthful fishing trips. Next week she'll probably show up in a W.Va. coal mine swingin' a pick, shootin' small critters, and promising miners that she'll double their wages for the summer.
Should Obama try to keep up? Should he appeal to the economic and social anxieties of rural whites in W.Va. and Ky. by promising that he'll take care of Big Coal, and Big Coal will take care of them? He's already doing so in Kentucky.
Maybe there's another way, though. His response to Clinton's gas tax proposal was to reject it as a Washington gimmick that would offer the illusion of relief in the short-term -- long enough to get a politician into office -- but do nothing to address long-term energy issues. That rejection was coupled with a principled energy platform that would address those issues.
Why not try the same thing in W.Va. and Ky.? Start by telling the truth: As president, he would stop the expansion of dirty coal. No new coal plants would be built unless they could fully sequester their greenhouse gas emissions. He would offer R&D money, loan guarantees, and subsidies to assist in the development of cost-effective carbon capture and sequestration, but it's likely to take at least 10-20 years, and when/if it exists, there's no guarantee it would be more than a small portion of our energy balance. In other words: There is going to be no coal boom in an Obama administration.
Even if Obama did nothing but continue the status quo, coal is getting more expensive, coal plants are falling by the wayside, and the number of jobs provided by coal is falling, as it has been for some time:
Regardless, coal has been no friend to W.Va. or Ky. The areas that mine coal are the ones where poverty is concentrated:
That's the truth politicians refuse to tell the people of W.Va. and Ky.: The future is not in coal. Clinging to coal is clinging to a sinking ship.
Of course, it's crucial to couple this with a positive message. An Obama administration will not pander to poor Southern whites and then forget them in office. It will bring the resources of the federal government to bear on driving economic development in poor rural areas -- that means "green jobs," but more than just that. It means stimulating the development of other industries and revenue sources by spending on infrastructure, education, public works programs, and a decent social safety net. An Obama administration will try to pay these areas back for the sacrifices they've made in the name of providing the country with cheap electricity.
It probably wouldn't help him win W.Va. or Ky. -- it's unlikely anything could -- but it might cement his nascent national reputation as a straight shooter who tells the difficult truths instead of pandering. Maybe he could defy conventional wisdom by treating rural white voters like adults, helping them plan a real path to economic health and sustainability rather than telling them fairy tales about the continuing viability of earth's dirtiest fuel.
U.S.-Russia climate and energy efficiency cooperation: A neglected challenge
Comments View as Flat
TariffDude Posted 5:48 am
11 May 2008
typo?
6th paragraph, coal tax = gas tax?
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WWAGD?! Posted 6:09 am
11 May 2008
No Clinton No Votes
With Clinton out of the race, the number of voters coming to the Democratic polls would probably have dwindled by two-thirds.
Obama's "coalition" is based on...what? A bunch of 20 year old people living in Portland, Oregon who never finished their senior year at Reed College?
Texeme.Construct(Participant)
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David Roberts Posted 6:37 am
11 May 2008
Thanks TarriffDude
Fixed.
grist.org
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green8659 Posted 6:50 am
11 May 2008
One Option
One option would be to try to come up with a way to build alternative jobs for these coal miners. Coal is limited he needs to have a solid alternative to set their minds at ease and maybe he will have a chance.
Green and Environmental Website | Almighty Cleanse
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PearlFizzberry Posted 7:08 am
11 May 2008
Masters of War
What they should have done BEFORE now is treat this issue as seriously as it is. People in West Virginia and Kentucky know the times are changing, recognize the gravity, and naturally are anxious about it. This is not a peripheral, side-bar issue. It features the constellation of social, labor, and enviromental issues that must be addressed. Tossing in a vague mixed message about coal's future is ridiculous when the constituents are painfully aware they live at ground zero. Between MTR and lack of jobs, West Virginians are weary of sacrificing for the rest of the country and consistently, historically, being viewed as an afterthought. Politicians have been no friend to the persons of WV(a friend of coal, yes).
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mogmaar Posted 10:28 am
11 May 2008
"green jobs"
In "that means "green jobs," but more than just that. It means stimulating the development of other industries and revenue sources by spending on infrastructure, education, public works programs, and a decent social safety net." you imply that green jobs are just one small part of an economic and energy transformation. You're correct that what's needed is a vision for investment, infrastructure and revitalization in all areas of life.
What struck me is that 'green jobs' seems to try and encompass all those things and really be a vision for a rising tide that lifts all boats, and the lowest boats first. If the idea of green jobs is just a footnote as part of some larger vision for the transformation we're talking about, then we need to work hard to give that vision a name that we don't need to put in quotation marks and we can talk about to the people of WV and KY.
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Jason D Scorse Posted 2:28 pm
11 May 2008
nice post david
I think you hit all the right notes and put forth exactly the type of message Obama should deliver.
Message to Jabailo: How about a little wager- if Obama beats grandpa McSame you stop posting your inane second-grade comments on Grist. If McSame wins you get to tell us why a Republican has been duped into believing in global warming. Deal?
I teach environmental economics and blog at www.voicesofreason.info.
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Creed Posted 2:48 pm
11 May 2008
Coal, Miners, and West Virginia
Hi Folks,
I am a web designer who lives in north central West Virginia, in the heart of the Appalachian coalfields.
Recently, I had two opportunities to tour an underground coal mine.
Both times, our group descended 1000 feet into the ancient mountain, and then traveled through the mine to the face of the longwall. There we saw the cutting of the coal, which began it's formation in a primeval swamp, some 250 million years ago; deposited before the dinosaurs existed. It was very amazing and inspirational, too.
Perhaps someone may be interested in knowing a bit about the people who work in the mines and our cause concerning them.
Miner's Day Web Site
http://www.minersday.org/
Petition for a Commemorative National Miner's Day
http://www.rallycongress.com/minersdaymemorialassociation ...
Miners and their families have made vast contributions over the centuries, please be considerate as you plan the demise of coal. It'll be providing 50% of your electricity as you're doing it :-)
~ Creed
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johnmcc793 Posted 10:57 pm
11 May 2008
Lay off Sen. Clinton
Dave, you tend to run on a bit longer than your message requires. Senator Clinton may not be all things to all people but she has been a good and hard-working Senator and poltician. The baggage she carries is not all of her doing.
Cut her a bit of slack. She earned that much!
John McCormick
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amazingdrx Posted 11:34 pm
11 May 2008
Yep
Now that Barack looks like a sure winner, why not give the Clinton bashing a break? Time to make peace and get Hillary for VP. If possible.
Coal unemployment problems could be solved with natural gas development in coal country, hiring local miners into the gas drilling industry.
There is a lot of gas in the coal already, using natural bacteria to increae the conversion of coal to gas. That's a real clean coal technology. And good jobs providing clean energy for miners. They already operate heavy drilling equipment in mining.
They can adapt. Government ought to help with retraining funding. That's a plan miners and businesses in coal country could back as well as environmentalists. A lot of the methane from mines is escaping now, causing a huge GHG problem. As much of it as possible should be used for clean energy.
Barack ought to campaign on that, and energy conservation and renewable energy for local homes, schools, and buildings.
Along with a big switch to geo heat exchange heating replacing the use of natural gas in heating buildings, the increased gas supply from coal could make it a viable replacement for diesel powered trucks and trains. Natural gas runs fine in diesel engines.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Erik Hoffner Posted 5:10 am
12 May 2008
Alliance for Appalachia
Yes, green8659, alternative livelihood development is needed. Some of the major groups involved in fighting mountaintop removal formed the Alliance for Appalachia to do just that. Renewable energy, tourism, are initial targets.
Erik
The Orion Grassroots Network: 1,200+ grassroots groups working for conservation & more
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Pence Posted 7:36 am
12 May 2008
Obama to voters in Ky and WV
Being a KY resident, I am firmly convinced that Obama knows he doesn't have any chance to win KY or WV in November, whereas Hillary would most likely win both states in a general election against McCain as they voted Democratic both times Bill Clinton won the White House; therefore Obama is most likely to ignore KY and WV in the primary and general election...and unfortunately, if he does win the White House in 2008, he will most likely do nothing to help the people living in either state during his four or eight year presidency. If Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination, moderate to conservative middle class Americans, whether Democrat or Republican, will have no one fighting for them in Washington. Unfortunately, the Democratic Party abandoned moderate and conservative Americans long before Ronald Reagan, starting with the George McGovern nomination in 1972. The only Democratic presidential nominee since 1972 to even bothering to appeal to the moderate middle class was Bill Clinton, and his own Democratic Party abandoned him abandoned him during his two terms in office. Anything Obama says to voters in KY and WV will have no effect, because he doesn't identify with our needs.
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mwildfire Posted 11:31 pm
12 May 2008
I just voted
for Obama, and whoever ran against Rockefeller, that traitor to the Constitution.
I get pretty angry at the way the MSM portrays the coal issue here--neglecting to mention what should have been obvious at the Obama rally a month ago, that the coal issue is contentious here, with plenty of passion on BOTH sides. There are only 16,000 coal miners in WV now, and only 5500 of them are strip miners. Longwall mining is less destructive than mountaintop removal mining, but it still destroys water sources and homes it passes under. I agree that Obama blew an opportunity to reach out here with an honest message, centering on a "just transition" plank of renewable energy production jobs earmarked for former miners. But I don't think it's because he "doesn't care about the working class"--I think it's because his campaign's calculations showed he can only risk alienating so much of the Big Money interests. I support him largely on the forlorn hope that he'll turn out to be more than what he claims--that once he's in office he'll be in a position to challenge the corporations more directly. With Clinton or McCain we clearly get Business as Usual, and we CANNOT tolerate more of that--literally are unlikely even to survive it. The way Clintons have run her campaign is utterly contemptible.
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